clueless Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This might be the best MBY sees this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Clueless said: This might be the best MBY sees this month. Wouldn't say that just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm starting to like the trends out of both NAM and GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gimme any slush!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: for the realists out there... NAM snow depth I understand what you are saying about the end result and what is otg, but at this point I would pay to see inches of snow falling from the sky even if they are disappearing as they hit the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I guess I should take some interest in this, since it is our next threat and potentially the biggest of the winter!! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: I guess I should take some interest in this, since it is our next threat and potentially the biggest of the winter!! You could get some BES. Bay effect snow enhancement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I understand what you are saying about the end result and what is otg, but at this point I would pay to see inches of snow falling from the sky even if they are disappearing as they hit the ground! Hope you find what you’re looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: for the realists out there... NAM snow depth I'd honestly take this all day long and 7 days a week. Just want to see ANY snow. A few flakes to see would be lovely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, H2O said: I'd honestly take this all day long and 7 days a week. Just want to see ANY snow. A few flakes to see would be lovely. Agreed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 When I first moved down here from Michigan in 2004 we got a couple 2-4" snowfalls and I was like "cool, the DC area isn't bad". Now I think it's an eternal hellhole for snow and outside of 2009-2010 (and maybe 2016) it's useless for anything other than derechos and humidity. I actually have snowshoes, wtf am I going to do with that shit now? Bring on global warming at this point, at least we can have anoles and geckos. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 NAMed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 18z EURO has a better stripe of snow that runs thru CHO-DCA. Maybe a 10-1 inch so probably a bit better than a coating in reality. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, H2O said: You could get some BES. Bay effect snow enhancement Not likely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAMed Takes another sip of beer. We abscond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Would be super nice just to see a dusting or coating of wet snow, hoping we can have an event continue to trend better within 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 RGEM is really similar to the NAM fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 NAMed That’s what I’m talking about! If I can squeeze an inch of snow out of this and see flakes fall for a few hours, I’d be happy. I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds. Idc how much models have improved over the years.. no one can convince me that models fully know how to decipher a given setup when most of the players in question are nowhere near being onshore. Models depend on data - and until they have that data, they are simply guessing how things will shake out to the best of their ability. Certainly that ability has improved over time, but it’s nowhere near perfect. We see booms on the regular in these parts - especially during overrunning events Models can’t even agree on this Sunday ordeal (48 hours out) yet folks are committing weenie suicide run to run over the 15th ordeal. Makes no logical sense to me. Let’s reel this sucker in! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds. There is so much right about this quote right here. Outside 3 or 4 days the op runs are a straight up mirage. So many of our marginal events sneak up within that 3 or 4 day timeframe that it basically means nothing to look at models beyond that point. Even earlier this season when I was all in on the incredible look that was coming within the next 10 days I got burnt. BAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 0Z HRRR much colder this run. Even DC folks will like this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 0Z HRRR much colder this run. Even DC folks will like this run. Hook a brother up with a snapshot (if you’re able!) I’m currently driving home from WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, jayyy said: Hook a brother up with a snapshot (if you’re able!) I’m currently driving home from WV . You want temps or the sparse precip it shows? HRRR out in LONG range I only use for temps. But here ya go. This is mid dayish Sunday: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 SREF mean doubled from 0.2” to 0.4” of snow for DCA on the 21z run. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 LWX not quite sold yet. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridging aloft expected Saturday night. The next low pressure system will approach Sunday into Sunday night. Most late afternoon and evening model guidance show more of a wintry mix or snow scenario across parts of our region rather than mostly rain. There will still be rain over a large portion but somewhere in the region could get a light accumulation of snow. Icing does appear most likely at or above 2kft AGL across the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, and Potomac Highlands. Still expecting rather minor icing amounts at this juncture. Will continue to monitor future models and trends. Uncertainty remains high given the thermodynamic profiles. We`ll continue to monitor this system and refine our forecast over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: LWX not quite sold yet. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridging aloft expected Saturday night. The next low pressure system will approach Sunday into Sunday night. Most late afternoon and evening model guidance show more of a wintry mix or snow scenario across parts of our region rather than mostly rain. There will still be rain over a large portion but somewhere in the region could get a light accumulation of snow. Icing does appear most likely at or above 2kft AGL across the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, and Potomac Highlands. Still expecting rather minor icing amounts at this juncture. Will continue to monitor future models and trends. Uncertainty remains high given the thermodynamic profiles. We`ll continue to monitor this system and refine our forecast over the next few days. Don’t ruin our Friday night buzz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, nj2va said: Don’t ruin our Friday night buzz. We’re getting buried. Don’t worry. Enjoy the buzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 There is so much right about this quote right here. Outside 3 or 4 days the op runs are a straight up mirage. So many of our marginal events sneak up within that 3 or 4 day timeframe that it basically means nothing to look at models beyond that point. Even earlier this season when I was all in on the incredible look that was coming within the next 10 days I got burnt. BAD. I think we all got burnt pretty badly by that ordeal! You’re not alone there. That was honestly the final straw for me on looking too closely at any threat outside of D5ish. Ill look at ensembles through D10 or so to get a general idea on the overall setup being depicted at 500mb (even that changes a lot of the time) but trying to decipher details such as phase timing, surface low track, exact position of a high up north, energy transfers, ridge axis, etc? ON OPERATIONAL MODELS? Heck no. Why get so emotionally invested in something that will change literally 100x between then and game time. I’m getting too old for all of that anxiety. Have a decent feeling about someone seeing a solid couple inches out of this Sun night ordeal between my area and yours the way things are trending atm. Nothing crazy, but 1-2” sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 You want temps or the sparse precip it shows? HRRR out in LONG range I only use for temps. But here ya go. This is mid dayish Sunday: Definitely a colder look there than we saw a day ago. Hmmm! Tomorrows runs will be interesting. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 hrrr is nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 00z NAM coming in as slow as the snow will accumulate Sunday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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