January 13-14 Ski Season Savior

[fz583]

My father is in PI behind the sled shop, buddies rent on Little Madawaska for the winter. 

[SJonesWX]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think north of caribou is definitely where you want to be with this one.  I don’t think Presque isle is gonna do all to well in this next one, unless this goes east some.  
 

My buddies and I have a cabin rented In Sinclair for the winter….we’re hopping this gets them in the game, so we can get up there and do some sledding. 

holy cow, that is a long drive fromn CT!

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I think north of caribou is definitely where you want to be with this one.  I don’t think Presque isle is gonna do all to well in this next one, unless this goes east some.  
 

My buddies and I have a cabin rented In Sinclair for the winter….we’re hopping this gets them in the game, so we can get up there and do some sledding. 

Double post-my bad

[dryslot]

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think north of caribou is definitely where you want to be with this one.  I don’t think Presque isle is gonna do all to well in this next one, unless this goes east some.  
 

My buddies and I have a cabin rented In Sinclair for the winter….we’re hopping this gets them in the game, so we can get up there and do some sledding. 

They are going to do fine there.

[dryslot]

One thing i've been noticing, Is the lead northern stream s/w is getting a few tics further east before it phases with the southern s/w which has allowed the surface low to track into BGM and then VT instead of Ontario, Were starting to also see the cold air sinking a little more south with some front end snows starting to show up in more areas, Something to continue to watch as we get closer, That's usually the time when models start picking up on the colder air, 12z Euro shows it as well.

[Modfan2]

25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One thing i've been noticing, Is the lead northern stream s/w is getting a few tics further east before it phases with the southern s/w which has allowed the surface low to track into BGM and then VT instead of Ontario, Were starting to also see the cold air sinking a little more south with some front end snows starting to show up in more areas, Something to continue to watch as we get closer, That's usually the time when models start picking up on the colder air, 12z Euro shows it as well.

Euro seems to give everyone some snow on the back side

[eyewall]

I only wish I could get to Mammoth Lakes right now. Down here in NC I am planning on catching the uplsope snow in the mountains after the cutter but not to ski of course.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Euro seems to give everyone some snow on the back side

Didn't see much on the backend, That looked front loaded to me, Its a clown map just for a reference to something i've been watching, In the end, Its not going to help a whole lot out but it will probably end up a bit better in the areas that were inline from the get go anyways to get a bit more in the way of snow before it changes over.

[NW_of_GYX]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

One thing i've been noticing, Is the lead northern stream s/w is getting a few tics further east before it phases with the southern s/w which has allowed the surface low to track into BGM and then VT instead of Ontario, Were starting to also see the cold air sinking a little more south with some front end snows starting to show up in more areas, Something to continue to watch as we get closer, That's usually the time when models start picking up on the colder air, 12z Euro shows it as well.

 

This has had that CAD look for a while now 

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

This has had that CAD look for a while now 

And this is the time frame its starts to show up too on modeling, Just don't want to see any regression.

[dryslot]

Here's GYX's crack at this one

[NW_of_GYX]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Here's GYX's crack at this one

That’s a good forecast at this lead. Wouldn’t be surprised if that verifies. 

[dryslot]

That's a pretty good CAD wedge on the 18z Nam, That may lead to a pretty good front end thump verbatim, 3k also has it, So mesos are picking up on it now.

[NW_of_GYX]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's a pretty good CAD wedge on the 18z Nam, That may lead to a pretty good front end thump verbatim, 3k also has it, So mesos are picking up on it now.

I’m always skeptical of the strength of the cold air on the coastal plain. Sell that for now

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I’m always skeptical of the strength of the cold air on the coastal plain. Sell that for now

I'm not seeing i live here, Last week was a great example as we remained in the 20's on the last storm, looks like HP is nosing in from the NE which generally is a good direction here into here.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

One thing i've been noticing, Is the lead northern stream s/w is getting a few tics further east before it phases with the southern s/w which has allowed the surface low to track into BGM and then VT instead of Ontario, Were starting to also see the cold air sinking a little more south with some front end snows starting to show up in more areas, Something to continue to watch as we get closer, That's usually the time when models start picking up on the colder air, 12z Euro shows it as well.

