Report: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

[Bhs1975]

 Regarding the SST the Johnson Key buoy's low this morning was 1.1 warmer than yesterday meaning 90.0 (8AM). Today's 3PM SST of 96.1 is 1.3 warmer than the 94.8 of 24 hours ago. There's potentially still another 3 hours of SST warming with full sunshine and no showers anywhere nearby. Thus, there's a good chance that yesterday's 97.2 SST high will be exceeded today.
Edit: An hour later (4PM) the SST rose from 96.1 to 97.5 with potentially another two hours of warming.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

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[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Bhs1975 said:

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 The Johnson Key buoy SST rose from 98.2 at 5PM to 98.4 at 6PM. This is the hottest I've seen it since I started following it earlier this month. Based on other sunny days, 6PM is typically the hottest hourly of this very shallow (5 ft) water.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Johnson Key buoy SST rose from 98.2 at 5PM to 98.4 at 6PM. This is the hottest I've seen it since I started following it earlier this month. Based on other sunny days, 6PM is typically the hottest hourly of this very shallow (5 ft) water.

Very high even for such shallow waters. Unfortunately a coral bleaching event is now underway.

 

 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive even for such shallow waters. Looks like a coral bleaching event is now underway.

 

 

 Yeah, upper 90s SSTs are amazingly impressive even for very shallow at the SST high of the day! I do wish I had followed Johnson buoy in past years so I'd have a better perspective on this month's SSTs vs past summers. I wonder if there are any easily obtainable records of hourly SSTs from other years.
 
 Apparently Murray Key and Johnson Key are only 4 miles apart. Based on that along with Johnson hitting 98.4, I feel that the 99.3 at Murray Key is believable since it is within a degree.

[Bhs1975]

 The Johnson Key buoy SST rose from 98.2 at 5PM to 98.4 at 6PM. This is the hottest I've seen it since I started following it earlier this month. Based on other sunny days, 6PM is typically the hottest hourly of this very shallow (5 ft) water.

That's like one of those therapeutic pools.


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[Bhs1975]

That's like one of those therapeutic pools.


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SSTs where over 100F in the tropics during the PETM.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

 My concern is about the depth required to be considered for the world record. The prior record was 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/
 
 So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by a range of 10.1F from a 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. 

[GaWx]

 The following graphic showing the very wide daily SST range (due to shallowness) illustrates well my concern about whether or not the 101.1F recorded yesterday at Manatee Bay buoy should count as the new world hot SST record vs the existing 99.7F record set in the deeper middle of Kuwait Bay as per the link in the post above this. Note the last two days having a 10+ SST range. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday. Any opinions?

[bluewave]

Numerous records set from Maine into Maritime Canada with the current extreme marine heatwave in that area.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.7	7
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really interesting timing with Atlantic hurricane season. I wouldn't be surprised to see anti-correlations take place here in the Atlantic wrt hurricane season. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Numerous records set from Maine into Maritime Canada with the current extreme marine heatwave in that area.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.7	7
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

 

 

 

Clearly, the Caribou lows are being elevated by the runaway urban heat island effect and non-existent jet traffic there. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Clearly, the Caribou lows are being elevated by the runaway urban heat island effect and non-existent jet traffic there. 

Even mature UHI locations like LGA haven’t seen that great a jump in warm season average low temperatures above the 2nd place month. The difference at LGA between 1st and 2nd place is only a few tenths of a degree. Caribou so far is +3.8° above the next closest year. Both stations have had exactly 4 out of the top 5 warmest July minimums since 2010. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75.2	0
2	2010	74.9	0
3	2013	74.5	0
4	1999	74.1	0
5	2023	73.8	7
6	2019	73.6	0
-	2016	73.6	0
7	2022	73.3	0
-	2006	73.3	0
8	1994	72.7	0
9	2018	72.6	0
-	2012	72.6	0
10	2015	72.5	0
-	2008	72.5	0
-	1995	72.5	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.7	7
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0
6	1970	58.8	0
7	1994	58.5	0
-	1967	58.5	0
8	1975	58.4	0
9	2006	58.2	0
10	1973	58.1	0

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The following graphic showing the very wide daily SST range (due to shallowness) illustrates well my concern about whether or not the 101.1F recorded yesterday at Manatee Bay buoy should count as the new world hot SST record vs the existing 99.7F record set in the deeper middle of Kuwait Bay as per the link in the post above this. Note the last two days having a 10+ SST range. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday. Any opinions?

