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January 8th-9th Snow Threat


DarkSharkWX
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16 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I understand what you are saying about the end result and what is otg, but at this point I would pay to see inches of snow falling from the sky even if they are disappearing as they hit the ground!

Hope you find what you’re looking for. :) 

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When I first moved down here from Michigan in 2004 we got a couple 2-4" snowfalls and I was like "cool, the DC area isn't bad".  Now I think it's an eternal hellhole for snow and outside of 2009-2010 (and maybe 2016) it's useless for anything other than derechos and humidity.  I actually have snowshoes, wtf am I going to do with that shit now?   Bring on global warming at this point, at least we can have anoles and geckos.  

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NAMed
ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 

That’s what I’m talking about! If I can squeeze an inch of snow out of this and see flakes fall for a few hours, I’d be happy.

I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds. Idc how much models have improved over the years.. no one can convince me that models fully know how to decipher a given setup when most of the players in question are nowhere near being onshore. Models depend on data - and until they have that data, they are simply guessing how things will shake out to the best of their ability. Certainly that ability has improved over time, but it’s nowhere near perfect. We see booms on the regular in these parts - especially during overrunning events

Models can’t even agree on this Sunday ordeal (48 hours out) yet folks are committing weenie suicide run to run over the 15th ordeal. Makes no logical sense to me.

Let’s reel this sucker in!


.
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds.

There is so much right about this quote right here. Outside 3 or 4 days the op runs are a straight up mirage. So many of our marginal events sneak up within that 3 or 4 day timeframe that it basically means nothing to look at models beyond that point. Even earlier this season when I was all in on the incredible look that was coming within the next 10 days I got burnt. BAD. 

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LWX not quite sold yet. 
 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging aloft expected Saturday night. The next low pressure system will approach Sunday into Sunday night. Most late afternoon and evening model guidance show more of a wintry mix or snow scenario across parts of our region rather than mostly rain. There will still be rain over a large portion but somewhere in the region could get a light accumulation of snow. Icing does appear most likely at or above 2kft AGL across the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, and Potomac Highlands. Still expecting rather minor icing amounts at this juncture. Will continue to monitor future models and trends. Uncertainty remains high given the thermodynamic profiles. We`ll continue to monitor this system and refine our forecast over the next few days.
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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

LWX not quite sold yet. 
 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging aloft expected Saturday night. The next
low pressure system will approach Sunday into Sunday night.
Most late afternoon and evening model guidance show more of a
wintry mix or snow scenario across parts of our region rather
than mostly rain. There will still be rain over a large portion
but somewhere in the region could get a light accumulation of
snow. Icing does appear most likely at or above 2kft AGL across
the Blue Ridge, Allegheny, and Potomac Highlands. Still
expecting rather minor icing amounts at this juncture. Will
continue to monitor future models and trends. Uncertainty
remains high given the thermodynamic profiles. We`ll continue
to monitor this system and refine our forecast over the next few
days.

Don’t ruin our Friday night buzz.  :hurrbear:

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There is so much right about this quote right here. Outside 3 or 4 days the op runs are a straight up mirage. So many of our marginal events sneak up within that 3 or 4 day timeframe that it basically means nothing to look at models beyond that point. Even earlier this season when I was all in on the incredible look that was coming within the next 10 days I got burnt. BAD. 

I think we all got burnt pretty badly by that ordeal! You’re not alone there. That was honestly the final straw for me on looking too closely at any threat outside of D5ish. Ill look at ensembles through D10 or so to get a general idea on the overall setup being depicted at 500mb (even that changes a lot of the time) but trying to decipher details such as phase timing, surface low track, exact position of a high up north, energy transfers, ridge axis, etc? ON OPERATIONAL MODELS? Heck no. Why get so emotionally invested in something that will change literally 100x between then and game time. I’m getting too old for all of that anxiety.

Have a decent feeling about someone seeing a solid couple inches out of this Sun night ordeal between my area and yours the way things are trending atm. Nothing crazy, but 1-2” sounds good to me.
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