Report: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

[rclab]

13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I would love to live in your reality.

 

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Thank God I don’t live in yours where “we must trust the science” from the same folks who say men can be women and the “science is settled”. There are tens of thousands of scientists who don’t believe in “climate change” but are silenced because they don’t support the narrative- that’s a big red flag for me.

My concern is that in the name of the new religion our freedoms are being taken away. That’s what keeps me up at night not “climate change”.


.

Good morning SS14/w_h. The goal is to have a non contentious discussion regardless of position/belief. Whether one backs the imminence of snow ball earth or the advent of the next Permian extinction event …. should not really affect the ability to discuss civilly. When and if that ability, to discourse, is silenced, it will be a time for mourning. Stay well, as always

[A-L-E-K]

makes u think

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning SS14/w_h. The goal is to have a non contentious discussion regardless of position/belief. Whether one backs the imminence of snow ball earth or the advent of the next Permian extinction event …. should not really affect the ability to discuss civilly. When and if that ability, to discourse, is silenced, it will be a time for mourning. Stay well, as always

I agree. The problem with climate change is that the scientific component gets discarded by many since they disagree with the policy remedies being presented. It’s fine to have a civil disagreement about policy since that is what Democratic societies are built on.

We have known for ages that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will warm the planet. So this is nothing new. I think the debate in the scientific community isn’t whether it’s happening, but how well we can adapt to the changes in the future. There are optimists that think we can technologically mitigate some of the most extreme climate change scenarios in the future. Others don’t think it will be that easy.

Policy presents whole new set of challenges. Much of the expansion of carbon emissions and coal burning is now occurring in Asia. The U.S. has actually seen a small decline in emissions shifting to cleaner natural gas. While places like China are driving the global increase in emissions and opening new coal plants all the time. 

Then the next debate is renewables vs nuclear. Renewables like wind and solar are very land intensive. So even many people who are conservation minded and care about climate change are fighting large wind and solar installations near their backyards. Plus these  energy sources are intermittent and the battery technology for large storage still isn’t there. The power distribution system needs to be upgraded at a great cost to consumers for more Renewables to come on line. Consumers are already stretched and should not have to pay more for their electric. We are seeing increasing debates in places like Germany with soaring electric rates. They are many that advocate for newer nuclear designs but no utilities want to build anymore due to how high the coast of building a new nuclear plant has become. 

So the global default may be to continue with business as usual increases in emissions while tying to innovate our way out of the damage that it’s causing the planet. What may happen is that wealthier countries will find ways to cope. But large stretches of the planet especially closer to the equator will really suffer. Not to mention the impact on wildlife which can only adapt or migrate so fast.

[wishcast_hater]

.

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

.

Don't fall for this:

"Plymouth Rock has not remained in its original location over the centuries, and sea level rise has been well-documented in the surrounding region, experts say. In addition, the photo also does not take account of regular tidal fluctuations."

 Tidal fluctuations are near 10 feet! That pic from whenever it was taken could be at a low tide.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-plymouth-rock-sea-level-924629756946

[Typhoon Tip]

On 7/28/2023 at 8:11 AM, wishcast_hater said:

Thank God I don’t live in yours where “we must trust the science” from the same folks who say men can be women and the “science is settled”. There are tens of thousands of scientists who don’t believe in “climate change” but are silenced because they don’t support the narrative- that’s a big red flag for me.

My concern is that in the name of the new religion our freedoms are being taken away. That’s what keeps me up at night not “climate change”.


.

It should be an even bigger red flag to any and everyone that the climate is warmer in 2023 than it has been since humanity invented thermometry 

 

[wishcast_hater]

It should be an even bigger red flag to any and everyone that the climate is warmer in 2023 than it has been since humanity invented thermometry 
 

But this time it’s real right?


.

[bdgwx]

Normally heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere during an El Nino so typically we would expect a drop in OHC this year and/or next. However, with the EEI being so high right now I would not eliminate the possibility that both 2023 and 2024 will be record years as well.

The May 2023 EEI via CERES came in at +1.97 W/m2 for the 12m running average and +1.44 W/m2 for the 36m running average. This is quite remarkable. Assuming this isn't just a transient spike (which is possible) we could have a significant amount of warming queued up. 

