Report: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

[donsutherland1]

2022 surpassed the ocean set record that was set just last year. Most recently, such heat records were also set in 2019 and 2020. Excerpts from a newly-published report:

Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, there is an energy imbalance in the Earth’s climate system. More than 90% of the excess heat accumulated in the climate system is deposited in the world’s oceans. The ocean heat content (OHC) influences ocean–atmosphere interactions by providing thermal inertia to sea surface temperatures and thus exerts considerable control over the world’s weather. Rising ocean temperatures bolster the energy exchanges from ocean to atmosphere, increase the quantity of atmospheric moisture, and change the patterns of precipitation and temperature globally...

[G]lobal OHC has increased steadily, regardless of the status of ENSO, owing to anthropogenic influences. When considered on an annual basis, 2022 is the hottest year ever recorded in the world’s oceans. Its OHC exceeds that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ according to IAP/CAS data, and by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ according to NCEI/NOAA data (for the 0–2000 m water depth)...

The complete paper can be found here.

[bdgwx]

I took their data and created a model to predict ERA values. The model is predicting that if a hypothetical 2016 magnitude El Nino were to occur in 2023 it would cause off-the-chart warming...literally.

We are locked-and-loaded. The next El Nino will likely bring record setting global temperatures.

BTW...notice that ERA observations were slightly below the model in the runup to the 2016 El Nino where as now they are running significantly higher than the model. Is the warming accelerating and the model not picking up on it yet?

[donsutherland1]

I believe we will get a good example of where things stand this year and next year as the La Niña ends. I suspect that the outcome will validate some acceleration in the rate of warming with this year winding up among the 3 warmest years and next year probably setting a record. The warmth after 3 years of La Niña is stunning. Even a weak El Niño could produce record warmth as anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to grow.

[chubbs]

The 1970-2015 temperature detrending in this Hanson chart isn't strong enough for 2015+. Another sign temps could should pop to a record when the nina reverses.

[chubbs]

A figure from a recent Hanson paper (pre-publication undergoing peer review). Shouldn't take long to see if he is right.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2012 analog has been hitting many points in the late Winter/Spring.. I'm curious to see how hot the Summer gets.

[chubbs]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Reduction in shipping aerosols may have contributed to the record global SSTs we are currently experiencing.

 

 

This is not a technically sound analysis. SO2 has a few days to two week lifetime, so the impact of the marine sulfur regulation would have been felt quickly in January 2000. The timing is off for the recent spike in SST to be closely associated with ship SOx emissions.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 1/11/2023 at 9:05 AM, donsutherland1 said:

2022 surpassed the ocean set record that was set just last year. Most recently, such heat records were also set in 2019 and 2020. Excerpts from a newly-published report:

Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, there is an energy imbalance in the Earth’s climate system. More than 90% of the excess heat accumulated in the climate system is deposited in the world’s oceans. The ocean heat content (OHC) influences ocean–atmosphere interactions by providing thermal inertia to sea surface temperatures and thus exerts considerable control over the world’s weather. Rising ocean temperatures bolster the energy exchanges from ocean to atmosphere, increase the quantity of atmospheric moisture, and change the patterns of precipitation and temperature globally...

[G]lobal OHC has increased steadily, regardless of the status of ENSO, owing to anthropogenic influences. When considered on an annual basis, 2022 is the hottest year ever recorded in the world’s oceans. Its OHC exceeds that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ according to IAP/CAS data, and by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ according to NCEI/NOAA data (for the 0–2000 m water depth)...

The complete paper can be found here.

Don ...did you see the recent papers citing direct evidence of the salinity imbalance around Antarctica ?

The findings suggest the slowing of the conveyors is not just a N. Atlantic problem. 

https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html

The implications range in a broad spectrum of consequence ... from destabilizing climate in an already destabilized climate (heh), to adding to species migration and/or loss.

[Typhoon Tip]

The notion of "termination shock" is very interesting.   

I believe it was Libertybell. He and I were musing months ... if not a couple years at this point, a science fiction novel whose theme would be rooted in that plausibility ... Termination bounce-back phenomenon. 

