Report: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

[bluewave]

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1797385397422432279
 

The black line on top is the 2024 sea sfc temp in mid FL Keys reef. The solid horizontal purple line is the bleaching threshold. We’ve already reached it, ~1 month ahead of 2023 - the worst mass bleaching event ever. To bleach, it would need to be sustained, but not a good sign

 

 

[GaWx]

The Key West buoy’s water temp has come down considerably since the high peaked at a record high for May of 92.3 late on 5/29/24. It is now down to 86.7, which compares to 90.0 at the same time on May 29 & 30. So, a 3.3F drop essentially. A wetter pattern in recent days has been a big help. Watching this area carefully especially because of the threat of more coral bleaching as occurred in 2023:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1

[bluewave]

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

It stops when the protogene of the cause is removed from the system. 

[GaWx]

On 6/4/2024 at 9:18 AM, GaWx said:

The Key West buoy’s water temp has come down considerably since the high peaked at a record high for May of 92.3 late on 5/29/24. It is now down to 86.7, which compares to 90.0 at the same time on May 29 & 30. So, a 3.3F drop essentially. A wetter pattern in recent days has been a big help. Watching this area carefully especially because of the threat of more coral bleaching as occurred in 2023:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1

 The much wetter pattern vs last year at the same time has been helping immensely with keeping Key West and vicinity SSTs significantly lower. Last year June 10-24 KW buoy water averaged an astounding ~32C/89.6F thanks to the combo of drier than normal/near constant sunshine during the day/GW. This year that same period has averaged just under 30C/86.0F to the great relief of the coral.

Key West Buoy data:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/KYWF1.txt

[GaWx]

On 6/3/2024 at 7:17 AM, bluewave said:

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1797385397422432279
 

The black line on top is the 2024 sea sfc temp in mid FL Keys reef. The solid horizontal purple line is the bleaching threshold. We’ve already reached it, ~1 month ahead of 2023 - the worst mass bleaching event ever. To bleach, it would need to be sustained, but not a good sign

 

 

Some good news for the Keys coral. After a record warm late May by a large amt and already into bleaching levels, 2024 SST (black) actually cooled to below the bleaching level (purple line) in June thanks largely to cooling from increased clouds/rainfall and only is near the bleaching level so far this month as opposed to above it. This is well below last July (see below in gray):

 

[GaWx]

JB has been harping on a significant cooling of oceans overall in recent months. He’s implying this is due to reduced underwater seismic activity and is thus very excited. But the problem I have is finding this cooldown! I’m still seeing near record warmth in many areas. Thus I’m confused.
 
 Does anyone here know about a significant worldwide averaged ocean cooling? If so please post any links.

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

JB has been harping on a significant cooling of oceans overall in recent months. He’s implying this is due to reduced underwater seismic activity and is thus very excited. But the problem I have is finding this cooldown! I’m still seeing near record warmth in many areas. Thus I’m confused.
 
 Does anyone here know about a significant worldwide averaged ocean cooling? If so please post any links.

https://bgr.com/science/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/
 

Recently he’s been referencing this article. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

https://bgr.com/science/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/
 

Recently he’s been referencing this article. 

Thanks. JB putting a lot of weight on this article isn’t surprising because it fits his narrative of cooling oceans after a drop in underwater seismic levels.

1. But and this isn’t directed at you: who’s Joshua Hawkins? Not a met/climatologist:

“Josh Hawkins has been writing for over a decade, covering science, gaming, and tech culture. He also is a top-rated product reviewer with experience in extensively researched product comparisons, headphones, and gaming devices.

Whenever he isn’t busy writing about tech or gadgets, he can usually be found enjoying a new world in a video game, or tinkering with something on his computer.”

https://bgr.com/author/joshua-hawkins/

2. Hawkins says this:

“The Atlantic Ocean is cooling at an exponential rate, and nobody is sure why. It's been more than a year of record-high global sea temperatures, including being close to the collapse of the AMOC. Despite those troubles, though, the Atlantic is now experiencing something quite baffling-temperatures are cooling, and scientists are scrambling to figure out what's going on.”

 Where is the evidence that the Atlantic is cooling at an exponential rate? Again, not directed at you, roardog.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. JB putting a lot of weight on this article isn’t surprising because it fits his narrative of cooling oceans after a drop in underwater seismic levels.

1. But and this isn’t directed at you: who’s Joshua Hawkins? Not a met/climatologist:

“Josh Hawkins has been writing for over a decade, covering science, gaming, and tech culture. He also is a top-rated product reviewer with experience in extensively researched product comparisons, headphones, and gaming devices.

Whenever he isn’t busy writing about tech or gadgets, he can usually be found enjoying a new world in a video game, or tinkering with something on his computer.”

https://bgr.com/author/joshua-hawkins/

2. Hawkins says this:

“The Atlantic Ocean is cooling at an exponential rate, and nobody is sure why. It's been more than a year of record-high global sea temperatures, including being close to the collapse of the AMOC. Despite those troubles, though, the Atlantic is now experiencing something quite baffling-temperatures are cooling, and scientists are scrambling to figure out what's going on.”

 Where is the evidence that the Atlantic is cooling at an exponential rate? Again, not directed at you, roardog.

