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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
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There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
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I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2023 at 12:25 PM, CAPE said:

:yikes:

lol you would think. Waves running the boundary with cold pressing seems to be the simplest way given the pattern progression as depicted. Pretty persistent hints of that on the means beyond the 20th. Eff anything complicated or amped.

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But you and I both know that when the wavelengths between systems become more favorable into late winter during Ninas is when we traditionally score. I am expecting nothing less this year probably into March. I think it was you that mentioned it in a post earlier...drag the boundary South behind a storm and sneak a wave behind right on it's heels as the boundary is under us. If this year's rapid sw progression is showing us anything it is that the aforementioned simple setup is how we are going to score when those wavelengths shrink. It's really the only way right now. Everything else is failing and there is no way to sugarcoat that. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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  On 1/13/2023 at 12:37 PM, CAPE said:

I still think the 22nd presents a chance. GEFS is a tad warm but has had a strong signal. Both the EPS and CMC ens are colder and suggest a suppressed wave. 

1674399600-4Wj0reEl64M.png

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Today's system was somewhat modeled like this in the same range. It was more of a thread the needle look but the 22nd thing isn't exactly a clear path to victory either. Hope we can fluke into something in this mess before we have to rely on the shorter wavelengths thing i noted above or some mega convoluted mid March system.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Today's system was somewhat modeled like this in the same range. It was more of a thread the needle look but the 22nd thing isn't exactly a clear path to victory either. Hope we can fluke into something in this mess before we have to rely on the shorter wavelengths thing i noted above or some mega convoluted mid March system.

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We did pretty good with a storm in March of 18, and I believe that was also a Nina transitioning neutral.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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  On 1/13/2023 at 12:48 PM, CAPE said:

We did pretty good with a storm in March of 18, and I believe that was also a Nina transitioning neutral.

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It's gonna happen and ppl will be complaining why couldnt we get this in January etc etc. But I'm a believer of just accepting whatever nature throws at us. Doesn't usually work how or when we want it to.

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AtlanticWx

AtlanticWx

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 12:53 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's gonna happen and ppl will be complaining why couldnt we get this in January etc etc. But I'm a believer of just accepting whatever nature throws at us. Doesn't usually work how or when we want it to.

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snow in march is still snow, idk why everyone's so picky ab snow

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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  On 1/13/2023 at 1:22 PM, AtlanticWx said:

snow in march is still snow, idk why everyone's so picky ab snow

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probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

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AtlanticWx

AtlanticWx

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 1:44 PM, BristowWx said:

probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

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marchs been pretty reliable recently tbh, i wouldn't count it out. a solid 3-5" snowstorm like last year would make a lot of ppl happy

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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  On 1/13/2023 at 11:10 AM, WxUSAF said:

EPS and GEPS still look quite favorable. GEFS never moves the trough east of the Rockies and the SE ridge flexes. Differences are only in the D9-11 range too, so we should start to see some convergence in the next couple days? I think the GEFS evolution makes sense eventually where it goes toward a more canonical  Niña pattern…but hopefully rushing it?

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I'd imagine if there's gonna be a cave we see like...in the 2-3 days? For sniffing out the general patter D9-11, is pretty close. Seems the EPS/GEPS think the abnormal nino-like pattern continues but with more cold. Now so far, despite the frustrations with temps...has this pattern really acted like a nina? I mean I don't remember any being this warm on the front end, tbh. And of course what's happening in California, the split flow thing...Any history of another nina that behaved like this one?

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 2:36 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd imagine if there's gonna be a cave we see like...in the 2-3 days? For sniffing out the general patter D9-11, is pretty close. Seems the EPS/GEPS think the abnormal nino-like pattern continues but with more cold. Now so far, despite the frustrations with temps...has this pattern really acted like a nina? I mean I don't remember any being this warm on the front end, tbh. And of course what's happening in California, the split flow thing...Any history of another nina that behaved like this one?

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Don’t know. A lot of un-Niña like behavior so far for sure. Some folks seem convinced we we get the canonical February Niña look, which is not a good one for us. Others think the weakening Niña will keep things unusual. Throw in some signs of the strat PV getting disrupted and will be interesting. Hopefully we can claw out of a position where this winter is one of those we don’t speak about in polite company.

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2023 at 1:44 PM, BristowWx said:

probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

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Don't forget March 1993.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 1:44 PM, BristowWx said:

probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

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I never understood the "saving winter" concept. Most snow weenies enjoy winter for the snow. So when it snows in March, isn't that still snow? If it snowed in Oct and none the rest of the winter did we "save winter" or did we enjoy the snow? I guess I just have a different mindset. I don't care for it stcking around, getting crusty, dirty, annoying, etc. Sure, a few days is cool, but like post marital sex, ya take it when you can get it even it only last briefly.

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Blue Dream

Blue Dream

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 2:55 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

I've had snow the 2nd week of April that accumulated and stuck around for 36 hours. March is a winter month, period. Maybe not deep winter or peak climo but that's like saying late Nov or early Dec snow sucks. 

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March snow is worlds better than January rain, just saying.

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
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  On 1/13/2023 at 2:42 PM, DarkSharkWX said:

this will prob be a backloaded winter esp if SSWE event advertised by LR models verifies

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It can't be anything but backloaded after this month.

 

  On 1/13/2023 at 2:55 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

I've had snow the 2nd week of April that accumulated and stuck around for 36 hours. March is a winter month, period. Maybe not deep winter or peak climo but that's like saying late Nov or early Dec snow sucks. 

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Imo, March snow is weird because of the length of the day.  In these parts, March 15 day length is like late September.

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