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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we just bought a house (first time living in a house in like 20 years) - i need to shovel my own gd snow at least once.  Come on.

Congrats, we just did the same in Silver Spring. The previous owner left behind two snowshovels, and I brought my own that I already had, so damn it I'm going to be out there with my 9 year old shoveling enormous piles out of our driveway before March!

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With a very active pattern over the next 10+ days, the last 2 GFS and GGEM runs show how eventually one of those can work out for us for some frozen precipitation. One cutter goes through and blows up as a transient 50-50 low and provides enough cold air and/or a far enough south storm track for the subsequent storm to put us on the happy side of the thermal boundary. But even this is still after January 20 as the pattern is hopefully transitioning.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

61A42BAB-10CA-4188-A1A6-FFC3324A4D7B.thumb.png.8f52e02ab39a3198866d32b153af0b42.png

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I like the 23-25th window for some potential wintry weather. At the moment it appears to be a back to back storm situation where we’re going to have to rely on the first storm (likely a cutter) to be a make-shift 50/50, which could in turn force the storm track south of us for storm #2 and keep enough cold air in place to make something happen.

Another “we need the timing to be right” ordeal doesn’t sound great obviously, but it is our next “threat” nonetheless.


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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

61A42BAB-10CA-4188-A1A6-FFC3324A4D7B.thumb.png.8f52e02ab39a3198866d32b153af0b42.png

Lots of cold air available nearby at least, but it’s probably one of those cutter—boundary wave sort of patterns that @psuhoffman is dreading. Crap ton better than we have now though I guess.

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