Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 GFS interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: GFS interesting Always is…more like head scratching …puzzling…confuddling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS interesting Yes... snow to rain is interesting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, yoda said: Yes... snow to rain is interesting lol Better than what we’ve had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 ..... at this point I'd be happy just to see flakes falling. Morning low 34 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Juicy 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Some nice weenie runs for the event tomorrow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looking at guidance as a whole, including recent NAMs (which were pretty good compared to earlier runs today) it kinda seems like somewhere a band will set up and maybe drop a slushy T-2”. Who knows where that’ll be… EPS would say north, Canadian kinda south, NAMs/GFS around DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking at guidance as a whole, including recent NAMs (which were pretty good compared to earlier runs today) it kinda seems like somewhere a band will set up and maybe drop a slushy T-2”. Who knows where that’ll be… EPS would say north, Canadian kinda south, NAMs/GFS around DC. We better embrace it, because we are headed down a slippery slope and I don’t mean from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking at guidance as a whole, including recent NAMs (which were pretty good compared to earlier runs today) it kinda seems like somewhere a band will set up and maybe drop a slushy T-2”. Who knows where that’ll be… EPS would say north, Canadian kinda south, NAMs/GFS around DC. Column looks pretty good tomorrow evening for snow( except for extreme boundary layer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We better embrace it, because we are headed down a slippery slope and I don’t mean from snow. I see what you did there. Slippery slope. Double meaning. I’m feeling good about this one. Not sure why and have no good reason to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 WB 18Z 3K NAM….2023 version of DC being NAM’D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM….2023 version of DC being NAM’D. 1.6 would be a gift from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 NAM 3km shows a robust burst of snow with -4 omega right over the DGZ with saturated profile, indicating optimal dendrite growth. If this verified it would really be coming down, and there would be accumulating snow. This is a very good sounding, other than the marginal temps riding 0C isotherm. With dynamic cooling the ptype would be snow. Will send positive SD change when its done loading on TT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 based on the recent models i think we're starting to see a slow wobble back north with more widespread precip. let's hope this continues into tomorrow bc then the metro could really get in on some rush hour heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see what you did there. Slippery slope. Double meaning. I’m feeling good about this one. Not sure why and have no good reason to Just my old military talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Welp. It was marginal at best. But looking like a non-event out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 To add something else in for fun since this isn’t a super serious event, the 12z SHEiLD has a good swath of snow. Jumped north and substantially wetter than its 0z run. Just need it to jump north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To add something else in for fun since this isn’t a super serious event, the 12z SHEiLD has a good swath of snow. Jumped north and substantially wetter than its 0z run. Just need it to jump north. Rather this than hoping for south trend. I like my spot to see something other than nothing…yours too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 WWA up for the SW portion of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Quite the detailed disco from Mount Holly on this weak little pos system that is our best hope for snow to this point and going forward(sadly). We talking.. Dynamic cooling. Snippet from the afternoon AFD- An initially cool and dry airmass in place across the area will be overtaken by weak warm advection into Sunday evening as heights begin to fall and broad upper diffluence spreads over the area. Light precipitation is expected to spread into the region during the evening hours, generally from southwest to northeast. Given the subtle and broad forcing mechanisms and marginal thermal profiles with this system, confidence remains fairly low on exactly how the precipitation types (rain or snow) and amounts will evolve. That being said, current indications in the guidance are that there will be a period of snow across portions of the area, especially at the onset of precipitation before the warm advection begins switching the precip type over to mostly rain from south to north into the urban corridor. Precipitation is currently expected to start mainly as light snow near the Philly metro and mainly as light rain farther south across a line from near Kent Island to Dover to Cape May. However, if any banding or stronger intensity of precipitation occurs to the south, some will probably snow mix in early in the event farther to the south near the aforementioned line due to dynamic cooling. The thermal profiles will support a rain or snow precip type, and little to no sleet or freezing rain is expected. The precipitation may come in two waves, first during the evening and a second overnight during the predawn hours. In any case, the thermal profiles will begin to support mainly rain in the Philly metro and south with rain and snow possible farther north into the early morning hours. Although again, any heavier/banded precip that develops could change rain back over to snow due to dynamic cooling. This could lower surface temperatures just enough for additional light accumulation in grassy and elevated surfaces. North of the Philly metro and I-95 corridor, and especially north of I-78, the biggest question is how far north does the accumulating precipitation get. The antecedent airmass will be fairly dry, so as forcing decreases to the north, the QPF should as well. We currently have the higher QPF near the Philly metro and areas to the south generally ranging from a tenth to two tenths of an inch. We are currently forecasting less than an inch of snow for the entire forecast area for Sunday night. If more intense or banded precipitation develops near the Philly metro or areas to the north, snow duration and thus amounts may be locally higher than we currently have advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 My forecast has the generic rain/snow with a half inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 hours ago, CAPE said: My forecast has the generic rain/snow with a half inch or less. your getting less than half inch or less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Latest runs suck. Can’t even steal a T anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Euro looked decent lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 59 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looked decent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 hours ago, Ji said: your getting less than half inch or less Ofc because NWS will rarely completely disregard the GFS and when it is the lone consistently snowy or colder model it never wins. And it lost again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 26/24 cloudy here in NW Augusta County. Smells like snow outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 32/25. I dont think the temps are going to be an issue out this way. The lack of precip will be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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