Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 anyone read Mark Margarabge on Twitter? Zero chance that guy is a real met..or even a fake one 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, there’s legit arctic flow here. would get everyone cold quickly. this is a great pattern verbatim It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^I can see what you are looking at... a path looking at hr 342 on GEFS. all of the sudden Canada is quite cold and the red had fled. step one I suppose The most important step imo. I wouldn't bother looking beyond the cold air establishing tbh. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick. Agreed. This one doesn't look like a head fake. Funny thing is the ens lost it for a few days in unison. Then brought it back essentially the same time period. Funny how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. This one doesn't look like a head fake. Funny thing is the ens lost it for a few days in unison. Then brought it back essentially the same time period. Funny how that works. any though about how long this could last? A few days? A week...gonna lock in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: any though about how long this could last? A few days? A week...gonna lock in? It could last until 0z 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, RedSky said: It could last until 0z Don't even 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Its all head fakes outside day 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Its all head fakes outside day 5 I'd imagine that applies most to specific threats as opposed to just trying to figure out temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, H2O said: Its all head fakes unless it’s actually snowing Fixed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'd imagine that applies most to specific threats as opposed to just trying to figure out temperature. I mean, he's not wrong either....tho the longwave pattern from day 7-12 looks essentially the same on all ens, so the progression probably has legs this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 What a clown! This dude is rooting against El Nino and he is supposed to love snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I know we clown on JB, but he said he thinks this is a classic January thaw and it flips to cold and rolls right into the spring. Grain of salt obviously with that guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know we clown on JB, but he said he thinks this is a classic January thaw and it flips to cold and rolls right into the spring. Grain of salt obviously with that guy. JB’s brain is completely addled. But if we flip to a cold pattern around the 20-25th and maintain a cooler than normal pattern through much of February on balance, that will be a more Nino-like cycle. I think this winter has behaved more Nino-like than Niña-like so far for whatever reason. California waves hello…Nino’s have colder February’s and Nina’s have warm Februarys. So what will this year bring? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Instead of posting the 1000th 500MB that shows how great it will be in two weeks, I am trying a new approach, my new snow charm arrived today… 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know we clown on JB, but he said he thinks this is a classic January thaw and it flips to cold and rolls right into the spring. Grain of salt obviously with that guy. Well great. February torch it is then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Well great. February torch it is then. Saves on heating bill 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So what will this year bring? More heartache I suppose? In all seriousness with the base state the way it is I am not so sure Nino's will be a good thing for us anymore either. Especially if we dont have any blocking to get the polar jet bent down into the conus. But for sure Nina's have sucked. So who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: More heartache I suppose? In all seriousness with the base state the way it is I am not so sure Nino's will be a good thing for us anymore either. Especially if we dont have any blocking to get the polar jet bent down into the conus. But for sure Nina's have sucked. So who knows at this point. Snow is always an IMBY game of course, but I’ve been satisfied personally the last 2 Niña years (20-21 and 21-22) and our last Nino year (18-19). The disaster year (19-20) was ENSO neutral. No can kick either on todays 12z EPS. Good agreement with GEFS on longwave pattern and timing. Ridge out west goes up on the 20th-21st. So now we wait and see how real it is and how quickly we can cool down and have a storm chance. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman…with a PNA/EPO ridge unconnected to the ridging over the Atlantic side across Canada and a piece of the PV in between, central Canada cools down in only 48 hours after the ridge goes up. It’s a legit fantastic look. But we’ve seen this headfake before. Not saying things won’t improve but recently it doesnt last long before another pacific onslaught. I’ll be more optimistic if this holds inside day 10 and we still can’t see the end. 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Good thing is that the upslope looks to crank after our cutter this weekend! Taking the kids to snowshoe this weekend. If things still look good even we get back I’ll jump all in. 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It’s a cold look for sure and finally the 2m temp plots start to reflect that. Reminds me of 13-14 with a -AO/-EPO/+PNA/and a WAR. The western ridge starts to pop around hr240-264, so getting pretty close to a time range with good ensemble skill. No sign of a can kick. It’s not talked about enough that the blocking up top contributed to that season. The pac was great but to overcome the WAR it helped that we also had a -AO much of the time. If you have a perfect epo pna and some high lat ridging then some war can even help. Different equations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a legit fantastic look. But we’ve seen this headfake before. Not saying things won’t improve but recently it doesnt last long before another pacific onslaught. I’ll be more optimistic if this holds inside day 10 and we still can’t see the end. reminds me of 90% of our snowstorms. Before the first flake falls...we can already see the backedge rolling through 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ji said: reminds me of 90% of our snowstorms. Before the first flake falls...we can already see the backedge rolling through Weather happens quick. A microcosm of life. If you wanna slow things down and savor it a bit, maybe try a little weed. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: JB’s brain is completely addled. But if we flip to a cold pattern around the 20-25th and maintain a cooler than normal pattern through much of February on balance, that will be a more Nino-like cycle. I think this winter has behaved more Nino-like than Niña-like so far for whatever reason. California waves hello…Nino’s have colder February’s and Nina’s have warm Februarys. So what will this year bring? Not sure if it was posted as I have been a tad busy, but this is yesterday's Euro weeklies into early Feb. Looks good well into the month fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure if it was posted as I have been a tad busy, but this is yesterday's Euro weeklies into early Feb. Looks good well into the month fwiw. Would you be worried about the WAR ruining our temps and pushing the baroclinic zone too far inland with the trough in that position? Seems like an issue we've had a few times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSG said: Would you be worried about the WAR ruining our temps and pushing the baroclinic zone too far inland with the trough in that position? Seems like an issue we've had a few times this year. We had a decaying east coast ridge with flat ridging located not far off the coast when the early Jan 22 storm hit. Not much of an issue if we have some legit cold pressing in from the NW. That would tend to keep the thermal boundary suppressed further SE. Difficult to glean such details off of an h5 mean from an extended product. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Never seen a winter with so many long duration shutout windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Never seen a winter with so many long duration shutout windowsDec 1 to dec 15. Dec 22 to Jan 10. Jan 10 to Jan 25... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I heard the late 70s and early 80s were bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 we have yet to see a threat survive the 144-168 hour mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 we have yet to see two models agree on a snowstorm for us closer than 192-204 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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