Shutting things down too quickly ...  you know, alcoholics can die if they attempt to detox too fast - that is an example of termination shock in a single organism. Perhaps as a microcosm it supplies a metaphor for "Gaia".  

If there compensating forces in play that were happening within the din, and we remove the din, the compensating forces may rise to a state of proxy. And the system may rebound out of control - the pendulum swings the other way. 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don ...did you see the recent papers citing direct evidence of the salinity imbalance around Antarctica ?

The findings suggest the slowing of the conveyors is not just a N. Atlantic problem. 

https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html

The implications range in a broad spectrum of consequence ... from destabilizing climate in an already destabilized climate (heh), to adding to species migration and/or loss.

I did. This is troubling, as it’s a vital large-scale current. The paper was published in Nature.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05762-w

[csnavywx]

10 hours ago, chubbs said:

This is not a technically sound analysis. SO2 has a few days to two week lifetime, so the impact of the marine sulfur regulation would have been felt quickly in January 2000. The timing is off for the recent spike in SST to be closely associated with ship SOx emissions.

Eeehhhh. Don't be so quick to dismiss this, imo. There was an immediate upswing in EEI and SST in 2020 over both the NPac and NATL. The EEI signal is still very much there.

Some of this warming is probably due to Nina influence on the mid-latitudes, but once you account for that there's still a (large) residual there that I don't think can be easily accounted for. Plus, why Jan and not Sept when the impact of aerosols and time lagged (inertia induced) solar heating is maximized?

[chubbs]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Simons was one of the authors on the paper with Hansen that you posted. So you would have to ask him about his analysis. I think you mean January 2020 when the steep decline in sulfur emissions occurred. There has been a SST increase since January 2020 . But the models are all over the place on how much shipping reducing aerosols impacts the climate. There is quite a range. As for the current SST spike this month, hard to know exactly how much contribution other individual factors are having since we are near the end of the La Niña. The Tonga eruption may have also contributed.

 

11 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Eeehhhh. Don't be so quick to dismiss this, imo. There was an immediate upswing in EEI and SST in 2020 over both the NPac and NATL. The EEI signal is still very much there.

Some of this warming is probably due to Nina influence on the mid-latitudes, but once you account for that there's still a (large) residual there that I don't think can be easily accounted for. Plus, why Jan and not Sept when the impact of aerosols and time lagged (inertia induced) solar heating is maximized?

Agree that the marine sulfur rules contribute to warming, but not convinced they are currently a major factor considering all the other factors contributing to warming. Global SO2 emissions peaked around 1980, as air pollution became an increasing concern. So declining SOx has been contributing to increased forcing for a while; and, we'd have a big forcing imbalance today even if marine sulfur emissions were uncontrolled.  I'm betting on the reduction in nina-related upwelling as being the major cause of the recent SST spike. In any case we are going to have to overcome declining SOx emissions going forward. That's the Faustain bargain.

[donsutherland1]

New research has revealed that the Pacific marine heatwave known as “the Blob” was very likely the result of climate change.

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-find-what-s-been-fueling-the-murderous-ocean-heatwave-called-the-blob

[Amped]

This wasn't supposed to happen for like another 20-30 years.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 6/25/2023 at 5:47 PM, donsutherland1 said:

New research has revealed that the Pacific marine heatwave known as “the Blob” was very likely the result of climate change.

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-find-what-s-been-fueling-the-murderous-ocean-heatwave-called-the-blob

Are you aware of the marine heat burst around Florida and the adjacent southwest Atlantic basin?

I find it interesting that the onset of this thing seems to have coincided too cutely with the breakdown of the La Niña circulation manifold’s temporal seam with onset warm ENSO. 

not sure that’s a coincidence. It seems to me we’re getting some “elasticity” at planetary scales right this summer. Remarkable atmospheric ‘bounce backs’, and sea surface temperatures exploding

It’s like La Niña suppressed things but released …. now overcompensation the other direction. Supposition. Fascinating 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are you aware of the marine heat burst around Florida and the adjacent southwest Atlantic basin?