 After yesterday's Manatee Bay buoy SST high of an amazing 101.1 at 6PM, today thanks to showers at times and shallow water was 7.1 cooler at 93.0 exactly 24 hours later. This illustrates my concern about whether yesterday's 101.1 SST should be made the new official world's highest SST:

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even mature UHI locations like LGA haven’t seen that great a jump in warm season average low temperatures above the 2nd place month. The difference at LGA between 1st and 2nd place is only a few tenths of a degree. Caribou so far is +3.8° above the next closest year. Both stations have had exactly 4 out of the top 5 warmest July minimums since 2010. 
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75.2	0
2	2010	74.9	0
3	2013	74.5	0
4	1999	74.1	0
5	2023	73.8	7
6	2019	73.6	0
-	2016	73.6	0
7	2022	73.3	0
-	2006	73.3	0
8	1994	72.7	0
9	2018	72.6	0
-	2012	72.6	0
10	2015	72.5	0
-	2008	72.5	0
-	1995	72.5	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.7	7
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0
6	1970	58.8	0
7	1994	58.5	0
-	1967	58.5	0
8	1975	58.4	0
9	2006	58.2	0
10	1973	58.1	0

17 years at Caribou (since records began in 1939) have had monthly mean temperatures less than or equal to the current monthly minimum average for 2023.

[GaWx]

On 7/24/2023 at 10:47 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

More on the validity of yesterday's amazing 101.1F on Manatee Bay:

"That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine.

 

What to know about that hot sea surface temperature

Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement?

That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said.

The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet.

 Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.'

Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared."

 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/25/water-temperatures-in-florida/70463489007/

 Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times. That's not normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM! Perhaps this was related to an incoming low tide? Low tide was at ~8:30AM.

 The rain in that area this morning is the most widespread I've noticed in several weeks and has helped to drop the 10AM SST to 86.9F vs 94.5F at 10AM yesterday:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Numerous records set from Maine into Maritime Canada with the current extreme marine heatwave in that area.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.7	7
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

 

 

 

Anecdotally I was at Jennes Beach at Rye NH this last weekend … which other than the Isle of Shoals offering no significance … is all Labradorian termination waters. 

We bounced around on boogie boards to 0 discomfort, in ocean waves breaking 72F temperatures. 

I lived in Rockport MA … back whence the dinosaurs roamed … That eastern tip of Cape Anne sticks out into those same waters like a natural anal thermometer … perpetually sampling the health of the Labrador current. I know from aching balls of those old Augusts (no less) … 72F has to be quite rare. 
 

 

[rclab]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anecdotally I was at Jennes Beach at Rye NH this last weekend … which other than the Isle of Shoals offering no significance … is all Labradorian termination waters. 

We bounced around on boogie boards to 0 discomfort, in ocean waves breaking 72F temperatures. 

I lived in Rockoort MA … back whence the dinosaurs roamed … That eastern tip of Cape Anne sticks out into those same waters like a natural anal thermometer … perpetually sampling the health of the Labrador current. I know from aching balls of those old Augusts (no less) … 72F has to be quite rare. 
 

 

Tip your a word artist. The visuals give significant depth to the understanding. Stay well and I hope the pain has eased. As always ….

[Typhoon Tip]

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean ( ^ )  ...  a marine heat wave IN one of one of the coldest mid latitude oceanic conveyors of cold water on the entire planet? That is nothing shy of shocking.  

Yet, silent to all but the salient in such matters.   That is what is going to machine our demise as a species ( ... and we'll take down countless others along with us...)

