Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 A most fitting title for the circumstances. Good enough model agreement in a general sense that somebody is likely to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I feel like it's actually been a while since we've had one of these, even a weak/se failure mode one. The bar is already so low that there's really nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I see this thread lit up with the overnight model runs. Will check morning AFD's for verification.Ah, the all important caveat to hang your hat on: IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL SOME 1500 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO THIS MORNING, AND CURRENT MODEL EVOLUTION INVOLVES AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WHEN IT REACHES OUR REGION THREE DAYS FROM NOW. THUS WOULD EXPECT GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAKING DISCUSSION OF EVENTUAL LOCAL IMPACTS MORE GENERAL AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The ole NW Ohio dryslot hitting hard on this at the moment but it brings Detroit proper in as well. Still a lot of spread, GFS showing a nice Chicago to Traverse City special there. Still not overly impressed with the cold air in place, I think that cuts down snow totals from what the models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 System really gets going and has a nice hit for MI on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Low path through IN, supposed deepening as it enters MI... Where have I seen this evolution before? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 white rain at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: white rain at best I was wondering why you hadn't thrown out a number yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 There is just no antecedent cold air mass for this, sadly. Agree with Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 A key question with this is how quickly that temps can fall back in the def zone. With 925 mb temps falling below 0C and some moderate precip rates (if not temporarily heavy), plus being in the middle of January, you would think that it shouldn't be hard to get temps to settle down to around 32-33 in the heart of the band. But it will be crucial to see how fast that occurs because the window for good snow rates at any given location does not look terribly long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 That Euro run gives me like 6 inches on the 10:1 map. I expect ratios to be a little worse than that. We could thread the needle to about 4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 Chicago/south will do best in the LOT cwa if the models are on track. Something we have seen quite a few times in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Congrats ORD/DTW. Cold rain with wraparound mood flakes for FWA, per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Congrats ORD/DTW. Cold rain with wraparound mood flakes for FWA, per usual. Ehh I think things get cranking a lil too late for dtw to get a decent storm. Ontario looks alot better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: Congrats ORD/DTW. Cold rain with wraparound mood flakes for FWA, per usual. this one not for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: this one not for ORD You DOA'd it up the thread... was that for everybody or for ORD? I'm so very confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You DOA'd it up the thread... was that for everybody or for ORD? I'm so very confused. ORD. This is for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Looks like some sprinkles with a few mixed wet flakes beneath the thin overcast for this area. Top 5 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 More like threading the needle of a Smurf sewing set. That’s the hole we gotta go thru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 00z GFS has less/delayed interaction with the northern stream, thus a less snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: white rain at best $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: $$$ could very well scoot to the south and east. Call me when we get a wound up Oklahoma Hooker in winter. It's been a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Baum said: could very well scoot to the south and east. Call me when we get a wound up Oklahoma Hooker in winter. It's been a minute. It's unreal the streak were on of systems we've seen end up weaker and scoot/slide SE instead of ramping up. I havent paid attention to the systems that have delivered for msp, but i think those ended up weaker even though they've delivered a few 6-12 events. I think with it being colder and better ratios has helped in the snow totals in those msp events. It's gotta be some kind of equations they're inserting in these model updates in the 80-130 hr time frame to have then portray amped up systems 4-7 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 26 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's unreal the streak were on of systems we've seen end up weaker and scoot/slide SE instead of ramping up. I havent paid attention to the systems that have delivered for msp, but i think those ended up weaker even though they've delivered a few 6-12 events. I think with it being colder and better ratios has helped in the snow totals in those msp events. It's gotta be some kind of equations they're inserting in these model updates in the 80-130 hr time frame to have then portray amped up systems 4-7 days out. here's the equation: + = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Something to track for the Chicago crew before the non thread the needle event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 hyped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Something to track for the Chicago crew before the non thread the needle event. Top 3 winter event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Mid January and no cold air for a sub 1000 mb low to drop snow. Climate change for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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