I find it interesting that the onset of this thing seems to have coincided too cutely with the breakdown of the La Niña circulation manifold’s temporal seam with onset warm ENSO. 

not sure that’s a coincidence. It seems to me we’re getting some “elasticity” at planetary scales right this summer. Remarkable atmospheric ‘bounce backs’, and sea surface temperatures exploding

It’s like La Niña suppressed things but released …. now overcompensation the other direction. Supposition. Fascinating 

Yes. The extreme marine heatwave near Florida is absolutely shocking. A lot of coral and other marine life is at risk. And it’s contributing to the unrelenting heat in south Florida and the Florida Keys.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. The extreme marine heatwave near Florida is absolutely shocking. A lot of coral and other marine life is at risk. And it’s contributing to the unrelenting heat in south Florida and the Florida Keys.

hint hint: I've been waiting for/if a WAR circulation mode to kick in... I've seen several individual model cycles attempt to do so over the last three week's worth of operational monitoring, but the continuity has been lacking.  For now, the runs are opting instead on another thermal ridge attempt into the Missouri Valley to ORD..., more coherently.  As an aside, that "might" send a heat expulsion our way in its own right, but that ridge is too far west ..which can lead to MCC traffic and other perturbations that limit the polarward realization ..D.C. and Philly look hot in the late middle range, either way.

Anyway, not intending to get into a forecast discussion ... if the WAR taps into that and we time a SW/Sonoran heat release, it's unclear (in an ominous way) what the nexus of that transport would mean for the heavier population regions here in the east.

(WAR refering to canonical West Atlantic Ridge )

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. The extreme marine heatwave near Florida is absolutely shocking. A lot of coral and other marine life is at risk. And it’s contributing to the unrelenting heat in south Florida and the Florida Keys.

 To show how unprecedented in the records is the heat this month at Marathon in the FL Keys (records back to 1950), the largest # of days with highs of 96+ for the entire YEAR before 2023 was 11 in 1987, followed by 9 in 2019 and 8 in 2022. There have been 15 straight days counting today with highs of 96+ and 16 total days this month! That's truly amazing for a location surrounded by ocean.

 Prior to this month, the warmest month on record was 88.0 set in June of 2019. July of 2023 is at 90.0 MTD! Should that hold up, a two degree margin over the prior record for a station surrounded by water would be quite notable.

 Assuming there haven't been any recent changes in or location of the sensors at Marathon Airport, July of 2023 there will be considered astounding. I'm not aware of any. The 90.0 MTD air temp there is very believable when considering SSTs in and near the Keys averaging in the low 90s MTD. If they were, say, instead in the upper 80s, I might have questioned the Marathon sensors as the average air temp is often 1-2 F cooler than the average nearby SST.

 Besides the background support from AGW, what else is causing this extreme marine heatwave? Any ideas? What is causing SST averages in the area to be stuck in the lower 90s for the entire month? Some of the very shallow waters such as at Johnson Key buoy to the north in FL Bay even had 5+ days of upper 90s SST highs last week! (That location has water that is only ~5 feet deep though. So, it routinely has daily ranges of 8+ degrees. So, even when it had SST highs of 97+, it had SST lows of upper 80s/near 90 and daily averages near 93.)

 Is the Tonga volcano that put a lot of water vapor in the air an additional factor there and worldwide?

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Is the Tonga volcano that put a lot of water vapor in the air an additional factor there and worldwide?

Probably a little bit. @chubbs tracked down the radiative forcing data for Hunga Tonga. It can be downloaded here and plots are here. Basically the stratospheric aerosols have waned enough that the net effect including H2O is now about +0.1 W/m2.

 

Also look at how significantly Hunga Tonga effected the upper atmosphere. These plots are available here (jump all the way down to the water plots at the bottom).

 

But keep in mind that a +0.1 W/m2 effect is small compared to the +1.8 W/m2 energy imbalance. Other factors including suppressed Saharan Dust and a reduction in marine sulfur emissions also contribute. But changes in the global circulation pattern caused by El Nino and increased GHGs are probably the bulk of the effect. The following graphic is made from data available here.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bdgwx said:

Probably a little bit. @chubbs tracked down the radiative forcing data for Hunga Tonga. It can be downloaded here and plots are here. Basically the stratospheric aerosols have waned enough that the net effect including H2O is now about +0.1 W/m2.