Getting slightly interesting. Probably gives me 3 to 4 and Bryan 4-6.  Looks like you’re on the edge also. I still don’t expect that much snow but it’s good to see a trend in that direction so we can at least enjoy it for a little while.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Euro seems to give everyone some snow on the back side

Backside snow here is less common than 20" dumps, though sometimes we get some delayed accum when the ULL passes overhead.

[ariof]

Congrats YMX / YQB on the NAM.

IIRC YQB was getting some rain a few runs ago on some models so that's a slight improvement overall.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Getting slightly interesting. Probably gives me 3 to 4 and Bryan 4-6.  Looks like you’re on the edge also. I still don’t expect that much snow but it’s good to see a trend in that direction so we can at least enjoy it for a little while.

3K was even colder, That bleed from the HP to the north i think is real, Obviously we need to see it continue without regression.

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Backside snow here is less common than 20" dumps, though sometimes we get some delayed accum when the ULL passes overhead.

You look like you could be in a good spot for some on the front end, Backside stuff i never am here down sloping on NW winds.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I think north of caribou is definitely where you want to be with this one.  I don’t think Presque isle is gonna do all to well in this next one, unless this goes east some.  
 

My buddies and I have a cabin rented In Sinclair for the winter….we’re hopping this gets them in the game, so we can get up there and do some sledding. 

Nice central location for N. Maine - not too far from the rail trail, and going the other way, good access into North Maine Woods.  I assume you've ridden into Deboullie, one of my favorite places though I've only been there once on a sled.  Usually not groomed but almost always with trails broken out (unless one happens to be first in).

[NW_of_GYX]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm not seeing i live here, Last week was a great example as we remained in the 20's on the last storm, looks like HP is nosing in from the NE which generally is a good direction here into here.

Good point and I think euro led the globals on that as well 

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

3K was even colder, That bleed from the HP to the north i think is real, Obviously we need to see it continue without regression.

You look like you could be i a good spot for some on the front end, Backside stuff i never am here down sloping on NW winds.

GYX map has MBY in the 2-3" color.  Nam is nicer, 7-8".  Either way, 20 miles one way or the other doubles or halves the forecast here.  Still 2 days before the meat arrives; would love to have a forecast sequence like mid December, when GYX cut the 10-16 forecast to 8-12 as first flakes were falling, then both forecasts busted way low. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

GYX map has MBY in the 2-3" color.  Nam is nicer, 7-8".  Either way, 20 miles one way or the other doubles or halves the forecast here.  Still 2 days before the meat arrives; would love to have a forecast sequence like mid December, when GYX cut the 10-16 forecast to 8-12 as first flakes were falling, then both forecasts busted way low. 

Positive bust are the best.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Good point and I think euro led the globals on that as well 

Yes it did, GFS fell on its face.

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

holy cow, that is a long drive fromn CT!

Ya it’s a haul, 8.5-10 hrs depending on road conditions, and weather.  Usually about 9 hrs. …but well worth it. Been doing it almost 30 yrs.  Just a Fabulous place to snowmobile. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We have until 48 hours before our ski days to reschedule for another time this winter. 

[Modfan2]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We have until 48 hours before our ski days to reschedule for another time this winter. 

I thought that after the last rain and went to Wachusett and skiing was actually pretty decent

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We have until 48 hours before our ski days to reschedule for another time this winter. 

I know your going to North Conway, But where are you skiing?

[NorEastermass128]

29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We have until 48 hours before our ski days to reschedule for another time this winter. 

I vote reschedule. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I know your going to North Conway, But where are you skiing?

Cranmore, essentially right in North Conway lol