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Evolution's 2nd greatest blunder after the dinosaurs: the brain

[GaWx]

 The buoys in shallow water near S FL that had been having daily highest SSTs in the amazing upper 90s to 101.1F and making media headlines recently have all plunged within just two days time. They're only in the 84-88F range as of 4PM today thanks to more rainfall and less sunshine. That's all it took after going several weeks with little rain and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. This illustrates well why these shallow water buoy SSTs are invalid for world record keeping purposes against, for example, the 99.7 recorded in much deeper waters in the middle of the Kuwait Bay. When you have Dr. Masters agreeing, you can probably take it to the bank that they're invalid. Their variations of ~14-15F occurring just within the last 48 hours show that their SSTs are acting more like coastal land station air temperatures than SSTs:

Manatee Bay (range 86-101F):

 

Johnson Key (range 84-98):

 

Murray Key (range 84-99):

 

 In stark contrast, the deeper water at the Key West buoy has cooled due to the same rainfall/less sunshine only ~1.5F. That along with daily ranges that have typically been no more than ~2F tells me that the Key West buoy, unlike the other three, likely has valid SSTs for world recordkeeping purposes. The hottest there so far this month has been 92.7F. Although not nearly as hot as those three shallow buoys, it is still quite hot for Key West and indicative of the marine heatwave in the area. The lowest there so far this month has been 88.7. So, the range so far this month at Key West has been only 4.0F. Compare that to the range of ~14-15F just for the last two days at those shallow buoys!

Key West (range 90.5-92.3):

 

[bluewave]

Another extreme marine heatwave for the planet under a near record 500 mb blocking pattern for July in that part of the world. We had another near record 500 mb anomaly last December just north of that location. 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really interesting timing with Atlantic hurricane season. I wouldn't be surprised to see anti-correlations take place here in the Atlantic wrt hurricane season. 

Yeah, the MJO guys published thoughts like that recently… Saying that, even though the deep layer is kind of sketchy the MDR may become active -  implicitly extraordinary thermal Stowes in the oceanic basin, may overwhelm. I mean… It’s kind of a hot dog thing to say, but eventually something’s gotta give there  - right ?

I don’t know… It sounds exciting to think that way, but you still need the mechanics. Otherwise the heat will just gain and gather.

I think the Labrador current story is actually the greater one anyway. I mean those shallow Floridian tuck waters in and near the bite between the keys and the bottom of the peninsula always go Red Sea at this time of year… Actually more like August sure. And don’t get me wrong. They’re above normal and it’s impressive.

But in terms of climatology … relative to? Extending anomalies 12° above normal over area the size of Texas blows that Florida stuff away.  
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the MJO guys published thoughts like that recently… Saying that, even though the deep layer is kind of sketchy the MDR may become active -  implicitly extraordinary thermal Stowes in the oceanic basin, may overwhelm. I mean… It’s kind of a hot dog thing to say, but eventually something’s gotta give there  - right ?
 

Right, I've been thinking that since 2012 wrt Arctic ice melt. It might really accelerate in the coming years. They've been saying the Gulf Stream would slow down for a while, and it's nice to see that buckle without really much 500mb help. I mean there was a weak -NAO, but overnight lows 4 degrees above average says that something greater is going on.. I wonder if that cold push on July 31 over Caribou has some extra-meaning.. probably not but it's interesting. 

Antarctica ice regression is now-time I think as we had a big global warming push Jan-Mar, and it's timely being now realized. Nice to see the Earth be on par. 

[wishcast_hater]

Climate change - the new “COVID’






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[GaWx]

 Check out how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's extreme highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures):

Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84

Johnson Key: from 98 to 79

 

Murray Key: from 99 to 81

 

 In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:

[bluewave]

On 7/24/2023 at 7:20 PM, GaWx said:

 Yeah, upper 90s SSTs are amazingly impressive even for very shallow at the SST high of the day! I do wish I had followed Johnson buoy in past years so I'd have a better perspective on this month's SSTs vs past summers. I wonder if there are any easily obtainable records of hourly SSTs from other years.
 
 Apparently Murray Key and Johnson Key are only 4 miles apart. Based on that along with Johnson hitting 98.4, I feel that the 99.3 at Murray Key is believable since it is within a degree.

I was able to find a few longer term observations from the shallower Florida Bay on twitter.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change - the new “COVID’






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I would love to live in your reality.

[wishcast_hater]

I would love to live in your reality.

Thank God I don’t live in yours where “we must trust the science” from the same folks who say men can be women and the “science is settled”. There are tens of thousands of scientists who don’t believe in “climate change” but are silenced because they don’t support the narrative- that’s a big red flag for me.

My concern is that in the name of the new religion our freedoms are being taken away. That’s what keeps me up at night not “climate change”.


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