January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

Exactly. This is what I keep telling people.  If the storm track continues to set up to our west with transient HP systems its not going to snow....  Until this changes, there is no reason to worry about water temps or warmer background temps.

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Guys,  please hear me out. This climate talk has really got to stop.  I don’t mind if you drop it in as an observation that directly relates to your post, it’s the tangential nature that goes too far. Stop. Please?  There’s a whole ass TWO forums where you can discuss the subject until your eyes pop out.  I’m strongly against politics or anything political on the weather side. Let’s bond over our common insanity regarding weather, ok?  So I ask (for now) that we adhere to this and leave the political and contentious shit where it belongs.  Thanks, you filthy animals.  

BUMP

 

Please, everyone. Please. 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring. 

I could see that.  Winter being a week or 2.   But as sure as I can be April will be cold and muddy and we will be saying where was this pattern in Feb.  

[Heisy]

Looks like 12z GEFS beefed up for the 27th


.

[CAPE]

12z GEFS has the storm that Ji has claimed.

[Ji]

I think psu or someone talked about 99-00 winter analog which had all our winter basically in late January

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS has the storm that Ji has claimed.

Looks like a prime set up for a zonal overrunning events just so long as the cold air can set up and press down from the north I think we would be in business from January 27th to about February 8th or so. 

[DarkSharkWX]

Not a bad look at all

[Yeoman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think psu or someone talked about 99-00 winter analog which had all our winter basically in late January

The GFS day 12 guess verifies a different analog 4 times a day

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring. 

I'd hold out for John Doe's forecast before getting excited

[Yeoman]

18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like a prime set up for a zonal overrunning events just so long as the cold air can set up and press down from the north I think we would be in business from January 27th to about February 8th or so. 

The 7th looks more likely based on the current squirrel population

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS…all after Day 10-But it is still there today….like the fact there are a couple of hits S&E….

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

BUMP

 

Please, everyone. Please. 

No one has made a climate change post in here since he said that so…

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think psu or someone talked about 99-00 winter analog which had all our winter basically in late January

It was pretty low in my analogs but what I said was it did register at least as somewhat similar and it was the best example of a Nina that started dreadful and ended ok. Actually it was the ONLY example so I said let’s root for that. 

[psuhoffman]

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore. 
 

Beautiful day at snowshoe 

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one has made a climate change post in here since he said that so…

the entire japan stuff was that. not everything is about you.  you know how I know it was drifting that way? Because western fringe flew to it like a moth to a porch light

[Ralph Wiggum]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS has the storm that Ji has claimed.

The Ji Overrun Event or the Ji Run Away From Winter 22-23 event. We'll see how this one plays out. He gets his name attached to it either way.

[anotherman]

the entire japan stuff was that. not everything is about you.  you know how I know it was drifting that way? Because western fringe flew to it like a moth to a porch light

Hahahaha wow

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

the entire japan stuff was that. not everything is about you. 

No the Japan stuff was about warm SST impacts.  No one said a word whether that was permanent or cyclical or anything regarding cause.  We have to be able to discuss pattern drivers like SSTs, PDO,AMO and such. Those things are cyclical but also could be affected by you know what. But they are integral to a pattern discussion unless you literally want no analysis and this just to be people posting snow maps and “it’s happening” memes. 

[Ji]

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore. 
 
Beautiful day at snowshoe 

Looks like they have a 2 inches on the ground?

[Ji]

Euro looks interesting at 240

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks interesting at 240

It’s got some digital blue for those above the fall line for the 23rd.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s got some digital blue for those above the fall line for the 23rd.

that fall line is awfully far away lol

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Ji Overrun Event or the Ji Run Away From Winter 22-23 event. We'll see how this one plays out. He gets his name attached to it either way.

Only because he claimed it after I described the setup as being favorable. 

[Ji]

240 actually has a western ridge

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Only because he claimed it after I described the setup as being favorable. 

ive been talking about this period for at least 3-4 days now

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

that fall line is awfully far away lol

Replace 992 low N of the lakes with a 1035 high, and then maybe we got something. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive been talking about this period for at least 3-4 days now

You did randomly say it HAD TO SNOW ON THE 28th. No particular reason why .

lol it's your storm. If it doesn't disappear in the next few days maybe you have a shot at starting a thread.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

that fall line is awfully far away lol

That’s instantaneous precip type. Snow accum map shows 1-3” above fall line.

[AtlanticWx]

the 27th setup is actually quite simple, j a wave sliding along a boundary. the complex part ab it is where the boundary would setup as a change in the two or three storms before it and whether or not they trend weaker or stronger could mean less/more cold air ergo setting up the boundary somewhere else