 

Also look at how significantly Hunga Tonga effected the upper atmosphere. These plots are available here (jump all the way down to the water plots at the bottom).

 

But keep in mind that a +0.1 W/m2 effect is small compared to the +1.8 W/m2 energy imbalance. Other factors including suppressed Saharan Dust and a reduction in marine sulfur emissions also contribute. But changes in the global circulation pattern caused by El Nino and increased GHGs are probably the bulk of the effect. The following graphic is made from data available here.

 Thanks. I forgot to mention that it has been VERY dry in the FL Keys and surrounding areas. That lack of rainfall/above average sunshine has played a part in the hot waters there, especially the shallow ones, as it typically does in other areas in the summer. In my daily looks at the Johnson Key buoy, I see this with SSTs cooler on the few showery days.

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. The extreme marine heatwave near Florida is absolutely shocking. A lot of coral and other marine life is at risk. And it’s contributing to the unrelenting heat in south Florida and the Florida Keys.

Yeah, off the charts.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 To show how unprecedented in the records is the heat this month at Marathon in the FL Keys (records back to 1950), the largest # of days with highs of 96+ for the entire YEAR before 2023 was 11 in 1987, followed by 9 in 2019 and 8 in 2022. There have been 15 straight days counting today with highs of 96+ and 16 total days this month! That's truly amazing for a location surrounded by ocean.

 Prior to this month, the warmest month on record was 88.0 set in June of 2019. July of 2023 is at 90.0 MTD! Should that hold up, a two degree margin over the prior record for a station surrounded by water would be quite notable.

 Assuming there haven't been any recent changes in or location of the sensors at Marathon Airport, July of 2023 there will be considered astounding. I'm not aware of any. The 90.0 MTD air temp there is very believable when considering SSTs in and near the Keys averaging in the low 90s MTD. If they were, say, instead in the upper 80s, I might have questioned the Marathon sensors as the average air temp is often 1-2 F cooler than the average nearby SST.

 Besides the background support from AGW, what else is causing this extreme marine heatwave? Any ideas? What is causing SST averages in the area to be stuck in the lower 90s for the entire month? Some of the very shallow waters such as at Johnson Key buoy to the north in FL Bay even had 5+ days of upper 90s SST highs last week! (That location has water that is only ~5 feet deep though. So, it routinely has daily ranges of 8+ degrees. So, even when it had SST highs of 97+, it had SST lows of upper 80s/near 90 and daily averages near 93.)

 Is the Tonga volcano that put a lot of water vapor in the air an additional factor there and worldwide?

What's happening at Marathon, in large part due to the extreme marine heatwave, is beyond description. So far, it's also had 8 98° or above days (the old record was 2). For its climate record prior to 2023 (begins in April 1950), there were 7 such days in total.

Aside from AGW, a lack of Saharan dust allowed for more incoming solar radiation to reach the waters. Lack of storminess has also prevented the upwelling that could have cooled them. The volcano's impact is likely fading now.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hint hint: I've been waiting for/if a WAR circulation mode to kick in... I've seen several individual model cycles attempt to do so over the last three week's worth of operational monitoring, but the continuity has been lacking.  For now, the runs are opting instead on another thermal ridge attempt into the Missouri Valley to ORD..., more coherently.  As an aside, that "might" send a heat expulsion our way in its own right, but that ridge is too far west ..which can lead to MCC traffic and other perturbations that limit the polarward realization ..D.C. and Philly look hot in the late middle range, either way.

Anyway, not intending to get into a forecast discussion ... if the WAR taps into that and we time a SW/Sonoran heat release, it's unclear (in an ominous way) what the nexus of that transport would mean for the heavier population regions here in the east.

(WAR refering to canonical West Atlantic Ridge )

So far, it's been very difficult to build and sustain a WAR. Maybe that will change, but the persistence of the current pattern and repetition of ridge formation in areas that have seen a lot of it so far, suggest that the odds of a sustained WAR may not be great in the near term. Perhaps the probability could increase beyond mid August?

