blizzardmeiser Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Makes perfect sense. Slam dunk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro! I almost choked on my food 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The last time we had a winter tropical storm transfer it's energy to a runner was..........? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 39 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It just happened 12 months ago. I jumped then but landed softly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, windycutter said: Primary bringing too much warmth. I was thinking that but wasn’t sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 GEPS looks solid again, Looks like we’re probably gonna get a nice ridge for once, question is how long will it last…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I jumped then but landed softly No Reaper to pronounce your winter weenie dead. You hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has a 4 county wide blizzard and gfs has a January hurricane. Your move, euro! If it's going to be fall in January, we might as well call back the NHC to issue advisories on Hurricane Arlene as it rapidly intensifies into a Cat 4...and runs up the Bay. Do those bring snow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: GEPS looks solid again, Looks like we’re probably gonna get a nice ridge for once, question is how long will it last… . until the SE ridge takes control for the last 3 weeks of Feb lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 40 minutes ago, mattie g said: The strange thing about that GFS run is that the low off the Carolinas has just retrograded like 750 miles from southeast of Bermuda to where it is in that panel due to - and then gets stuck under - that massive Quebec block (for lack of a better term). Yeah, strange. I saw that, and decided it was kooky enough of a solution to ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing is trending towards a colder solution. They are actually all trending even warmer still. This is the storm we were tracking 72 hours ago on that CMC run The primary system is toast. Gone. Forget it. Its going to cut. What guidance is trending towards now is the idea that a secondary piece of energy is going to dive in the back side and develop a new low along the coast after the front from the original system catches up...which would open the door some to a crazy scenario where the mid atlantic COULD get snow if everything went absolutely perfectly. Yea I know that is not how we normally roll but once in a blue moon something like that can happen and why not end this streak that way. But to say its trending colder is a gross misrepresentation of the situation. I appreciate you taking the time to respond but I did not say models were trending colder, I said they would correct to a colder solution. The initial piece of energy will cut west but how strong it gets and how much warmth it takes with it is still very much in question. I didn't misrepresent anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No Reaper to pronounce your winter weenie dead. You hate to see it. My winter weenie isn’t dead C’mon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: My winter weenie isn’t dead Yes, you said as much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 not smart enough to know where this will go yet but I think step(s) have been made in the right direction. Apologies if I'm wrong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not smart enough to know where this will go yet but I think step(s) have been made in the right direction. Apologies if I'm wrong ive seen worse 500mb maps 100 hours plus out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 @psuhoffman…12z GEFS says 3-4 days to flush PAC puke out of central Canada and replace it with BN temps after the PNA/EPO ridge pops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 nice shift on the ECMWF... weaker primary with a faster transfer this is a sick mid level look too. you can do muchhhhh worse 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 I've been wondering for the past several days why a there wasn't a second closed h5 low forming with the amped up troff along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 #winning -- HR 132 looks even better 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 This scenario: cutter followed by northern stream Miller B is obviously a low-likelihood chance for us and nailing where any snow band forms will be a very dicey prospect…but a 10% chance is a helluva lot better than the 0% we had. And it’s only 4-5 days out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: #winning -- HR 132 looks even better Looks exactly like I thought it would here 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 #winning -- HR 132 looks even betterThis may be our best chance. To fluke into something like this. At least we have a trackable event instead of 2 week shut the blinds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Every imaginable caveat applies -- but just for fun here's the Kuchera. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: This scenario: cutter followed by northern stream Miller B is obviously a low-likelihood chance for us and nailing where any snow band forms will be a very dicey prospect…but a 10% chance is a helluva lot better than the 0% we had. And it’s only 4-5 days out. I will take my chances with a 500mb pass like that. that's sick 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman…12z GEFS says 3-4 days to flush PAC puke out of central Canada and replace it with BN temps after the PNA/EPO ridge pops. That look day 15 isn't just ok its REALLY good...the kind of good we should still be able to win with even if our climo fears are true. If not...well then its really close the blinds forever time. The question isn't would that work...IMO its 1)is that real 2)how long does it last knowing even in a good pattern it usually takes us more than one opportunity with a wave to get a hit 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Every imaginable caveat applies -- but just for fun here's the Kuchera. I will take my .3 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: worth noting major slp differences in SE canada from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I will take my chances with a 500mb pass like that. that's sick Oh yeah it’s beautiful. Areas north of Philly or even north of NYC obviously have a lot more wiggle room than us. Miller Bs suck for us usually because they form too far north. You can see on the euro that even with a low popping off Hatteras it takes time for it to develop a CCB precip shield and we get wraparound snow only. 50mi north shift there and it’s congrats Philly. 150mi and congrats Poconos or Catskills. Still…way better than no chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: I was thinking the same! Jan 3rd painful whiff Another repeat would be so bitter up in northern maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I will take my chances with a 500mb pass like that. that's sick How you get to that look is important too though. A NS wave diving in from the NW to that location is a LOT different than something coming at us from the TN valley. I would be a LOT more excited if I lived in Philly or NYC with this kind of setup. It's going to be really difficult for that kind of setup to come together in time to really significantly impact the DC area. It's possible...the CMC showed how, but history suggests this is way more likely to work out further NE of us. Just beware of objects that might start coming at your head in here if this does evolve into a canonical miller b NYC hit DC screwjob. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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