Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This isn’t a simple synoptic setup. Placing the banding with a developing secondary dealing with multiple pieces of energy in close proximity is tricky. The kind of thing models would have missed completely 20 years ago. The highest resolution and best physics has the best chance to possible see it and that’s the opp. Bottom Line: don't get your hopes up, kids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: This is the most insane clown map I’ve ever seen lmao. Clearly a stalled CCB band . For gods sake CMC just give me this one win…damn it to hell…throw me a frickin bone 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 For gods sake CMC just give me this one win…damn it to hell…throw me a frickin boneWas that the OP?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: Was that the OP? . Yeah…kinda sorta feel like this GFS run would show some thing if this is even maybe a chance at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 horrible gfs run...went the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: horrible gfs run...went the other way Back to our regularly scheduled program 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: horrible gfs run...went the other way GFS is absolutely terrible right now. Not sure what model to trust, but it is not the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 gfs vs euro/cmc/icon, gfs always wins in these battles ofc! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: gfs vs euro/cmc/icon, gfs always wins in these battles ofc! Until they all move to the GFS. Remember, whatever model gives you the least amount of snow, it is usually right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: gfs vs euro/cmc/icon, gfs always wins in these battles ofc! Didn't even notice we picked up the ICON... I'll take it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS is absolutely terrible right now. Not sure what model to trust, but it is not the GFS any model not showing us snow is not to be believed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Until they all move to the GFS. Remember, whatever model gives you the least amount of snow, it is usually right. Was just going to post, that, but you saved me the trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Remember, the most likely outcome is rain then fropa. Until at least 3 models show something different for 3 consecutive runs, then maybe... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS is absolutely terrible right now. Not sure what model to trust, but it is not the GFS I've never seen the GFS so bad. Every run the last few days is something totally different. What a mess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: I've never seen the GFS so bad. Every run the last few days is something totally different. What a mess. During event it will be correct 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I've never seen the GFS so bad. Every run the last few days is something totally different. What a mess. Agreed. I know it’s been said before I’m here but it feels like it was more accurate before all the “upgrades”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Sigh 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The GFS should not be posted, unless we are within two days of the event, just my humble opinion. It is that bad right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Sigh Unfortunately how it gets there is believable. The better look out west only lasts 3 days, not long enough to do anything, then the pac attacks again and it’s right back to square one. Not saying I believe the Gfs but that’s been the status quo for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I thought last winter was somewhat underwhelming in Frederick, but it's really looking like a true winter in comparison to this season so far. There is literally nothing to track on the GFS. Even the upcoming system is looking like a pedestrian frontal passage with needed, but not excessive rain. We're getting La Nina'd. It's as simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 How do we have 56 pages in this thread with nothing really to track. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: I thought last winter was somewhat underwhelming in Frederick, but it's really looking like a true winter in comparison to this season so far. There is literally nothing to track on the GFS. Even the upcoming system is looking like a pedestrian frontal passage with needed, but not excessive rain. We're getting La Nina'd. It's as simple as that. CA is getting nino’ed…it’s Thunderdome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ji said: Sigh go to Wyoming, looks blue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: CA is getting nino’ed…it’s Thunderdome! Two subs enter, one sub leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: CA is getting nino’ed…it’s Thunderdome! Yea, they're getting the action for now, but we're still cutter city. Just can't seem to get an ideal upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: How do we have 56 pages in this thread with nothing really to track. We had something to track 6 hours ago. And now? Poof. Such is winter in the Mid Atlantic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I hate to post another long range ensemble map but to counter some of the 300 hour + long range OP maps being posted this look on the GEFS should get us cold enough to snow if this look is correct. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I hate to post another long range ensemble map but to counter some of the 300 hour + long range OP maps being posted this look on the GEFS should get us cold enough to snow if this look is correct. Thanks. I wasn’t sure why we were analyzing 300 hour OP maps, honestly. It can’t be THAT dire, yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Thanks. I wasn’t sure why we were analyzing 300 hour OP maps, honestly. It can’t be THAT dire, yet. Well if we gotta watch to see when cold can get back here...300 hrs is where it's at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 It’s cold right now. 34 dropping to 28 tonight here. Just can’t get precip plus cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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