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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Enjoy it bro. I was thinking of taking my family up this weekend too, but my kid got sick. Might try again in Feb if we don’t torch so bad. 

I'm sorry that sucks.  I had to cancel a trip to snowshoe last winter when the kids got sick.  If the long range guidance is correct Feb could get really ugly... if so my full attention will turn to my PD trip out west shortly lol.  Another option is Vermont.  Killington is really awesome for the kids.  They have a really good kids program, and the back side of the mountain isn't very crowded and has very easy green trails all the way down to the base.  It's really not THAT much further than snowshoe and doable if you take a day off and make it a 3 day weekend.  Even if we torch odds are Vermont will find its way to a snowstorm or two sometime in February, I would imagine...god I hope so or they are FOOKED because they have absolutely no base right now and ski season is kinda half their economy.   Even past torch years like 98 were NOTHING like this.  I went up to Vermont a couple times that winter and they actually did ok because enough of those rain storms were wet snow up there and they had a pretty good base.  I can't remember a year where mid January the ski resorts up there had absolutely no natural snow base at all.  

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You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS flips the pattern in the Pacific exactly opposite...totally reverses all the blues and reds...and the result is exactly the same for us.  

Not much else to say really.  Wait for Feb and watch the weeds start coming up through the driveway crap s. SER will not be denied.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it.


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A SSWE early Feb in 2018 is speculated to have caused what happened that March/April.  It's plausible an event in late January could start to impact by the second half of Feb.  But we've seen the SE ridge win in every other scenario so why are we confident the results would benefit us?  It could just dump arctic air into the west again and pump the SE ridge to the north pole.  

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jayyy

jayyy

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I don't think the "why" part is settled, tbh I mean like he said it could be some of THAT, but it sounds like others things are at play too. While it is indeed the worst period, do we give it longer to see if it's permanent?
But trust me, I'm in a better place than I was 5 days ago. I'm just starting to see through the facade that this means more in life that is perpetuated by overexposure to this forum. You get exposed to a perceived negative long enough you start to believe it objectively is and life is worse because of it.

Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever.

We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm.

Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter.


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Heisy

Heisy

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All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong.

Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR.

We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win

08895f38c29c96f54ecf6cb1e0927ab2.jpg
13740bb87ded164760b37a370a717b97.jpg


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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong.

Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR.

We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win

08895f38c29c96f54ecf6cb1e0927ab2.jpg
13740bb87ded164760b37a370a717b97.jpg


.

The euro still ends up nothing but rainstorms, it just mocks us by doing it with a perfect pattern. 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Quite a "Liszt" of "Grieg"ances there!!

(ETA:  OK, I'll "Bach" off with the lousy puns, I'm done "Chopin" around for laughs!)

 

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach

<Grabs spray bottle>  No! NO you two!

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough.

EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

I'm starting to wonder whether the period after D10 might be the time to look at to see if we can get a change...(or if whatever happens D10 can lead to something). I mean ain't no promises, of course...just wondering.

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Chris78

Chris78

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 

Looks better than it's previous run in regards to beating back the SER.

Quite the model battle right now in the 10 - 16 day time frame.

Gefs vs Eps/geps

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