[bdgwx]

@wishcast_hater The 1970's was actually the period in which the consilience of evidence suggested that the GHG effect would dominate over the aerosol effect and that the planet would warm despite the ever increasing pollution. See Peterson et al. 2008 for details. In regards to the ice caps being gone I've never seen anything even remotely close to 10 years so that one is new to me. The ice cap melt out predictions have actually been getting more aggressive in recent years. But we're still looking at least a couple thousand years in the future. It's not even clear that 420 ppm of CO2 is enough to cause a complete melt out though it cannot be eliminated. Even the most wildly fantastic predictions supported by robust evidence that I have seen are > 1000 years. There is a massive amount of ice in the polar regions so its going to take awhile regardless. Even the Arctic sea ice isn't expect to go "practically ice-free" (< 1e6 km2) for a short period during the summer until around 2050. And that is with the newest and most aggressive prediction from the IPCC to date. See IPCC AR6 WGI SPM pg. 16 for details.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/28/2023 at 9:54 AM, A-L-E-K said:

makes u think

Our political leaders are clueless and need to be replaced with scientists, people who actually know science.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/31/rishi-sunak-approval-100-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-fossil-fuel-climate-crisis

 

New North Sea oil and gas licences will send ‘wrecking ball’ through climate commitments
Tory MP and environmental groups criticise Rishi Sunak’s announcement of 100 new licences

Rishi Sunak hopes to extract as much oil and gas from the North Sea as possible, No 10 has said, as it announced 100-plus new drilling licences in a “maxing out” policy that environmental groups said would obliterate the UK’s climate commitments.

The plan was also criticised by Chris Skidmore, the Conservative MP who led a review into net zero, who said it was “on the wrong side of modern voters”.

 
Making a visit to Aberdeenshire on Monday, Sunakclaimed the move was “entirely consistent with our plan to get to net zero”, telling broadcasters that domestic supplies were significantly more efficient than shipping gas and oil from other countries.

Sunak’s junior energy minister, Andrew Bowie, described the proposals for the new North Sea licensing round, unveiled on Monday morning, as “maxing out our oil and gas reserves”, a notion backed by Downing Street.

 
Asked whether a plan to allow new licencees to drill for reserves closer to current projects than previously allowed was an attempt to maximise the amount of oil and gas extracted, Sunak’s press secretary said this was “the definition of the new licensing round”.

She said: “The prime minister is firmly of the belief that we should use the resources that we have here at home, first and foremost.

 

It's good that Sunak is getting a lot of pushback from Labour and becoming grumpy.  The guy needs to be removed.

 

Asked in a morning interview with BBC Radio Scotland how he was travelling to Aberdeenshire, a rather grumpy Sunak, who ended the interview when it reached the five-minute limit imposed by No 10, replied: “I’ll be flying as I normally would.”

He then told the Good Morning Scotland presenter Martin Geissler: “If you or others think that the answer to climate change is getting people to ban everything that they’re doing, just to stop people going on holiday, I think that’s absolutely the wrong approach.”

The new licence process, overseen by the North Sea Transition Authority, will involve a climate compatibility test, but will have more flexibility than before to drill for reserves close to currently licensed areas.

Sunak and his ministers have accused Labour of making the UK more reliant on overseas resources if it goes ahead with a ban on new North Sea projects. Labour says it would invest heavily in renewable sources such as wind, and also in nuclear power, which would reduce bills and make supplies more secure and sustainable.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/06/lord-deben-backs-labours-plan-to-halt-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-drilling

 

Lord Deben backs Labour’s plan to halt new North Sea oil and gas drilling
 
UK’s most senior climate adviser says policy is ‘right thing to do’ and criticises government’s stance

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/09/missed-net-zero-targets-uk-rishi-sunak-cunning-plan

 

Missed all our net zero targets? No sweat. Rishi Sunak is 100% on it
 
The PM acts as if he has some cunning plan, but even his own global heating advisers can’t see how
 
Sunak is focused on the big stuff, or what he repeatedly insists are our priorities: boats, economy, boats, hospital waiting lists, boats, inflation, boats. The naysayers would uncharitably point out that he’s failing, to which I repeat the PM’s own words: “I’m totally, 100% on it and it’s going to be OK.”