I agree with you but I guess to be fair to Joshua Hawkins, how often are climate related articles written by someone that has any background on the subject? On the other hand, those articles usually at least have quotes or reference research done by someone in climate science. This article seems to have none of that. 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, roardog said:

I agree with you but I guess to be fair to Joshua Hawkins, how often are climate related articles written by someone that has any background on the subject? On the other hand, those articles usually at least have quotes or reference research done by someone in climate science. This article seems to have none of that. 

Today on his free Saturday Summary, JB reiterated that not only is the Atlantic cooling, the entire globe is cooling due to a lagged response to reduced underwater seismic activity.
 Does anyone have any reliable data source that actually shows this “record” speed of cooling?

[chubbs]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today on his free Saturday Summary, JB reiterated that not only is the Atlantic cooling, the entire globe is cooling due to a lagged response to reduced underwater seismic activity.
 Does anyone have any reliable data source that actually shows this “record” speed of cooling?

The short answer is no

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

The short answer is no

 Thanks, Charlie. I just figured out the reason for the misleading info. I just found a link in Hawkins’ article to this article written by James Dinneen, a science and environmental reporter:

https://www.new-scientist.com/article/2444394-part-of-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/

 From this: 

“Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why” is the headline

 “After over a year of record-high global sea temperatures, the equatorial Atlantic is cooling off more quickly than ever recorded, which could impact weather around the world. Over the past three months, the shift from hot to cool temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean has happened at record speed. This emerging ‘Atlantic Niña’ pattern comes just ahead of an expected transition to a cooler La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and these back-to-back events could have ripple effects on weather worldwide.”

 Then within the article I saw this very important note:

“Article amended on 22 August 2024. We clarified that warming is happening in part of the Atlantic and that long-term warming signals are not covered in the graph”

 The rest of the article there is paywalled.

 But then I found another link to the original article that isn’t paywalled:

https://archive.ph/2024.08.20-103704/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444394-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/

 From this: “We are starting to see that the global mean ocean temperatures are going down a bit,” says Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global sea surface temperatures this past July were slightly cooler than in July 2023 – ending a 15-month streak of record-high average ocean temperatures.”

 Then further down is this graph, which seems to be the key to the miscommunication and thus lead to the amendment note in the paywalled link that I bolded above. Focus on the far right, where 2024 is shown with a rapid cooling of anomalies from ~+1.15C in Mar to ~-0.5C in July or an anom. cooling of ~1.65C in just 4 months.

 So, evidently JB, himself, or someone else JB read misinterpreted that the entire or at least a large portion of the Atlantic cooled by 1.65C in just 4 months when in reality that was the case for just the (Nino portion of the?) eq. Atlantic. Then that lead to the need to amend the Dinneen article. 

 But unfortunately there remains a huge problem. I’m not expecting JB to clarify because the misinterpretation of “record cooling of the Atlantic” fits his narrative of the recent underwater seismic activity drop leading to significant ocean/global cooling.

@roardog@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Charlie. I just figured out the reason for the misleading info. I just found a link in Hawkins’ article to this article written by James Dinneen, a science and environmental reporter:

https://www.new-scientist.com/article/2444394-part-of-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/

 From this: 

“Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why” is the headline

 “After over a year of record-high global sea temperatures, the equatorial Atlantic is cooling off more quickly than ever recorded, which could impact weather around the world. Over the past three months, the shift from hot to cool temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean has happened at record speed. This emerging ‘Atlantic Niña’ pattern comes just ahead of an expected transition to a cooler La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and these back-to-back events could have ripple effects on weather worldwide.”

 Then within the article I saw this very important note:

“Article amended on 22 August 2024. We clarified that warming is happening in part of the Atlantic and that long-term warming signals are not covered in the graph”

 The rest of the article there is paywalled.

 But then I found another link to the original article that isn’t paywalled:

https://archive.ph/2024.08.20-103704/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444394-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/

 From this: “We are starting to see that the global mean ocean temperatures are going down a bit,” says Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global sea surface temperatures this past July were slightly cooler than in July 2023 – ending a 15-month streak of record-high average ocean temperatures.”

 Then further down is this graph, which seems to be the key to the miscommunication and thus lead to the amendment note in the paywalled link that I bolded above. Focus on the far right, where 2024 is shown with a rapid cooling of anomalies from ~+1.15C in Mar to ~-0.5C in July or an anom. cooling of ~1.65C in just 4 months.

 So, evidently JB, himself, or someone else JB read misinterpreted that the entire or at least a large portion of the Atlantic cooled by 1.65C in just 4 months when in reality that was the case for just the (Nino portion of the?) eq. Atlantic. Then that lead to the need to amend the Dinneen article. 

 But unfortunately there remains a huge problem. I’m not expecting JB to clarify because the misinterpretation of “record cooling of the Atlantic” fits his narrative of the recent underwater seismic activity drop leading to significant ocean/global cooling.

@roardog@donsutherland1

I don't believe he cares. He seems to increasingly push data whether accurate or not to support his narrative, which is usually incorrect. Indeed, he's downplaying what has likely been a top 10 or perhaps even top 5 hottest summer for the U.S. as being "no big deal." On the sea surface temperatures issue, he has been corrected multiple times. If his geothermal idea had any merit--and it doesn't--the warming would be occurring from the bottom up, not top down.