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Assuming there haven't been any recent changes in or location of the sensors at Marathon Airport, July of 2023 there will be considered astounding. I'm not aware of any. The 90.0 MTD air temp there is very believable when considering SSTs in and near the Keys averaging in the low 90s MTD. If they were, say, instead in the upper 80s, I might have questioned the Marathon sensors as the average air temp is often 1-2 F cooler than the average nearby SST.

While this doesn’t diminish the marine heatwave, the marathon sensor runs warm due to its sitting near concrete.

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-city-keys-hottest-florida-weather.html

Why is Marathon always hotter?

To some observers, Marathon runs hotter than other parts of the Keys. It's not in your imagination—and there's a reason.

The hot spot has to do with the location of the National Weather Service's sensors, explains National Weather Service in Key West meteorologist Jon Rizzo.

"The temperature of the cities is actually a specific instrument that we maintain at the airport. And in the case of Marathon, the location of that is kind of sandwiched between some pavement including part of the ramp where they park the aircraft and the driveway, which is just to the south," Rizzo said. "So what happens is when the winds are light and over this stretch, in particular, the last couple of weeks, some of the hot air over the payment passes over the sensor, and so it will read higher than perhaps positioned at another part of the airfield that may be over a grassy surface."

"A lot of that has to do with the siting and that's why it's consistently on average two to three degrees warmer than, let's say, our sensor at the Key West airport."

Another factor for falling records: Marathon's period of temperature weather-keeping records is considerably shorter than that of Key West, Rizzo said.

"It's still significant that you're seeing record reports coming out of [Marathon] because even in the history of that location and the station, relatively speaking, it has been hotter this year than others. Every day we're pretty close to tying or breaking a daily high record. Marathon's period of record dates back to 1950, which is kind of medium length. In comparison to Key West, with the records dating back to 1871, it's harder to break records in Key West with its long periods of record. Whereas, Marathon you're dealing with a shorter time period."

Rizzo said the Keys weather service is working with the Federal Aviation Administration to possibly relocate the sensors at Marathon International Airport to a different part of its airfield. But any such move will take some time.

As for Thursday, Rizzo said the forecast high is either 96 or 97. The record high for July 14 in Marathon is 95, set a year ago in 2022.

Expect another record.

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While this doesn’t diminish the marine heatwave, the marathon sensor runs warm due to its sitting near concrete.

https://phys.org/news/2023-07-city-keys-hottest-florida-weather.html

Why is Marathon always hotter?

To some observers, Marathon runs hotter than other parts of the Keys. It's not in your imagination—and there's a reason.

The hot spot has to do with the location of the National Weather Service's sensors, explains National Weather Service in Key West meteorologist Jon Rizzo.

"The temperature of the cities is actually a specific instrument that we maintain at the airport. And in the case of Marathon, the location of that is kind of sandwiched between some pavement including part of the ramp where they park the aircraft and the driveway, which is just to the south," Rizzo said. "So what happens is when the winds are light and over this stretch, in particular, the last couple of weeks, some of the hot air over the payment passes over the sensor, and so it will read higher than perhaps positioned at another part of the airfield that may be over a grassy surface."

"A lot of that has to do with the siting and that's why it's consistently on average two to three degrees warmer than, let's say, our sensor at the Key West airport."

Another factor for falling records: Marathon's period of temperature weather-keeping records is considerably shorter than that of Key West, Rizzo said.

"It's still significant that you're seeing record reports coming out of [Marathon] because even in the history of that location and the station, relatively speaking, it has been hotter this year than others. Every day we're pretty close to tying or breaking a daily high record. Marathon's period of record dates back to 1950, which is kind of medium length. In comparison to Key West, with the records dating back to 1871, it's harder to break records in Key West with its long periods of record. Whereas, Marathon you're dealing with a shorter time period."

Rizzo said the Keys weather service is working with the Federal Aviation Administration to possibly relocate the sensors at Marathon International Airport to a different part of its airfield. But any such move will take some time.

As for Thursday, Rizzo said the forecast high is either 96 or 97. The record high for July 14 in Marathon is 95, set a year ago in 2022.

