January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Kevin Reilly]

18 minutes ago, anotherman said:

• New York City: This winter has gone the ninth longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Jan. 29.
• Philadelphia: This winter has gone the 12th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 3, although no snow fell in the winter of 1972-73.
• Atlantic City: This winter has gone the 13th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 16.
• Baltimore: This winter has gone the 11th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 21.
• Washington: This winter has gone the 16th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 23.

Hey At least we are on pace.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?


.

it’ll be tough for ensemble means to do that until a shortwave is identified, which is absolute hell in this type of pattern

[Ralph Wiggum]

What phase is the current WDI? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Careful someone will be along soon to tell us because there isn’t an epo ridge extending to Moscow it won’t be cold enough. 

But is is stable? We need stability in here dammit!! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?


.

Pretty sure that's right where we want it at this range. Oh wait (flips frantically thru weenie handbook) nevermind. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?
 

Not overly. I’m more concerned it’s just wrong about the pattern. There is a wave around the 20th that’s going to go north of us. But it’s also very likely the next wave around the 23-25 does also. Imo it’s likely to take multiple waves to establish a cold enough regime. That puts our first good opportunity near the very end of the eps run. And by then the war is getting beat down and it looks like a more favorable setup Imo. The mean does start to increase some at the very end. I bet if it went out another 72 hours you would see something. 
 

But ya it is concerning that the pattern on the eps only seems to cool temps to near avg.  It should be way colder. But we aren’t having that talk again. Personally if we get the eps pattern and it’s too warm I’d rather find that out and know. Then at least we can end the debate!  

[Rtd208]

It's going to take alot to convince me we are moving into a better pattern. I will start to buy in once we are within 5-7 days. As far as specific storm threats we will need to be within 3-4 days. I would rather be pleasantly surprised then highly disappointed. Keeping expectations in check for now. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

No defined 50-50 and not a 5SD -NAO, so maybe we’ll get lucky with some front end sleet? Congrats Burlington.

Not even them. In the new normal, they flip to heavy rain after 1.5" of slop.

[AtlanticWx]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

not much support from EPS & GEPS tho. GEPS has a transient SE ridge but we turn to cold again w/ no end in sight at the end of the run

[Ji]

what a disaster this thread is

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

what a disaster this thread is

It was started specifically because the other one was a disaster. Oh shit!

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

what a disaster this thread is

If everything you come in contact with is a disaster what’s the common denominator? 

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

not much support from EPS & GEPS tho. GEPS has a transient SE ridge but we turn to cold again w/ no end in sight at the end of the run

All 3 are better than now though so we’ll get what we get and make a huge fit. Is that how that saying goes?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 are better than now though so we’ll get what we get and make a huge fit. Is that how that saying goes?

Yep they all look reasonably favorable going forward, and we are getting into prime snow climo. There should be chances if something close to those h5 looks verify. Beyond that, we just can't know.

[AtlanticWx]

tbh, this has nothing to do with the current patterns and is rlly just my opinion, but id be surprised if we break 10" at any of the airports this year without a decent storm

imo we might get 2016-17 similar totals at all airports (and also possibly a snowy march based on a preliminary look at it)

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

If everything you come in contact with is a disaster what’s the common denominator? 

Man, this winter broke you

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It was started specifically because this winter is a disaster. Oh snappp!

FYP

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I heard on the news the latest first snow ever in NYC is 29 Ian.  What’s our latest snow at DCA?  I know someone knows this.  

When is the month of Ian?  Is that on a secret calendar between Jan and Feb? 

[Heisy]

18z GEFS back to looking decent. Improvement off the 12z run. With how ridiculous the OP run is there’s probably some members also doing crazy stuff with shortwaves going over the ridge




.

[Weather Will]

Can we start a November 2023 thread?  18z GFS is horrible through January.  WB long range Canadian has a normal to below normal Thanksgiving with above normal precipitation.

[Yardstickgozinya]

 I don't know how many of you got to see the White Hill prison riots of 1989 . I actually did . That was the last time I ever got to see two dumpster fires at once until today.

[mdhokie]

gfs is a lot better for western md. Jackpot in WV mountains. When do we start a thread?

[paxpatriot]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

what a disaster this thread is

Speak for yourself. I actually used the term “fecal blinds” in a conversation this afternoon. 

[stormtracker]

So glad I lifted the ban on the word fuck.

Fuck. Here we are.  Fuck.

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So glad I lifted the ban on the word fuck.

Fuck. Here we are.  Fuck.

We’re fucked. We’ve never been this fucked in the history of keeping track of weather fuckery

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So glad I lifted the ban on the word fuck.

Fuck. Here we are.  Fuck.

And it didn’t even buy us dinner first 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Can you fuckers please watch your language?

[BristowWx]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So glad I lifted the ban on the word fuck.

Fuck. Here we are.  Fuck.

Did you keep your rental agreement?  If not you are fucked! 

[anotherman]

Did you keep your rental agreement?  If not you are fucked! 

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Did you keep your rental agreement?  If not you are fucked! 

One of my top 5 movies