In this Mr Big Stuff vein on Tuesday it was reported that Sunak and his home secretary, Suella Braverman, would be meeting sports supremos and senior police in an effort to save the great British sporting summer from climate activists. Later that day, three sexagenarian Just Stop Oil protesters brought a couple of tennis matches to a standstill by sprinkling confetti and jigsaw pieces on court. One sporting supremo, at least, was philosophical: ‘‘You don’t want things to be disrupted but at the same time they will really be disrupted with climate change,” said Gary Lineker. Advantage activists.

 
Arresting “groups with unreasonable demands” seems to be the extent of Sunak’s interest in global warming – let alone other environmental issues that the electorate bores on about. Climate consistently ranks in the top issues of concern among voters, but presumably Sunak knows better what’s best for us and has a plan. And better than the UN secretary general, António Guterres, who last week declared that “climate change is out of control”.
 

[csnavywx]

On 7/31/2023 at 10:17 AM, bdgwx said:

@wishcast_hater The 1970's was actually the period in which the consilience of evidence suggested that the GHG effect would dominate over the aerosol effect and that the planet would warm despite the ever increasing pollution. See Peterson et al. 2008 for details. In regards to the ice caps being gone I've never seen anything even remotely close to 10 years so that one is new to me. The ice cap melt out predictions have actually been getting more aggressive in recent years. But we're still looking at least a couple thousand years in the future. It's not even clear that 420 ppm of CO2 is enough to cause a complete melt out though it cannot be eliminated. Even the most wildly fantastic predictions supported by robust evidence that I have seen are > 1000 years. There is a massive amount of ice in the polar regions so its going to take awhile regardless. Even the Arctic sea ice isn't expect to go "practically ice-free" (< 1e6 km2) for a short period during the summer until around 2050. And that is with the newest and most aggressive prediction from the IPCC to date. See IPCC AR6 WGI SPM pg. 16 for details.

I wish you the best, but he isn't here to actually learn squat. He's here to post bullshit social media memes like they're science fact. The literal inverse of his username.

[GaWx]

On 7/26/2023 at 6:54 PM, GaWx said:

 The buoys in shallow water near S FL that had been having daily highest SSTs in the amazing upper 90s to 101.1F and making media headlines recently have all plunged within just two days time. They're only in the 84-88F range as of 4PM today thanks to more rainfall and less sunshine. That's all it took after going several weeks with little rain and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. This illustrates well why these shallow water buoy SSTs are invalid for world record keeping purposes against, for example, the 99.7 recorded in much deeper waters in the middle of the Kuwait Bay. When you have Dr. Masters agreeing, you can probably take it to the bank that they're invalid. Their variations of ~14-15F occurring just within the last 48 hours show that their SSTs are acting more like coastal land station air temperatures than SSTs:

Manatee Bay (range 86-101F):

 

 In stark contrast, the deeper water at the Key West buoy has cooled due to the same rainfall/less sunshine only ~1.5F. That along with daily ranges that have typically been no more than ~2F tells me that the Key West buoy, unlike the other three, likely has valid SSTs for world recordkeeping purposes. The hottest there so far this month has been 92.7F. Although not nearly as hot as those three shallow buoys, it is still quite hot for Key West and indicative of the marine heatwave in the area. The lowest there so far this month has been 88.7. So, the range so far this month at Key West has been only 4.0F. Compare that to the range of ~14-15F just for the last two days at those shallow buoys!

Key West (range 90.5-92.3):

 

 Although the shallow Manatee Bay's buoy this week hasn't come close to the 101.1F SST high of last week with 94.5 the warmest, the Key West buoy (over deeper water and thus a much more legitimate station) today actually hit a new hottest of the year with a quick spike up to 92.8:

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-world-oceans-surface-temperature-eu.html

... you guys can go ahead and squabble about the validity of the above content from which ever perspective and/or narrative that is either conveniently(inconveniently) affected by what it is saying ...   ( LOL )...  I don't care, 

but when I read this statement, which I've read/heard countless times from other sources ...

"Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists."

I hear this snarky internal voice ask, ' when is the ocean going to give it back'   umm

 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-world-oceans-surface-temperature-eu.html

... you guys can go ahead and squabble about the validity of the above content from which ever perspective and/or narrative that is either conveniently(inconveniently) affected by what it is saying ...   ( LOL )...  I don't care, 

but when I read this statement, which I've read/heard countless times from other sources ...

"Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists."

