January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS….not a bad run…,

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s instantaneous precip type. Snow accum map shows 1-3” above fall line.

i dunno dude--i dont see it. The only time we get close is between 180 and 186. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dunno dude--i dont see it. The only time we get close is between 180 and 186. 

Could be. The maps at 6hr resolution aren’t great. It’ll be different at 0z anyway. Hopefully we get something to work out in that Jan 21-31 window.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS….not a bad run…,

2 inches in 360 hours during the heart of winter is a pretty bad run

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 inches in 360 hours during the heart of winter is a pretty bad run

2 inches for an ensemble mean where all of it falls between the 23rd and 30th is a good run. 50-60% chance of >1" that far out is pretty good but ok

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

2 inches for an ensemble mean where all of it falls between the 23rd and 30th is a good run. 50-60% chance of >1" that far out is pretty good but ok

> 3inches, good run.

[Heisy]

Man, would be real nice to have a block or some kind of 50/50 here for that wave near Texas. It takes a decent path but has no resistance as it rounds the corner. Maybe if that 22/23rd system blows up and gives us a transient 50/50 it could work. This is all assuming euro has a grasp on the evolution of the pattern.

Regardless, still think there’s a signal for some kind of gradient event near 27-28, we’ll see….




.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Man, would be real nice to have a block or some kind of 50/50 here for that wave near Texas. It takes a decent path but has no resistance as it rounds the corner. Maybe if that 22/23rd system blows up and gives us a transient 50/50 it could work. This is all assuming euro has a grasp on the evolution of the pattern.

Regardless, still think there’s a signal for some kind of gradient event near 27-28, we’ll see….




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pretty good STJ input on that map!

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Man, would be real nice to have a block or some kind of 50/50 here for that wave near Texas. It takes a decent path but has no resistance as it rounds the corner. Maybe if that 22/23rd system blows up and gives us a transient 50/50 it could work. This is all assuming euro has a grasp on the evolution of the pattern.

Regardless, still think there’s a signal for some kind of gradient event near 27-28, we’ll see….




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Man I'm kinda fatigued by the whole prospect of looking for a system before to blowup into a 50/50 that helps us. I mean when is the last time that happened anyway? Lol

[Ji]

Man I'm kinda fatigued by the whole prospect of looking for a system before to blowup into a 50/50 that helps us. I mean when is the last time that happened anyway? Lol

Never

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I'm kinda fatigued by the whole prospect of looking for a system before to blowup into a 50/50 that helps us. I mean when is the last time that happened anyway? Lol

Never

Any of our past big storms?

[jayyy]

Never

Don’t think that’s true actually.


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[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore. 
 
Beautiful day at snowshoe 

Looks like they have a 2 inches on the ground?

I think they got 5”. We were here for the last inch or so.  But a lot of its blown into mini drifts. 

[Heisy]

Any of our past big storms?

I would imagine a huge % of our snowstorms come from taking advantage of cold laid down by prior waves, of course that happens in better patterns though.

GFS/euro big differences because of how they handle that day 6 system. Until that’s resolved hard to say how LR will evolve


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[AtlanticWx]

don't look at the 18z gfs for 384 hours out 

[Lowershoresadness]

25 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

don't look at the 18z gfs for 384 hours out 

don't tease us man,  I want to know what's not gonna happen

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Man, would be real nice to have a block or some kind of 50/50 here for that wave near Texas. It takes a decent path but has no resistance as it rounds the corner. Maybe if that 22/23rd system blows up and gives us a transient 50/50 it could work. This is all assuming euro has a grasp on the evolution of the pattern.

Regardless, still think there’s a signal for some kind of gradient event near 27-28, we’ll see….




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Yeah that could potentially be a very interesting look!  But as you say, a 50/50 would be nice.  Looking at the flow/shortwaves in Canada, north of that trough near Texas...is it possible they could carve out a quasi-confluent flow?  One would wish, but alas, no.  Too much to parse out this far in advance and too much going on in that flow to make any concrete determination now.

[Paleocene]

Did we shut the blinds yet

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Did we shut the blinds yet

I think we shit the blinds lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

40 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

don't look at the 18z gfs for 384 hours out 

Because a primary in west-central Indiana is perfect for us, along with an exiting high to the east!   But yeah...384 hours what are you going to do?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I think we shit the blinds lol

Messy clean-up!  Better get new ones!

[AtlanticWx]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Because a primary in west-central Indiana is perfect for us, along with an exiting high to the east!   But yeah...384 hours what are you going to do?

i mean if we really wanted to analyze that look verbatim it'd be a miller B transferring off the coast bc of that monster 50/50 low

[Maestrobjwa]

Personally I think the GEFS and EPS are both improved in the 11-14 day range 

Edit: I see I got a laughter emoji...so if I'm wrong please tell me, lol

[Mercurial]

8 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

Maybe nationwide that is true (I don’t know), but a quick search shows that at least parts of Japan have been experiencing record snowfall. “Heavy snowfall across Japan” and “some parts of the country are reporting 3 times their annual snowfall” and “December snowfall records set” and “24 hour snowfall records set” etc and this is all after last year’s crazy amount of snow in Japan

I live in Japan.  Have about 110" so far, which is about normal for this part of Hokkaido.  Honshu (the main island) has generally below normal snowpacks, as far as I can tell.  When you hear western media going off about 'record snow in Japan', usually it's just record snow on a particular date.  So for instance, 3 feet may be record snow for Jan 16, but def not an all time record.  Also confusing matters is that multi-feet dumps are quite common in the parts of Japan that face the Sea of Japan.  It's sort of like saying 6" is record snow at BWI or something.

[Mercurial]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

I keep an eye on this. Snow has been constantly otg since early December but less than is typical for mid Jan there it seems. Definitely been some mild/wet periods.

 

it's been a crap winter in sapporo proper.  They've missed out on many of the snowbands that have hit Otaru, Iwamizawa etc.  For that matter, the whole of Hokkaido just torched late last week, temps got into the mid 40s for two days which is quite unusual.

[DarkSharkWX]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Personally I think the GEFS and EPS are both improved in the 11-14 day range 

Edit: I see I got a laughter emoji...so if I'm wrong please tell me, lol

you aren't wrong, EPS/GEFS shifted colder

[Ralph Wiggum]

57 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i mean if we really wanted to analyze that look verbatim it'd be a miller B transferring off the coast bc of that monster 50/50 low

Haven't even looked today...been busy at work and sneaking in some football. But the ens means among the 3 major global modeling systems had weakness and a strong signal for LP in the 50/50 region as recent as 6z. Wouldn't be shocked to see us back into something....the overall h5 wasn't screaming big coastal low but definitely signaled overrunning gradient on all 3 ens means.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

you aren't wrong, EPS/GEFS shifted colder

And there's that weakness extension into the 50/50.

[IronTy]

45 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

it's been a crap winter in sapporo proper.  They've missed out on many of the snowbands that have hit Otaru, Iwamizawa etc.  For that matter, the whole of Hokkaido just torched late last week, temps got into the mid 40s for two days which is quite unusual.

Oh man Hokkaido is where I got my latest order of Wagyu from.  I'm getting ready for super bowl dinner!

[Daniel Boone]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And there's that weakness extension into the 50/50.

Definitely needing that 50-50.