January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[pazzo83]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

Heading up tomorrow.  Will be in the pool/hot tub tomorrow afternoon and on the slopes with my kids Sunday and Monday.  There are ways to survive this with your sanity intact.  

i love Snowshoe - haven't been in years, but I miss it.

[nj2va]

Gained 1 min 18 seconds of daylight today. Will be 2 minutes a day in ~2 weeks. 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Gained 1 min 18 seconds of daylight today. Will be 2 minutes a day in ~2 weeks. 

Great 2 more mins a day everyone can clearly see my ugly mug. 

[pazzo83]

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Gained 1 min 18 seconds of daylight today. Will be 2 minutes a day in ~2 weeks. 

sun angle season just mere weeks away!!  lol

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny...it has trended slightly weaker and east with SER run over run since 0z yet the Western ridge has nudged west run over run since 0z. Would have expected a more robust and well placed Nina-esque SER with the PAC looks. I think guidance is struggling right now pretty badly out past day 7-10.

Could be an elongated trough but I am sure there would still be ways for storms to cut especially early on in the period. 

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

sun angle season just mere weeks away!!  lol

Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Too late. 

Towel already thrown. 

Remember I forecasted a +3 Feb canonical nina to finish the winter.

And no, it is not a reverse psychology trick I’m trying to pull on Mother Nature…

…

…

(ok, maybe it is…)

+3??? at this rate we will be +5-6 if you factor the nighttime lows and daytime highs. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

+3??? at this rate we will be +5-6

Probably. 

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

lol no doubt about it

[IronTy]

59 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

Yeah that's what we seem to do best.  Cold and windy in March.  

[Ji]

2020's will be negative.  That's right, they will SUBTRACT snow from previous decades.

So global warming was in the 70s 80s and 90s...we are in the blessed era

[Fozz]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade.  There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming.  I have lived through three of them so far.  Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades.  Toughen  up people, or move further north.

A lot of old people say that it used to snow a lot more when they were kids. Makes sense, since they remember the 60s (plus 1958)

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

March can still bring real snow. The massive -NAO and deep trough will happen in April.

[Jrlg1181]

A few snow flakes , light snow showers made it over the Apps into Waynesboro 2nite, usually doesn't happen , but it's a bit breezy down here 2nite so that'll do it...

[Maestrobjwa]

0z GEFS SE ridgey looking more flatty again  See if we can get a trend going...

[jayyy]

0z GEFS SE ridgey looking more flatty again  See if we can get a trend going...

The pronouncement of the SER is going to waffle more than Ji over the next week and change on guidance.


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[jayyy]

Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

I’d take a giant ass trough parked over the EC for all of March with winter / spring air masses battling it out nearby. We’d likely get snow out of that. April is probably what you’re referring to, which is when we’ll be 10 degrees below average with above average rainfall.


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[CAPE]

9 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Wow, the 60's were rocking.

Low solar activity and a lot of -NAO years.

[WxUSAF]

For illustrative purposes…when you have cold air masses available to tap, you can get good outcomes.
 

[psuhoffman]

EPS fully caved to the gefs. Dumps the trough into the west and pumps the SE ridge.  But we already knew. Frankly, it could have been the CRAS, as soon as anything showed that didn’t we all go “yup that’s exactly what’s going to happen”. 

[psuhoffman]

look at the ridge axis along the west coast then look at the extent the trough is stretching to avoid progressing east. That was what I meant the other night when I said this isn’t the pacific. Even when the pac is perfect there seems to be resistance in the flow to getting a trough into the east for any meaningful length of time. Something else other then just the pac is feeding it. 

And this is why a big -epo arctic flow pattern isn’t actually correlated to snow here. This is actually the way more common outcome from an epo ridge.  A -epo +pna is a rare combo. It’s difficult to get that longwave configuration. A -epo usually dumps the cold west of us and pumps a SE ridge.  
 

That’s why a way better pattern for snow here has always been ridging across central Canada and the NAO domain. But that combo usually comes with a +epo and it’s not a really cold look which is why the vast majority of our snow, even if you go back to the 1800s when we got a lot more, has always come with temps near or even above freezing!  Arctic cross polar flow patterns are 1) rare and 2) not even usually a good longwave look to get an amplified storm off the east coast. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

look at the ridge axis along the west coast then look at the extent the trough is stretching to avoid progressing east. That was what I meant the other night when I said this isn’t the pacific. Even when the pac is perfect there seems to be resistance in the flow to getting a trough into the east for any meaningful length of time. Something else other then just the pac is feeding it. 

And this is why a big -epo arctic flow pattern isn’t actually correlated to snow here. This is actually the way more common outcome from an epo ridge.  A -epo +pna is a rare combo. It’s difficult to get that longwave configuration. A -epo usually dumps the cold west of us and pumps a SE ridge.  
 

That’s why a way better pattern for snow here has always been ridging across central Canada and the NAO domain. But that combo usually comes with a +epo and it’s not a really cold look which is why the vast majority of our snow, even if you go back to the 1800s when we got a lot more, has always come with temps near or even above freezing!  Arctic cross polar flow patterns are 1) rare and 2) not even usually a good longwave look to get an amplified storm off the east coast. 

 

That h5 look is a bit deceptive tho esp with a CPF fighting a weak/flat SER. Surface temps are alot colder. That's probably one of the better looks we could have given the Nina. I didn't see you note the stout 50/50 being depicted either?

That's a less complex potential path to victory. Classic mid season overrunning setup. Posted wrt this yesterday on here via gefs....good to see eps signal as well:

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That h5 look is a bit deceptive tho esp with a CPF fighting a weak/flat SER. Surface temps are alot colder. That's probably one of the better looks we could have given the Nina. I didn't see you note the stout 50/50 being depicted either?

That's a less complex potential path to victory. Classic mid season overrunning setup. Posted wrt this yesterday on here via gefs....good to see eps signal as well:

 

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

Guess I should have been more specific. I was implying more 2m LL cold and not necessarily suggesting snow. So maybe 'classic' was a poor choice of words. Frozen would have been better. Absolutely agree with that wrt I'm sure that look will morph into something that we've seen already this winter. Hope a reshuffle is in the works soon.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.

[Weather Will]

This year we will need luck to pull a rabbit out of the hat.  I think the last week of January into early February there is a shot.  WB 6Z GEFS and overnight GEFS extended.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

It looks like another brief window before we go full-on Feb Nina. At least that's what virtually every LR piece of modeling seems to agree on at this point. Then of course a BN March...but did we really expect otherwise?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

This year we will need luck to pull a rabbit out of the hat.  I think the last week of January into early February there is a shot.  WB 6Z GEFS and overnight GEFS extended.

Narrator: there’s no rabbit in the hat. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.

We always lag so our perspective is tempered but the NE and upper MW are getting their weenies beat into the dirt (wet dirt). I do believe there'll be a snap back of sorts for them. I'm nearly certain. Nothing epic, just some sort of climo catchup. If that happens, we'll prob get involved too. Having no snow on the ground to our west and north is another checkmark in the crappy column. Fixing that would help by default