January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[frd]

 

Better score soon because record warmth might be in store for later in the month.  

 

 

[Weather Will]

Latest MJO forecast for GFS and EURO still take it into Phase 8 by the 12th.  Also 6Z run of the WB CFS keeps it chilly through mid February so we may have an extended period of time where at least the temperature will cooperate even if the short to mid term still does not show a discreet threat.

[Yeoman]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

hr 240 gives EGC/ORF measurable snow before us...file that one under GFS spits out a totally believable scenario

A day 10 model forecast is equally believable to predicting that unicorns will fly out of Randy's ass at 240 hrs. 

[Heisy]

That 11th event from OP GFS likely a mirage imo. I could see it being a strong closed off N stream disturbance that swings through NE.

Regardless it’s a very important piece to the puzzle since it will setup as our 50/50.

12z GEFS so far




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[Heisy]

Paging Dr Hoffman

Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP

You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas






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[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Paging Dr Hoffman

Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP

You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas

yeah, this is a great look. really nice to see that confluent flow in SE Canada keeping a strong HP in place there

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Paging Dr Hoffman

Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP

You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas






.

As long as the Euro still has it, this is an extremely small window to score something. Maybe a 24-36 hour window to get all the pieces in the right places. 

In a fast flow like this under a nina base state, this is a little harder to do than getting 2 torpedoes on target like Luke did against the death star. 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Better score soon because record warmth might be in store for later in the month.  

 

 

Man I hope this ain't somethin' squashed south and they see snow while we smoke cirrus...then go back to warm, smh That would just be cruel and unusual punishment, lol But ya know on the plus side...we do tend to do snow then big warmth well...so maybe this one can work out 

[WxUSAF]

GEFS does look pretty nice for the 13-14th window. Seems like more of a slider/redeveloper on the means, but that could still give us some snow as long as it’s not squashed to myrtle beach like the GGEM.

[nj2va]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Better score soon because record warmth might be in store for later in the month.  

 

 

Wasn’t he also calling for snow chances based on the pattern in December?  Ultra LR ensembles shouldn’t be trusted that much.

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wasn’t he also calling for snow chances based on the pattern in December?  Ultra LR ensembles shouldn’t be trusted that much.

Amen

[mattie g]

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wasn’t he also calling for snow chances based on the pattern in December?  Ultra LR ensembles shouldn’t be trusted that much.

Seriously. So clickbaity.

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wasn’t he also calling for snow chances based on the pattern in December?  Ultra LR ensembles shouldn’t be trusted that much.

Ultra LR ensembles wash out individual waves. And also could be dead wrong about the longwave pattern when it's time to verify. 

I'm not saying we get cold in that timeframe, just supporting the above reason why they can't be trusted too much.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Ultra LR ensembles wash out individual waves. And also could be dead wrong about the longwave pattern when it's time to verify. 

I'm not saying we get cold in that timeframe, just supporting the above reason why they can't be trusted too much.

If they could be trusted we would have been on the plus side of snow climo by now...instead many of us are looking for first flakes and opening the windows with the blinds partially closed 

[cbmclean]

Let's not hate on the LR ensembles too much.  The cold period that just passed was very disappointing, but it did occur, and it was reasonably impressive.  The current warm period was also well advertised on the models.

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Let's not hate on the LR ensembles too much.  The cold period that just passed was very disappointing, but it did occur, and it was reasonably impressive.  The current warm period was also well advertised on the models.

Agreed. The D8-15 ensembles have been pretty good this year at broad strokes (which is what they’re for). I’d mostly just say that another torch period in late January doesn’t mean winters over because no pattern has locked in very long for 2+ months. Not sure why that would suddenly change. But, seeing that look in late January does increase the urgency to get some snow beforehand.

[WxUSAF]

Euro has flurries and sprinkles for this weekend, but I’m definitely intrigued so far for our D9-10 window. Storm developing in the Rockies at hr174 with a good HP overtop and a piece is the trop PV sliding through eastern Canada.

[CAPE]

A couple things to consider wrt the pattern progression from mid month forward. Guidance has the MJO moving into 'favorable' phases for Jan-Feb. We have these 2 areas of anomalously low h5 heights in close proximity(a trough bridge), which seems unsustainable. Natural progression is for a ridge to develop in between, and that aligns with what is typically expected given the MJO forecast. The GEFS appears to be doing just that at the end of the run. I mentioned this in my post earlier, as the GEFS extended continues that progression to a more favorable h5 look for the last week of Jan. Who knows if this is correct, but it seems at least as plausible as looking at a snapshot from a mean and claiming another torch is coming.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro has flurries and sprinkles for this weekend, but I’m definitely intrigued so far for our D9-10 window. Storm developing in the Rockies at hr174 with a good HP overtop and a piece is the trop PV sliding through eastern Canada.

yeah, the stronger wave on the 12th leads to more confluence. the ridge upstream along the WC is amping up, too. this looks pretty good

[WxUSAF]

Pretty nice at hr198…can the euro find a way to cut it to Buffalo with a nearly 1050mb high over top and the PV in Quebec? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has flurries and sprinkles for this weekend, but I’m definitely intrigued so far for our D9-10 window. Storm developing in the Rockies at hr174 with a good HP overtop and a piece is the trop PV sliding through eastern Canada.

