January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Stormfly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 5:40 AM, Solution Man said:

We’re so DONE

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Shut out for January looking more likely that's for sure.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:15 PM, stormtracker said:

No. I’m trying to buy a 50/50 low here. 

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Inflation has put the affordability of those out of reach this winter, I'm afraid!

[CAPE]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:17 PM, Terpeast said:

We see similar warm ssts off Japan. Wondering if Japan is also torching?

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You would think that would just jack up the snow totals for NW Japan, assuming the typical level of Siberian cold is draining across the Sea of Japan.

[IronTy]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:08 PM, frd said:

Ocean temps in the upper 40 s off NJ. , way above normal in certain locations.  If Feb or March doesn't offer a period of deep cold SSTs will remain above normal and primed for an early beach season.  If I can't ski I mine as well surf.   

 

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Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

[Ji]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:41 PM, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

[CAPE]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:54 PM, Ji said:

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:41 PM, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

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Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

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With those warm anomalies right off the coast, I'll root for a legit cold blast in this progressive flow regime. Heck of a thermal boundary might enhance coastal low development just offshore. You might not like it though.

[IronTy]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:54 PM, Ji said:

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:41 PM, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

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Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

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Clearly.  I got almost 15" from that storm last winter.  Atlantic is still warm though.  

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:17 PM, Terpeast said:

We see similar warm ssts off Japan. Wondering if Japan is also torching?

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I watch NHK (Japanese PBS)  a decent bit and their snowfall is well below normal nationwide this year.

[Terpeast]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I watch NHK (Japanese PBS)  a decent bit and their snowfall is well below normal nationwide this year.

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Ah, there we go. It's not just our problem. It's interesting (and unfortunate) how the similar land-ocean configuration leads to a long and wide swath of boiling ssts just offshore and how it's affecting seasonal snowfall in not just one place, but two (or more) places.

[CAPE]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I watch NHK (Japanese PBS)  a decent bit and their snowfall is well below normal nationwide this year.

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I keep an eye on this. Snow has been constantly otg since early December but less than is typical for mid Jan there it seems. Definitely been some mild/wet periods.

 

[RDM]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I watch NHK (Japanese PBS)  a decent bit and their snowfall is well below normal nationwide this year.

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Yes - my wife and I watch NHK all the time.  The normal trade winds that bring in the moisture of the sea of Japan onto Honshu are out of whack this year.  Fuji san is abnormally low on snow too (climbed and skied Fuji long ago - great experience).  Heading to Japan in a couple weeks for a family wedding.  Had hoped to visit some of the sights in the mountains (Zao, or Nagoya) to get at least a temporary snow-fix, but not sure we'll do that this time.  

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:17 PM, Terpeast said:

We see similar warm ssts off Japan. Wondering if Japan is also torching?

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I checked Japan temps are at or below normal.  Also, why would Japan be torching from warm waters to the east of Japan that torching effect would be all points east downstream.  I will say that the warm SSTs off of Japan is most likely fueling the crazy weather pattern crashing into California and then the pattern redeveloping further east to cause tornadoes in the Southeastern States and the lack of snow in the Middle Atlantic States.  We really need to stop thinking locally and start looking globally as to what is going on with sea surface temperatures.  Any localities that are east or northeast of a warm body of water such as the Pacific or the Atlantic is experiencing above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall.  In closing the state of the SST's are in large part in control of where the moisture and warm air transport is taking place around the northern hemisphere, this is locking the cold air well north over north America.   In addition, the strong onshore flow off the Pacific is eroding the cold air in western Canada basically putting up a wall to not allow any southward progression of cold air hence no Alberta Clippers and so forth.

 

Looking at posts above seems it is a problem all along the northern hemisphere with the warm SST's geeze worse than I thought.  The only way then the pattern changes is by cooling the SST's down. 

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:54 PM, Ji said:

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:41 PM, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

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Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

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Not the case for those upstream from the Atlantic in Europe.  I was watching from the mountains of Switzerland there was like zero snow the ski lifts were closed and they were getting ready to cut grass. 

