January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[brooklynwx99]

even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO

that ULL over the TN Valley is classic

[DarkSharkWX]

I'd gladly take my chances with this system. It has everything that we need for snowstorms in the MA, a strong banana Canadian high, a tall ridge over the Rockies that amplifies as the S/W moves through, and now a 50/50 low. As others have said earlier, MJO progression into favorable phases also supports this with convection in the IO shutting off and -VP anomalies over the Americas. Now we just have to watch and wait to see what happens. Gonna be an interesting week of tracking upcoming...

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I said I was "interested" and that is all that is worth saying until we get it inside about 150 hours or so.  That is about the magic range where guidance has converged on the details that determine the outcome of these waves.  But from this range everything is there I want to see.  Its a good setup, pretty classic way we get a snowstorm really.  Just have to wait.  Keep in mind though, no matter how good the general setup is...even the absolute best threats are still way below a 50/50 bet at this range.  This is a good look, but that just means we have a 25% chance v a 2% or 7% chance of snow during any normal period at this range.  

@CAPE you're 100% right about the transient nature of our 50/50's but a lot of snowstorms come from that.  We actually want the 50/50 to slide out as the storm approaches.  A lot of our best storms came after blocking actually broke down.  There was no blocking by the time Jan 1996 and Jan 2016 happened...but the course of events was already set in motion.  There was no blocking in Feb 2003 either just even more lucky timing with the 50/50.  I am NOT comparing this setup to those, no one should expect a HECS here, although I do think this setup has decently high upside if it goes right BIG IF THERE, but just pointing out that a "transient" 50/50 isnt the worst thing in the world.  Very few of our snowstorms actually come from absolutely perfect setups in every way just because that rarely happens.  That's also why its frustrating when we keep failing with flawed but decently good setups.  Yea people are right when they focus on the very specific minor flaws that caused the fail...but by the same token we should be hitting some of these.  Our luck has been REALLY bad lately.  The we're due index needs to kick in soon here.  

I was just pointing out that there are more issues with timing and spacing in a progressive flow regime, with vortices on the move through the 50-50 space. Just saw that to a degree with the Euro run.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO

that ULL over the TN Valley is classic

Pretty classic surface depiction for a MA snowstorm.

[brooklynwx99]

the stronger storm on the 11th is now leading to a 50/50-type feature showing up on the EPS, which would lead to a lot more antecedent HP

[CAPE]

[psuhoffman]

I’m ok with a suppressed solution at 200+ hours same as we used to be ok with that at 100 hours decades ago. It’s going to adjust in some ways. 50/50 chance those adjustments are towards less suppression. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m ok with a suppressed solution at 200+ hours same as we used to be ok with that at 100 hours decades ago. It’s going to adjust in some ways. 50/50 chance those adjustments are towards less suppression. 

EPS lays out the test case for the Hudson Bay High lol.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m ok with a suppressed solution at 200+ hours same as we used to be ok with that at 100 hours decades ago. It’s going to adjust in some ways. 50/50 chance those adjustments are towards less suppression. 

Seems like 2 general camps in the EPS. One stronger that rides the coast. One generally a bit weaker that’s more suppressed. 

[DarkSharkWX]

Strong signal on EPS remains

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m ok with a suppressed solution at 200+ hours same as we used to be ok with that at 100 hours decades ago. It’s going to adjust in some ways. 50/50 chance those adjustments are towards less suppression. 

its over. 2001-2002 big one was a southern storm/scraper...similar to what the euro is showing. Its nina bro..were either getting a cutter or a southern slider

[SnowGolfBro]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

its over. 2001-2002 big one was a southern storm/scraper...similar to what the euro is showing. Its nina bro..were either getting a cutter or a southern slider

Liking the reverse psychology. It will probably be 85 degrees with palm trees next weekend. 

[Xeonon]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Liking the reverse psychology. It will probably be 85 degrees with palm trees next weekend. 

