clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 00z NAM coming in as slow as the snow will accumulate Sunday night. Yeah. It is dry as a popcorn fart so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The models have been flat out awful the past few years and this year seems to be the worst. Models can’t even keep the same solution for 6hrs for a 48-60hr out system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, TSSN+ said: The models have been flat out awful the past few years and this year seems to be the worst. Models can’t even keep the same solution for 6hrs for a 48-60hr out system. Because they are strung out complicated systems. Wait until we get a Miller A. They will be locked in for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 NAM going to be South and weak...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, ChillinIt said: NAM going to be South and weak...... Colder drier my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Failure seems inevitable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, DE2PA said: Failure seems inevitable 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, ChillinIt said: NAM going to be South and weak...... Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Colder drier my friend. Ah THERE'S the cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looks like all the guidance so far is weak and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 So easy to fail around here. Hard to get excited anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Man we can't even get this right, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 imo it's better to get one bad suite now before the day of. usually it means we can only improve from here on out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: probably not though @high riskusually chimes in at some point to say the snow depth map is wrong too. I'll take Kuchera and roll with the punches when it underdelivers a bit come snow time... if snow time comes. Actually, it warms my heart to see so many people posting the accumulated snow depth maps, as the 10:1 maps are for sure going to be inflated. That said, while I strongly support the snow depth products, they can run low in events in which the soil is warm. If we can hold off the snow until dinner time and get some decent rates, it might stick a bit ore efficiently than the snow depth maps show. Not a fan of the Kuchera. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 And once again it looks like a lot of partly cloudy here. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Actually, it warms my heart to see so many people posting the accumulated snow depth maps, as the 10:1 maps are for sure going to be inflated. That said, while I strongly support the snow depth products, they can run low in events in which the soil is warm. If we can hold off the snow until dinner time and get some decent rates, it might stick a bit ore efficiently than the snow depth maps show. Not a fan of the Kuchera.Appreciate you weighing in - seriously! Fingers crossed we have a reason to use those maps come tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Euro could be something for the MRB/Winchester crew if it's heavy enough. Looks like a decent thump between 8 pm and midnight...maybe the higher spots get a couple inches? surface temps are pretty marginal...like 33-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 maybe if I was above like 800 feet and in the right spot I might pay attention...I havent really followed this much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: hrrr is nice Not for northern balt county. That looks like Jan 3 , 2022 for us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 hours ago, TSSN+ said: The models have been flat out awful the past few years and this year seems to be the worst. Models can’t even keep the same solution for 6hrs for a 48-60hr out system. Ive been saying this for years every since the major update to models I think in 2016 they have got worse. Yet people just call me a weanie haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 given that we js need more qpf to snow better, idk if it's just me but i always feel like moisture overperforms and models always underdo moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: given that we js need more qpf to snow better, idk if it's just me but i always feel like moisture overperforms and models always underdo moisture Lol, that’s the exact opposite of what really happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: given that we js need more qpf to snow better, idk if it's just me but i always feel like moisture overperforms and models always underdo moisture Tbh since I moved here, it seemed qpf underperforms here almost every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Keep your expectations low and you can’t be disappointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12k puts a decent band over DC - would make a few folks happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12k puts a decent band over DC - would make a few folks happy. Don’t know how much I’d trust the NAMs after their past runs always looking pretty different from one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Don’t know how much I’d trust the NAMs after their past runs always looking pretty different from one another. So true, it’s been everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Don’t know how much I’d trust the NAMs after their past runs always looking pretty different from one another. I wouldn’t - just nothing else to look at in the short or long term, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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