MDScienceTeacher Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: When most here speak of 'big ones' it's usually in reference to a KU. Well, except for ravensrule that is. For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events. If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care. Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life. I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow. Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, frd said: Yes, many folks were. Weather weenies, like most people, get caught up in the emotion of the moment. It was pretty clear at the time that the advertised pattern was not close to a 'can't miss'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events. If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care. Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life. I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow. Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in.. even a 4-8” event would be awesome, better to focus on the individual events than spending sm time worrying about whether the season will reach average snow or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events. If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care. Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life. I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow. Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in.. I have been on here for years, and I know that KU storms are the biggest of all the storms. However, I still have no idea what the abbreviation stands for. Can someone enlighten me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: For years, all I would care about would be the big time snow events. If the long range model wasnt putting out 12+ inches, then I didnt care. Over the years however, I have learned that this is a losing proposition and promotes misery in my life. I think I finally have gotten to the point where I would be happy with just some snow. Or maybe more frequent smaller storms. Getting wrapped up in the KUs and BECS and HECS and Bombs etc is a tough business to be in.. I am all about getting snow that I can go out in and experience and enjoy. That means having at least a few days of actual cold. Even a few inches will do. Last Jan was fantastic for that here. We pretty much know when we are in for a biggie as the signal on guidance typically locks in within 5 days, and in most cases that involves a Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet. Understood, sitting at 0.0 inches on the season so 4-8 would feel pretty dang ole big. Just trying to get excited for some real threat tracking as opposed to “in 15 days the pattern gets good”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I am all about getting snow that I can go out in and experience and enjoy. That means having at least a few days of actual cold. Even a few inches will do. Last Jan was fantastic for that here. We pretty much know when we are in for a biggie as the signal on guidance typically locks in within 5 days, and in most cases that involves a Nino. Oh I just realized that you are on the eastern shore.. didnt you guys have a top ten season last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Understood, sitting at 0.0 inches on the season so 4-8 would feel pretty dang ole big. Just trying to get excited for some real threat tracking as opposed to “in 15 days the pattern gets good”. 18z is not even close. Not even a hint of anything. Not saying it’s right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 18z is not even close. Not even a hint of anything. Not saying it’s right. It was fun while it lasted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 18z is not even close. Not even a hint of anything. Not saying it’s right. an op model 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: an op model 10 days out Yeah I know. But the players aren’t even on the field. They are not even in the city they are playing in. Plenty of time I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 18z is not even close. Not even a hint of anything. Not saying it’s right. It looked a lot like the 12z euro around D6-7, and then it just went crazy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Oh I just realized that you are on the eastern shore.. didnt you guys have a top ten season last year? No lol. Had around 20" here, almost all of it in Jan. The beaches did better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: It looked a lot like the 12z euro around D6-7, and then it just went crazy. Yeah. I fear it’s not our year with all roads leading to the same destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 OP GFS has always been a bad model, but I feel like it has been absolutely atrocious this year. Anyone have the model validation chart? I wouldn’t worry even a little bit what this model shows beyond 120 hours. Keep looking at the GEFS. Yea they’ll follow the leader a little bit, but chess pieces still on the board at 18zLong way to go…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, WesternFringe said: I have been on here for years, and I know that KU storms are the biggest of all the storms. However, I still have no idea what the abbreviation stands for. Can someone enlighten me? Kocin Uccellini https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00453 https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: OP GFS has always been a bad model, but I feel like it has been absolutely atrocious this year. Anyone have the model validation chart? I wouldn’t worry even a little bit what this model shows beyond 120 hours. Keep looking at the GEFS. Yea they’ll follow the leader a little bit, but chess pieces still on the board at 18z Long way to go… . You seem a little skittish. Atrocious model? Validation chart? lol it's an op run 10 days out. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 You seem a little skittish. Atrocious model? Validation chart? lol it's an op run 10 days out. Chill.Huh? I was responding to others who seemed skittish about the OP run. I’d bet a large sum of $ it’s dead last in model verification though at day 5 beyond right now. 18z gfs did have the same wave, it split our 13/14th wave into S and N stream vorts btw. Regardless doesn’t matter going to be completely different in 5 hours . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: OP GFS has always been a bad model, but I feel like it has been absolutely atrocious this year. Anyone have the model validation chart? I wouldn’t worry even a little bit what this model shows beyond 120 hours. Keep looking at the GEFS. Yea they’ll follow the leader a little bit, but chess pieces still on the board at 18z Long way to go… . I posted skill score yesterday, it is doing badly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: Anyone have the model validation chart? 23 hours ago, frd said: GFS skill scores having a recent decline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Huh? I was responding to others who seemed skittish about the OP run. I’d bet a large sum of $ it’s dead last in model verification though at day 5 beyond right now. 18z gfs did have the same wave, it split our 13/14th wave into S and N stream vorts btw. Regardless doesn’t matter going to be completely different in 5 hours . Ok sorry if I misinterpreted, but calling a deterministic model atrocious and asking about validation scores based on one op run 10 days out makes it sound like you are worried, despite explicitly saying you aren't immediately after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 18z GEFS a bit further south, offshore, slightly weaker signal than 12z. Noise. On to the next cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS a bit further south, offshore, slightly weaker signal than 12z. Noise. On to the next cycle. I'd agree that it's noise. still keeps the focus on the late-week wave and this is still a formidable signal. all that matters right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 58 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yeah. I fear it’s not our year with all roads leading to the same destination. no need to freak out over an op run 10 days out gefs is trending to eps in all ways lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: When most here speak of 'big ones' it's usually in reference to a KU. Well, except for ravensrule that is. My man, i knew after 13 years i would finally get you out of your shell. I couldn't be prouder as a teacher. This may be my crowning achievement as a teacher. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: My man, i knew after 13 years i would finally get you out of your shell. I couldn't be prouder as a teacher. This may be my crowning achievement as a teacher. Trust me, no shell here. And I am a teacher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, ravensrule said: My man, i knew after 13 years i would finally get you out of your shell. I couldn't be prouder as a teacher. This may be my crowning achievement as a teacher. A climax for you, so to speak. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The MJO sure looks promising. Hopefully the teleconnections will soon trend more favorably. Has anyone ever tried correlating MJO phases with how teleconnections line up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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