Nah, it'll be 70s and tornado warnings everywhere in the DELMARVA

[Xeonon]

Us down here in Central VA are so desperate to see a few flakes honestly. At least the last system you guys up there saw a quick burst

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

its over. 2001-2002 big one was a southern storm/scraper...similar to what the euro is showing. Its nina bro..were either getting a cutter or a southern slider

I agree with the skepticism, our base state has been suck, but this is overly simplistic.  1/96, 1/00, 2/06, 3/09, 1/11, 3/18 all were big storms in a Nina. We can get a snowstorm in a Nina. With the exception of 96 we just never string together multiple hits to produce a big season but one storm can and has happened quite often. 

[StormyClearweather]

Pretty good for this far out. 

 

[WEATHER53]

Weekend washout and now a preposterous representation Tuesday night into Wednesday of a costal low suddenly showing up in a perfect location off mid Atlantic after being north of Pittsburg 6 hours earlier.  When in the world will these models stop showing every possible outcome and begin to do forecasting?

[Terpeast]

Still 10 days out, but I’m glad the Euro is showing a trackable threat… and not just the GFS being on its own. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Weekend washout and now a preposterous representation Tuesday night into Wednesday of a costal low suddenly showing up in a perfect location off mid Atlantic after being north of Pittsburg 6 hours earlier.  When in the world will these models stop showing every possible outcome and begin to do forecasting?

They aren’t meant to be forecasts. They are simulations meant to be tools to make a forecast. The simulations incorporate so many variables and have to make so many assumptions where there are unknowns it’s totally logical that there are different permutations each run. Again, they aren’t a forecast, just a tool. 

[DarkSharkWX]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Strong signal on EPS remains

Some good hits on some of the individual members

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still 10 days out, but I’m glad the Euro is showing a trackable threat… and not just the GFS being on its own. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

There is a ton of agreement 174 hours out that a big storm is going to set up along with a trough over the eastern half of the country.  

 

Look at the agreement in the clustering of lows over Colorado.  Thats our storm for the 1/14 - 1/15 period: 

Now look at the 500 MB height anomaly a couple of panels later:

 

The trajectory of the isobars (WSW to ENE orientation) out in front of the upper level low steers that the storm  just to our south.  The low pressure out in the Atlantic also forces things to our south and reinforces cold air. 

 

It's a nice look IMHO. 

 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They aren’t meant to be forecasts. They are simulations meant to be tools to make a forecast. The simulations incorporate so many variables and have to make so many assumptions where there are unknowns it’s totally logical that there are different permutations each run. Again, they aren’t a forecast, just a tool. 

He knows this.

[SnowGolfBro]

9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

There is a ton if agreement 174 hours out that a big storm is going to set up along with a trough over the eastern half of the country.  

 

Look at the agreement in the clustering of lows over Colorado.  Thats our storm for the 1/14 - 1/15 period: 

Now look at the 500 MB height anomaly a couple of panels later:

 

The trajectory of the isobars (WSW to ENE orientation) out in front of the upper level low steers that the storm  just to our south.  The low pressure out in the Atlantic also forces things to our south and reinforces cold air. 

 

It's a nice look IMHO. 

 

The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”

[BristowWx]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”

I’m a little spooked so I am going with Calgary.  

[MDScienceTeacher]

Also.. dont believe what the GFS is spitting out in terms of that bombing low pressure over the canadian maritimes.  Here is the GFS for the first system.  Look how insane that is:

Here is the Ensemble for the same time period:

 

The ensemble favors the second system and keeps it from getting squashed/ suppressed to our south

[MDScienceTeacher]

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

When most here speak of 'big ones' it's usually in reference to a KU. Well, except for ravensrule that is.

[frd]

4 hours ago, nj2va said:

Wasn’t he also calling for snow chances based on the pattern in December?  Ultra LR ensembles shouldn’t be trusted that much.

Yes, many folks were.  

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I dont think this is a big one at all... but if you like simple straight forward user-friendly 4-8 inch area wide snow storm... this might be our best bet.

It's just something to track for the time being, though a closed ULL over the TN valley can produce a MECS+ if it stays the course/intensifies moving east instead of getting squashed (which the current modeling does).  The HP and 50/50 low placement might end up determining that part.