Interstate Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I guess the 18z Euro was junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Interstate said: I guess the 18z Euro was junk It only goes to H90. EPS goes out to 144 and its rolling out now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: It only goes to H90. EPS goes out to 144 and its rolling out now. At hour 90 we should be able to see if the h5 is looking solid. In the GFS hour 90 the positive titled front was through the area already. Does it look like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It’s cold right now. 34 dropping to 28 tonight here. Just can’t get precip plus cold. Your average low right now is about 20*. Ya I know that sounds crazy because it’s been forever since that was a typical night in winter but that’s about the 30 year mean for stations in the Shenandoah Valley area. In past periods it used to even be in the high teens this week! Even IAD avg low is 25! Don’t worry, it won’t be for long if this keeps up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 At hour 90 we should be able to see if the h5 is looking solid. In the GFS hour 90 the positive titled front was through the area already. Does it look like the GFS? Looks better than gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: At hour 90 we should be able to see if the h5 is looking solid. In the GFS hour 90 the positive titled front was through the area already. Does it look like the GFS? I think it’s worse than 12z. Not Gfs worse but it’s hard to say. It could also just be slower. Maybe. It’s still diving energy in behind but it’s either slower or not digging as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Control settles it. Secondary gets going just in time scrape eastern New England. What we should expect from a NS miller b secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Control settles it. Secondary gets going just in time scrape eastern New England. What we should expect from a NS miller b secondary What can you do. Still couple days to nail down the particulars. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: What can you do. Still couple days to nail down the particulars. Anyone who expects snow from this setup has serious issues. This is like buying a 20$ scratch off. You dont expect to win the 10,000 dollars. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 DT (WxRisk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) Meh, wake me up when it's a full on ALEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone who expects snow from this setup has serious issues. This is like buying a 20$ scratch off. You dont expect to win the 10,000 dollars. I was wondering why some in here are still trackin' this thing...lol I mean Friday's runs told the story and I was out then! Better to track a pattern change if we can get it later this month as some Twitter met seem to think is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Your average low right now is about 20*. Ya I know that sounds crazy because it’s been forever since that was a typical night in winter but that’s about the 30 year mean for stations in the Shenandoah Valley area. In past periods it used to even be in the high teens this week! Even IAD avg low is 25! Don’t worry, it won’t be for long if this keeps up. Tonight is a low of 22. Plenty of cold but no precip. Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again. Cold isn’t my problem at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Your average low right now is about 20*. Ya I know that sounds crazy because it’s been forever since that was a typical night in winter but that’s about the 30 year mean for stations in the Shenandoah Valley area. In past periods it used to even be in the high teens this week! Even IAD avg low is 25! Don’t worry, it won’t be for long if this keeps up. lol and the urban core is 38-41F at 10pm in mid January. It's just not what it was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Tonight is a low of 22. Plenty of cold but no precip. Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again. Cold isn’t my problem at the moment. 20-30 years ago, nighttime temps in the teens were routine there. Now with a pretty good airmass in mid Jan and optimal cooling conditions, you're stuck in the 20s. That translates for the urban areas that used to get into the 20s now stuck above freezing even overnight. It's a major problem (if you like snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 It's even more pronounced for cities closer to the coast. I feel like NYC has barely gotten below freezing at all this season (aside from the brief Christmas cold snap). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 41 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Tonight is a low of 22. Plenty of cold but no precip. Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again. Cold isn’t my problem at the moment. Radiational cooling conditions are decent tonight. It's just fake (i.e., low level) cold. Check a sounding. The airmass is warm for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 46 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Tonight is a low of 22. Plenty of cold but no precip. Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again. Cold isn’t my problem at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing is trending towards a colder solution. They are actually all trending even warmer still. This is the storm we were tracking 72 hours ago on that CMC run The primary system is toast. Gone. Forget it. Its going to cut. What guidance is trending towards now is the idea that a secondary piece of energy is going to dive in the back side and develop a new low along the coast after the front from the original system catches up...which would open the door some to a crazy scenario where the mid atlantic COULD get snow if everything went absolutely perfectly. Yea I know that is not how we normally roll but once in a blue moon something like that can happen and why not end this streak that way. But to say its trending colder is a gross misrepresentation of the situation. Not trending colder per say. Clearly the initial phase and SLP track into Ontario has trended sharper with a quicker scouring of antecedent cold. But one thing that's changed from 3+ days ago is that there's a fresh cold air source to the west that isn't being immediately pushed out by the next wave. Days ago a modeled negatively tilted ULL was pinching off and being separated from the longwave flow, resulting in a complete emptying of subfreezing surface temps east of the Mississippi. With CAA behind the "front," at least there's a longshot chance of developing a new SLP on what's left of the baroclinic zone that could potentially produce snow somewhere along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 20-30 years ago, nighttime temps in the teens were routine there. Now with a pretty good airmass in mid Jan and optimal cooling conditions, you're stuck in the 20s. That translates for the urban areas that used to get into the 20s now stuck above freezing even overnight. It's a major problem (if you like snow). Okay, mansplain my climo for me. We were 0 to 10 degrees recently for 3 nights in a row, with wind chills in the -20s and -30s. Where were you all with ‘20-30 years ago, it was in the 30s-40s this time of year’ ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Your average low right now is about 20*. Ya I know that sounds crazy because it’s been forever since that was a typical night in winter but that’s about the 30 year mean for stations in the Shenandoah Valley area. In past periods it used to even be in the high teens this week! Even IAD avg low is 25! Don’t worry, it won’t be for long if this keeps up. ‘Shenandoah Valley Area’ is a large area to generalize. I live at 1550’ nnw of Staunton and we have had many nights below average temps this year. It has been plenty cold, just no precip to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 ^ Hard to get substantial snowfall with sustained like warmth like we've seen so far this month. Moderately AN is one thing, but +10-15F seems more akin to November climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Okay, mansplain my climo for me. We were 0 to 10 degrees recently for 3 nights in a row, with wind chills in the -20s and -30s. Where were you all with ‘20-30 years ago, it was in the 30s-40s this time of year’ ?? lol I lived in Staunton from 1991-2002 (and then 4 years in C'ville after that) and my parents still live there, but ok. In 1994 we got down to -15F in town, on a day that only barely got above zero. 1996 had a similar cold snap. Night time temps in the teens were common from Dec - late Feb. Even this year's Christmas cold snap would've yielded below-zero temps in town years ago - instead it was right around zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: lol I lived in Staunton from 1991-2002 (and then 4 years in C'ville after that), but ok. In 1994 we got down to -15F in town, on a day that only barely got above zero. 1996 had a similar cold snap. Night time temps in the teens were common from Dec - late Feb. Even this year's Christmas cold snap would've yielded below-zero temps in town years ago - instead it was right around zero. Yeah, we got to -15 two or three years ago. Haven’t noticed any immediate warming trend. Been in this area longer than you. 1993 to present. Not sure how to respond to how you know that this year’s cold snap would have been below zero years ago, but instead was right around zero. Those are some serious skills you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 are we going to have to have this same argument on EVERY page of this thread? Fringe, ffs, stop this crap. Take it elsewhere. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Okay, we can go back to hearing from preferred posters why it can’t snow in the MA after it just did. My bad. I will stop being so optimistic for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 No one on the east coast gets snow on this GFS run. It is a frontal passage for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 lol and the urban core is 38-41F at 10pm in mid January. It's just not what it was..... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just rain storm after rain storm from DC to Caribou Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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