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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2023 at 6:42 PM, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS flips the pattern in the Pacific exactly opposite...totally reverses all the blues and reds...and the result is exactly the same for us.  

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Not much else to say really.  Wait for Feb and watch the weeds start coming up through the driveway crap s. SER will not be denied.  

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Bob Chill
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There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
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I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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  On 1/13/2023 at 6:46 PM, Heisy said:

GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it.


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A SSWE early Feb in 2018 is speculated to have caused what happened that March/April.  It's plausible an event in late January could start to impact by the second half of Feb.  But we've seen the SE ridge win in every other scenario so why are we confident the results would benefit us?  It could just dump arctic air into the west again and pump the SE ridge to the north pole.  

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 4:15 PM, Maestrobjwa said:
I don't think the "why" part is settled, tbh I mean like he said it could be some of THAT, but it sounds like others things are at play too. While it is indeed the worst period, do we give it longer to see if it's permanent?
But trust me, I'm in a better place than I was 5 days ago. I'm just starting to see through the facade that this means more in life that is perpetuated by overexposure to this forum. You get exposed to a perceived negative long enough you start to believe it objectively is and life is worse because of it.

Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever.

We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm.

Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter.


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Heisy

Heisy

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All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong.

Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR.

We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win

08895f38c29c96f54ecf6cb1e0927ab2.jpg
13740bb87ded164760b37a370a717b97.jpg


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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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  On 1/13/2023 at 6:57 PM, Heisy said:

All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong.

Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR.

We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win

08895f38c29c96f54ecf6cb1e0927ab2.jpg
13740bb87ded164760b37a370a717b97.jpg


.

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The euro still ends up nothing but rainstorms, it just mocks us by doing it with a perfect pattern. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 6:26 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Quite a "Liszt" of "Grieg"ances there!!

(ETA:  OK, I'll "Bach" off with the lousy puns, I'm done "Chopin" around for laughs!)

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  On 1/13/2023 at 6:29 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach

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<Grabs spray bottle>  No! NO you two!

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2023 at 7:03 PM, WxUSAF said:

That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough.

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EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 7:41 PM, WxUSAF said:

EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

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I'm starting to wonder whether the period after D10 might be the time to look at to see if we can get a change...(or if whatever happens D10 can lead to something). I mean ain't no promises, of course...just wondering.

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 7:41 PM, WxUSAF said:

EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

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Looks better than it's previous run in regards to beating back the SER.

Quite the model battle right now in the 10 - 16 day time frame.

Gefs vs Eps/geps

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2023 at 9:00 PM, CAPE said:

Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies?

 

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he’s always been pompous af. even earlier in the year he said the pattern was unbelievable. like a SE US KU pattern. and slithered back on it 

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