Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 10 hours ago, WinterFire said: The term atmospheric river was coined by Zhu and Newell at MIT in 1998: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/126/3/1520-0493_1998_126_0725_apafmf_2.0.co_2.xml The polar vortex and bomb cyclones have been discussed in academic contexts for decades. Just because something is new to you doesn’t mean it’s new, and the media using correct terminology in public communication is a good thing even when these terms are unfamiliar to you. Actually, atmospheric river terminology began back in the early 90s by Zhu iirc. I remember discussing research papers in 1995 back at Penn State. My point wasn't that these terms are made up...we all know what a polar vortex is so I really hope you don't think I was implying this is new. I was saying the media tends to use these terms to bombard the general public and was poking fun while trying to keep things light in here. In any event, I always preferred the term Pineapple Express wrt the West Coast stj impacts tho both are fairly Interchangeable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Is the late next week deal the first time the EPS has shown something trackable this winter? I just may not have been paying attention but it seems to be. A good cluster of LPs off the NC coast but the trough is still positively tilted so the mean is a bit more offshore than we’d like. But a signal for a coastal low and this far out, all we can ask for. I think it’s the best shot all year, but we’re still so far out and a lot has to go right leading up to that wave….so we wait…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I see the GFS pushed the Saturday precip to Sunday. Still a chance for some snow Sunday afternoon for those N&W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Actually, atmospheric river terminology began back in the early 90s by Zhu iirc. I remember discussing research papers in 1995 back at Penn State. My point wasn't that these terms are made up...we all know what a polar vortex is so I really hope you don't think I was implying this is new. I was saying the media tends to use these terms to bombard the general public and was poking fun while trying to keep things light in here. In any event, I always preferred the term Pineapple Express wrt the West Coast stj impacts tho both are fairly Interchangeable. I tend to agree with this...some producer will see a clip from an AFD and then run with it and the meteorological community is cringing on the side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: I see the GFS pushed the Saturday precip to Sunday. Still a chance for some snow Sunday afternoon for those N&W Much better surface temps this run as well. Although that is a long ways out to worry about at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Much better surface temps this run as well. Although that is a long ways out to worry about at this point. yeah its a smidge better for sure. i think many would just be happy to see snow even if it amounts to a slushy inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Nice slug of rain for Sunday per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nice slug of rain for Sunday per GFS. Hey I get 6 minutes of snow before the rain up here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Hey I get 6 minutes of snow before the rain up here! I hate this hobby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFs h5 is interesting at 162. If that southern birth was just a bit slower or that northern one was digging faster souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, mappy said: yeah its a smidge better for sure. i think many would just be happy to see snow even if it amounts to a slushy inch. Given that I have literally seen two minutes of flurries - TOTAL - so far - that would indeed be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Gfs diving phasing TPV piece down SE, this is good headed into the LR event could help form 50/50 for our hopeful event (one crashing into Cali in this image). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Meh. Selfishly don’t care about the 14th event since I’ll be gone. But I’ll be rooting for y’all. First wave i was into May form a decent 50/50 for second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS and GGEM both give some slushy accumulation north of DC over the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Feels like the GFS is smokin' somethin' with the evolution of that 11th wave, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Feels like the GFS is smokin' somethin' with the evolution of that 11th wave, lol turns into a 40/40 low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: turns into a 40/40 low And it left the other 20 out in the modelsphere somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Asking for a friend. Jaws music can’t be appropriate for a 180+ event. Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM both give some slushy accumulation north of DC over the weekend. The late Sunday into Monday wave has some potential for a little frozen for the northern edge of our region. A little adjustment in that NS vorticity sliding across Hudson Bay and this could be a little colder/further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Asking for a friend. Jaws music can’t be appropriate for a 180+ event. Right? Nah...I feel like 168 (7 days) oughta be the jaws Benchmark...Buuuut benchmarks can be stretched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Asking for a friend. Jaws music can’t be appropriate for a 180+ event. Right? nope. Barney and Friends perhaps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS seems completely on an island with the evolution early next week, and we’ve seen how that’s gone for the gfs so far this season. But GGEM also has a potent northern stream shortwave bring in a legit respectable airmass ahead of anything late next week. But that squashes everything. Definitely a lot going on…hopefully we can get something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: nope. Barney and Friends perhaps 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah...I feel like 168 (7 days) oughta be the jaws Benchmark...Buuuut benchmarks can be stretched... moot now. Looks like I’m safe. GFS is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: turns into a 40/40 low Getting a useful 50-50 low in a progressive pattern is a bit of a crapshoot. Not the same has having a low there stuck under a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS seems completely on an island with the evolution early next week, and we’ve seen how that’s gone for the gfs so far this season. But GGEM also has a potent northern stream shortwave bring in a legit respectable airmass ahead of anything late next week. But that squashes everything. Definitely a lot going on…hopefully we can get something. A solution like CMC showed would be a total troll event of the year...All warm, then finally cold but...SQUASH (oh and snow for the south too!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: moot now. Looks like I’m safe. GFS is a mess hr 240 gives EGC/ORF measurable snow before us...file that one under GFS spits out a totally believable scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: hr 240 gives EGC/ORF measurable snow before us...file that one under GFS spits out a totally believable scenario See my post ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 36 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Given that I have literally seen two minutes of flurries - TOTAL - so far - that would indeed be nice. ha, agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now