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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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29 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I hope it wasn't 2002-03 (though I think even they got a legit storm in mid January 03).

Actually 2002 - 2003 was really "good" by NC standards, at least where I was in the Triad.  Several minor events and persistent cold.  One of my favorites.  2001 - 2002 was awful on the other hand.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Actually 2002 - 2003 was really "good" by NC standards, at least where I was in the Triad.  Several minor events and persistent cold.  One of my favorites.  2001 - 2002 was awful on the other hand.

Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought 2001-02 was a really good winter in NC, especially because of a major storm in early January. I think Raleigh got like 10".

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41 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Actually 2002 - 2003 was really "good" by NC standards, at least where I was in the Triad.  Several minor events and persistent cold.  One of my favorites.  2001 - 2002 was awful on the other hand.

I was living in Hickory, NC at the time and remember a very nice storm that dropped around a foot sometime in Jan/Feb, plus we had several nice ice storms.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I was mostly at Greenville but spent a  week at Asheville and a week at Boone. 

As you can see from my profile I live in Wilson which is just 45 minutes or so west of Greeneville.  Our snow climatology could best be described as: "We see flakes 2 out of 3 years, and that ain't bad!".  Oddly enough I haven't been fully shut-out (no flakes at all) since I have been here.  Closet I came was in 2011-12 but I did see a few sleet pellets' that year.  I'm afraid this year might be the year.  

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Just now, Wxdavis5784 said:

I was living in Hickory, NC at the time and remember a very nice storm that dropped around a foot sometime in Jan/Feb, plus we had several nice ice storms.

That was probably the same January 2-3 even I mentioned that did well at RDU.  I had almost completely forgotten about that storm and my memories of 2001 -2002 were negative based on the overall warmth.

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54 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think at some point the west will get a dry spell, and that will be our chance for some type of event. Because until there's a ridge out west, I'm not holding any hope for this area. Probably after Jan 20.

Kinda feel like IF we're gonna get anything at all this month, that would be around the time something would pop up in the LR for the following weekend...lol

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53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The only positive from the MLK weekend storm is the potential for upslope for the mountains/ski resorts which really need the snow (especially after yet another cutter). 

Yup temps stay reasonable, not a deluge of rain, and temps crash as the front comes through. Hopefully a couple inches of natural plus excellent snowmaking for a couple days.

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6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow just took a look at the EPS and GEFS.  Both are warm warm warm warm all the way through the ends of the runs.  Oh well.

even with a really good h5 look...at hour 342 on GEFS (23 Jan)....its still a crock pot in the east.  although I have to wonder if that might looked more muted on future runs if the h5 look holds...just a thought...if not we are cinnamon toast. 

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If the advertised h5 pattern is real the direct blast from the Pac firehose will be cut off and temps will cool. EPS has normal to slightly below temps reaching our region beyond the 20th. GEFS has our source region cooling significantly from what it is this week. CMC ens has an even colder look as usual.

1674561600-lCAm45rvcqA.png

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there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario

the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant

ezgif-1-3c42dac130.thumb.gif.6a7850445f334152631032a2a9f1deb4.gif

the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-1673222400-1673546400-1673805600-40.thumb.gif.a7e1a62e1a4a95fc0eb8f36639b505fc.gif

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