I hear this snarky internal voice ask, ' when is the ocean going to give it back'   umm

 

This article includes the following:

"Last month, temperatures of 38.3 C—as hot as a jacuzzi—were recorded off the Florida coast, which could be a world-record high for a point measurement if the figure is confirmed."

 The article has a number of valid points/stats illustrating the amazing record warmth of the oceans. But it could have been better if the writers had done their homework regarding what I quoted. They imo should have either left the quoted portion out or stated the reasons that the 38.3C at Manatee Bay buoy isn't a valid ocean temperature as regards world records as Dr. Masters said (so shallow you can see sunlight absorbing dark bottom (see below), 10F range that day/up to 3.5F hourly ranges, affected by tides, near shoreline/sheltered, water cooled to 84F 60 hours later (see below)). Furthermore, the 38.3C/101.1F isn't even a record for that location as it hit 102F on 8/15/2017. So, there was no way the 101.1F could be a world record of any kind:

 

 If they had reported on that same day's 92.3F at the Key West buoy, which is itself ridiculously hot and probably near records for it, that would have been legitimate. But due to sloppy journalism, they invite AGW skeptics to point out the Manatee Bay buoy's 101.1F as deceptive, which it is, and thus result in them discrediting the entire article even though the rest of the article looks good to me.

Manatee Bay buoy: Sheltered near shore shallow with dark bottom:

 

Fell from 101.1F 6PM 7/24/23 to 83.9F 5AM 7/27/23:

[bluewave]

Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.
 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.
 

This is a much better way to state the heat of the water in/near the Keys. 

[GaWx]

On 8/5/2023 at 5:32 PM, bluewave said:

Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.
 

 

[bluewave]

 

[wxmx]

Source

[wxmx]

El Niño & +AMO ... but the lack of significant below normal areas is quite something.

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, wxmx said:

Source

2023 vs 2015, 2023 is steadily pulling away. A couple of causes come to mind: 1) the earth's energy imbalance is roughly twice as large this year almost 2 W/m2 vs roughly 1 W/m2 in 2015, 2) 2023 started from a nina state while 2015 was already a weak nino. The recent triple nina obscured much of the recent increase in forcing/energy imbalance.

[bluewave]

 

[GaWx]

On 8/2/2023 at 6:42 PM, GaWx said:

 Although the shallow Manatee Bay's buoy this week hasn't come close to the 101.1F SST high of last week with 94.5 the warmest, the Key West buoy (over deeper water and thus a much more legitimate station) today actually hit a new hottest of the year with a quick spike up to 92.8:

 I just checked the Key West Buoy's SST and it is all of the way down to 87F, down 5F from just over two weeks ago! After being warmer than the coral bleaching SST of ~87.3F since mid June at Key West and peaking in the high 92s on the hottest days, it has finally cooled to just below that crucial temperature and is now just under 87F! Some good news that probably won't be reported by many news outlets. Let's see how long it will stay down in that vicinity.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1

[bluewave]

 

[chubbs]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:52 AM, bluewave said:

 

A particularly large rise in OHC in 2022 per small chart in upper left. The global temp records we are seeing this year aren't surprising, given the nina-related warmth stored in the ocean the past couple of years.

[csnavywx]

8 hours ago, chubbs said:

A particularly large rise in OHC in 2022 per small chart in upper left. The global temp records we are seeing this year aren't surprising, given the nina-related warmth stored in the ocean the past couple of years.

The jump since '20 has been surprisingly strong. 60-65ZJ just since then.

[bluewave]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

If you think that this CC thing is but a slow moving apocalypse … there are events in nature that may beacon a warning 

CNN — 

Billions of snow crabs have disappeared from the ocean around Alaska in recent years, and scientists now say they know why: Warmer ocean temperatures likely caused them to starve to death.

… first example of CC-attributed flash extinction in our time - even if not the entire species … “billions” in short years certainly makes the point - can happen  

[bluewave]

 

[bdgwx]

And as of this morning it is official. Hansen et al. 2023 was formally accepted for publication.

Why is this a big deal?

1) It is a sobering prediction of what may happen.

2) The authors (and there are big names in this list) take an adversarial tone toward the IPCC by indicting them of reticence and gradualism.

Official: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=false

News: https://www.eenews.net/articles/james-hansen-is-back-with-another-dire-climate-warning/