[AtlanticWx]

the key takeaway i've been seeing from ensembles is that TPV lobe trending stronger; the stronger it trends the closer we get to a CMCE type look

[Terpeast]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:37 PM, AtlanticWx said:

the key takeaway i've been seeing from ensembles is that TPV lobe trending stronger; the stronger it trends the closer we get to a CMCE type look

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I noticed that too, at least on the gefs. Maybe we can sneak into an overrunner somewhere around the last week of Jan

[AtlanticWx]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:39 PM, Terpeast said:

I noticed that too, at least on the gefs. Maybe we can sneak into an overrunner somewhere around the last week of Jan

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yeah as CAPE said that timeframe from 27th onwards looks interesting. and heights have def been lowering past few runs on GEFS towards the end of jan

continued trends should squash the se ridge enough for a nice overrunning pattern around here & we're still 10 days out so a lot can change either for the good or bad

[CAPE]

CFS develops a pretty legit looking -NAO moving into Feb with the TPV stretched underneath, keeping heights low off the Canadian Maritimes. Pops a bit of a PNA ridge too. Cold at the surface. With all the gloom and doom about February, we can dream a little lol.

[Terpeast]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:46 PM, CAPE said:

CFS develops a pretty legit looking -NAO moving into Feb with the TPV stretched underneath, keeping heights low off the Canadian Maritimes. Pops a bit of a PNA ridge too. Cold at the surface. With all the gloom and doom about February, we can dream a little lol.

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Wasn’t the CFS a torch through and through just a few days ago? Either it’s picking up on a new and more favorable trend, or it’s just flip flopping. 

[WesternFringe]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:06 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I watch NHK (Japanese PBS)  a decent bit and their snowfall is well below normal nationwide this year.

Maybe nationwide that is true (I don’t know), but a quick search shows that at least parts of Japan have been experiencing record snowfall. “Heavy snowfall across Japan” and “some parts of the country are reporting 3 times their annual snowfall” and “December snowfall records set” and “24 hour snowfall records set” etc and this is all after last year’s crazy amount of snow in Japan

[CAPE]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:52 PM, Terpeast said:

Wasn’t the CFS a torch through and through just a few days ago? Either it’s picking up on a new and more favorable trend, or it’s just flip flopping. 

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Probably the latter lol. I haven't looked at it lately.

[clueless]

Isn’t Jame Reynolds the met who lives in Japan?  I follow him on Twitter for my Japan snow fix. But Elmo screwed up my TL and that place is worthless to me now. He never shows up on my feed. (Did he leave?)

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:52 PM, WesternFringe said:

Maybe nationwide that is true (I don’t know), but a quick search shows that at least parts of Japan have been experiencing record snowfall. “Heavy snowfall across Japan” and “some parts of the country are reporting 3 times their annual snowfall” and “December snowfall records set” and “24 hour snowfall records set” etc and this is all after last year’s crazy amount of snow in Japan




Hmm

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Hmm that supports my theory of warmer waters offshore affecting downstream not Japan.  However, with that said they are experiencing 2009-2010 types of winter season that we did LOL.  

[Ji]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:21 PM, CAPE said:

You would think that would just jack up the snow totals for NW Japan, assuming the typical level of Siberian cold is draining across the Sea of Japan.

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if the CFS had been right this season, we would be having a 09-10 type winter

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:24 AM, Bob Chill said:

I loved that movie. The family table scenes are second to none. Lol.

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That is literally the first thing I think about when I see an image from that movie, lolol The BEST

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 1/15/2023 at 4:54 PM, Ji said:

if the CFS had been right this season, we would be having a 09-10 type winter

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Yeah I have no clue what that model is good for, lol

[Prestige Worldwide]

Meh

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 5:09 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:

Meh

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That my friend is happening looks right to me.  Hmm That would yield a pretty significant severe weather event Tennessee Valley to Mid-Atlantic looks similar to February 2017 set up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/15/2023 at 3:39 PM, Terpeast said:

I noticed that too, at least on the gefs. Maybe we can sneak into an overrunner somewhere around the last week of Jan

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Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring. 

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 1/15/2023 at 5:13 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring. 

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February 2003 Presidents Day

[MDScienceTeacher]

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:54 PM, Ji said:

  On 1/15/2023 at 2:41 PM, IronTy said:

Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

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Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

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Exactly. This is what I keep telling people.  If the storm track continues to set up to our west with transient HP systems its not going to snow....  Until this changes, there is no reason to worry about water temps or warmer background temps.