2 discrete threats next 7 days then a nice fantasy setup. But given the way this season has gone, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. Not saying YOU, just talking in general. Big dog setups always look good 10 days out. Usual caveats apply at this range.

[Heisy]

Here is our event…battle between main wave and our 50/50



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[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Pretty nice at hr198…can the euro find a way to cut it to Buffalo with a nearly 1050mb high over top and the PV in Quebec? 

Come on baby, daddy wants some digital blue…

[Heisy]

Pretty nice at hr198…can the euro find a way to cut it to Buffalo with a nearly 1050mb high over top and the PV in Quebec? 

50/50 is actually probably too strong this run, no way this thing cuts


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[Ralph Wiggum]

JMA was a nice run 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Heisy said:

50/50 is actually probably too strong this run, no way this thing cuts


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No, it’s not cutting. Hr216 is pretty classic for us. Low near Memphis and big banana high over the top. Snow breaking out in the NC mountains.

[Heisy]

Yea 50/50 actually overwhelms the shortwave, we want it a little farther NE. Delicate balance but at this range this is a perfectly good run. Just happy to continue seeing the same overall look


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[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Paging Dr Hoffman

Better everything this GEFS run, +PNA ridge, improved 5050, HP, SLP

You can kind of see SLP redevelopment with some HP bleeding down CAD areas






.

I said I was "interested" and that is all that is worth saying until we get it inside about 150 hours or so.  That is about the magic range where guidance has converged on the details that determine the outcome of these waves.  But from this range everything is there I want to see.  Its a good setup, pretty classic way we get a snowstorm really.  Just have to wait.  Keep in mind though, no matter how good the general setup is...even the absolute best threats are still way below a 50/50 bet at this range.  This is a good look, but that just means we have a 25% chance v a 2% or 7% chance of snow during any normal period at this range.  

@CAPE you're 100% right about the transient nature of our 50/50's but a lot of snowstorms come from that.  We actually want the 50/50 to slide out as the storm approaches.  A lot of our best storms came after blocking actually broke down.  There was no blocking by the time Jan 1996 and Jan 2016 happened...but the course of events was already set in motion.  There was no blocking in Feb 2003 either just even more lucky timing with the 50/50.  I am NOT comparing this setup to those, no one should expect a HECS here, although I do think this setup has decently high upside if it goes right BIG IF THERE, but just pointing out that a "transient" 50/50 isnt the worst thing in the world.  Very few of our snowstorms actually come from absolutely perfect setups in every way just because that rarely happens.  That's also why its frustrating when we keep failing with flawed but decently good setups.  Yea people are right when they focus on the very specific minor flaws that caused the fail...but by the same token we should be hitting some of these.  Our luck has been REALLY bad lately.  The we're due index needs to kick in soon here.  

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea 50/50 actually overwhelms the shortwave, we want it a little farther NE. Delicate balance but at this range this is a perfectly good run. Just happy to continue seeing the same overall look


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Tantalizingly close. I’d expect some nice hits in the ensembles.  If things developed just as the euro showed, it would come down the precise track, strength, and timing of the PV and 50/50 type low in Canada. Gonna be awhile before that is sorted. Lot to like about this window. 

[Heisy]

I said I was "interested" and that is all that is worth saying until we get it inside about 150 hours or so.  That is about the magic range where guidance has converged on the details that determine the outcome of these waves.  But from this range everything is there I want to see.  Its a good setup, pretty classic way we get a snowstorm really.  Just have to wait.  Keep in mind though, no matter how good the general setup is...even the absolute best threats are still way below a 50/50 bet at this range.  This is a good look, but that just means we have a 25% chance v a 2% or 7% chance of snow during any normal period at this range.  
[mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] you're 100% right about the transient nature of our 50/50's but a lot of snowstorms come from that.  We actually want the 50/50 to slide out as the storm approaches.  A lot of our best storms came after blocking actually broke down.  There was no blocking by the time Jan 1996 and Jan 2016 happened...but the course of events was already set in motion.  There was no blocking in Feb 2003 either just even more lucky timing with the 50/50.  I am NOT comparing this setup to those, no one should expect a HECS here, although I do think this setup has decently high upside if it goes right BIG IF THERE, but just pointing out that a "transient" 50/50 isnt the worst thing in the world.  Very few of our snowstorms actually come from absolutely perfect setups in every way just because that rarely happens.  That's also why its frustrating when we keep failing with flawed but decently good setups.  Yea people are right when they focus on the very specific minor flaws that caused the fail...but by the same token we should be hitting some of these.  Our luck has been REALLY bad lately.  The we're due index needs to kick in soon here.  

Yea, agreed. At this range we just wait and hope ensembles keep showing intrigue until like you said we get this around day 6.

Verbatim the 50/50 this run is too strong, which is what folks down in the Carolina’s want, but not us…. Still, solid run the pieces are still on the table


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