Expect another record.

 

 

 Thank you! Thus is great info. So, the nearby pavement is why highs are hotter than Key West. That along with SSTs in the low 90s is allowing upper 90s highs. But what I'm trying to decipher is whether or not we have an apples to apples comparison to past Marathon records. How far back has there been similar pavement closeby? I don't think the article is real clear on that.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thank you! Thus is great info. So, the nearby pavement is why highs are hotter than Key West. That along with SSTs in the low 90s is allowing upper 90s highs. But what I'm trying to decipher is whether or not we have an apples to apples comparison to past Marathon records. How far back has there been similar pavement closeby? I don't think the article is real clear on that.

Looks like an apples to apples comparison since it appears that the ASOS has been in that warm spot for quite some time. So the 17 daily record highs since July 4th is with the ASOS in the same spot that it always has been.

 

It's still significant that you're seeing record reports coming out of [Marathon] because even in the history of that location and the station, relatively speaking, it has been hotter this year than others. Every day we're pretty close to tying or breaking a daily high record. Marathon's period of record dates back to 1950, which is kind of medium length. In comparison to Key West, with the records dating back to 1871, it's harder to break records in Key West with its long periods of record. Whereas, Marathon you're dealing with a shorter time period."

 

 

7/4	95 in 2023	95 in 1998	95 in 1992
7/5	96 in 2023	95 in 2020	94 in 2019+
7/6	95 in 2023	94 in 2020	94 in 2009+
7/7	96 in 2023	95 in 2009	94 in 2020
7/8	97 in 2023	95 in 2009	93 in 2022+
7/9	96 in 2023	94 in 2009	93 in 2022+
7/10	97 in 2023	94 in 2020	94 in 1998+
7/11	98 in 2023	96 in 1991	95 in 1969
7/12	98 in 2023	95 in 2022	95 in 1969
7/13	99 in 2023	95 in 2022	95 in 1969
7/14	98 in 2023	95 in 2022	95 in 1991+
7/15	99 in 1987	97 in 2023	94 in 2009+
7/16	98 in 2023	95 in 1969	94 in 2018+
7/17	98 in 2023	96 in 1987	95 in 1969
7/18	98 in 2023	95 in 2014	95 in 1991
7/19	96 in 2023	96 in 2018	95 in 2009
7/20	98 in 2023	94 in 2018	94 in 2004
7/21	97 in 2023	96 in 2018	94 in 2022+

[GaWx]

 Miami's high today of 98 was a record high. Since records started there in 1895 only one day has been hotter, 7/21/1942's 100!

 Meanwhile, Marathon's 96+ streak continues into today for day 17! There have been 18 total this month. The previous record going back to 1950 of the largest # of 96+ days in a year was the 11 days of 1987.

Edit: Miami's mean so far today is 90. If the AM low of 82 holds up for today's low, the 90 mean would tie with 7/24/1983 for the hottest mean on record!

[GaWx]

 The very shallow (5 ft) waters at the Johnson Key buoy in N FL Bay hit 97.2F today at 6PM, the first time the SST got back into the upper 90s since the week before last. It was very dry today. The AM SST low was 88.9F meaning at least an 8.3F spread today, which has been fairly typical there since I started checking it a few weeks ago.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

[bluewave]

 

[GaWx]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The very shallow (5 ft) waters at the Johnson Key buoy in N FL Bay hit 97.2F today at 6PM, the first time the SST got back into the upper 90s since the week before last. It was very dry today. The AM SST low was 88.9F meaning at least an 8.3F spread today, which has been fairly typical there since I started checking it a few weeks ago.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

 Regarding the SST the Johnson Key buoy's low this morning was 1.1 warmer than yesterday meaning 90.0 (8AM). Today's 3PM SST of 96.1 is 1.3 warmer than the 94.8 of 24 hours ago. There's potentially still another 3 hours of SST warming with full sunshine and no showers anywhere nearby. Thus, there's a good chance that yesterday's 97.2 SST high will be exceeded today.

Edit: An hour later (4PM) the SST rose from 96.1 to 97.5 with potentially another two hours of warming.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1