WinterFire Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You mean the "atmospheric river"? That is what the media has dubbed the stj aimed at CA. Bomb cyclones, atmospheric rivers, polar vortex mania....no wonder people don't want to watch the mews anymore. The term atmospheric river was coined by Zhu and Newell at MIT in 1998: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/126/3/1520-0493_1998_126_0725_apafmf_2.0.co_2.xml The polar vortex and bomb cyclones have been discussed in academic contexts for decades. Just because something is new to you doesn’t mean it’s new, and the media using correct terminology in public communication is a good thing even when these terms are unfamiliar to you. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I know, I know...I'm bit movie illiterate, haha To give you an idea of how bad it is...I only just watched "It's A Wonderful Life" for the first time last week...lol I'm workin' on it! First time watching RoadHouse yesterday. ”Pain don’t hurt” is an all time quote. That and “I f*cked guys like you in prison” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That’s the bar now? Rooting for a repeat of 2002. Lol We had temps in the 80s in January (in the Shenandoah Valley) that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Crazy what a hit the cryosphere has taken in North America. Was at the highs in early November, but in the last couple weeks falling off a cliff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 First one gets shredded. Second one is too warm 3rd is a bomb that misses us but crushes the Northeast. Sound about right?Almost...the one that crushes the northeast also hits va Beach/tidewater 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: What old movie/show is that? Lol 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic. “Round up the usual suspects!” Awesome movie. I’ll watch Saturday evening between my walks in the wet flakes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The overall pattern for 11th and 15th windows look good with east-based +PNA over central US building because of troughs in the Pacific and lots of Canadian ridging, which is also supported by NPJ being in a more favorable position(one worry is that guidance extends the jet again which would push it OTS though) and MJO progressing into phase 8. The main issue isn't the pattern but the airmass(cold air supply). Imo 15th event is best chance we've had so far this year based on upper-air pattern and the strong signal on the ensembles as well as the MJO supporting it. If we can get a strong banana high over Canada and the SLP takes a good track cold air wouldn't be as much of a worry. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: What old movie/show is that? Lol 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know your younger but really? Eta: Casablanca...Bogey....a classic. I was just going to say... Surely everyone would recognize Bogey and Casablanca! Now... Get off my lawn you youngsters while I go watch some silent movies! ETA... Bit of trivia. Bogey's character Rick never actually says the phrase, "Play it again, Sam!" He does say, "Play it Sam, play it again! If you can play it for her, you can play it for me!" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I was just going to say... Surely everyone would recognize Bogey and Casablanca! Now... Get off my lawn you youngsters while I go watch some silent movies! ETA... Bit of trivia. Bogey's character Rick never actually says the phrase, "Play it again, Sam!" He does say, "Play it Sam, play it again! If you can play it for her, you can play it for me!" Ya know who first told me about that misnomer? My first Music Theory teacher, lol (now I know what movie he was referring to!) Hey don't forget your ragtime/stride music with that silent movie (actually currently working on a ragtime piece, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Hey look! The record for this date at BWI was 68 in 2000...And we hit 69 today, lol But of course later that month...a footer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Gfs already caved to the euro....someone pull the plug on that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs already caved to the euro....someone pull the plug on that model Took away our blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Took away our blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I like what the cmc is cooking up for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The GFS is getting uglier and uglier for California every run. They're going to have major flooding problems if it verifies. It's showing over 30" liquid in the northern mountains through 270hrs on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The GFS is getting uglier and uglier for California every run. They're going to have major flooding problems if it verifies. It's showing over 30" liquid in the northern mountains through 270hrs on this run. You’re always such a ray of sunshine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re always such a ray of sunshine Says the recent doom logger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re always such a ray of sunshine 985mb shallow warm core mesocane goes right over San Fran at 264hrs That's the most entertaining part of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GEM giving us something to watch. GFS looks like a wet fart. Might be a good thing in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Chris78 said: Took away our blues Both snow and temps. Barely any below freezing nights past mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS…there are both torch and colder members at mid month. My guess is we see whether the MJO actually goes into phases 8-1 or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS doesn’t know what it wants to do with this weekend disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 WB 6Z GFS really still figuring things out at Day 7….current and last several runs for same time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The fast, rather zonal flow tends to produce weak waves with little chance for surface development, so the chances of seeing anything of significance over the weekend looks pretty low. The wave for early next week looks to have a bit more potential across guidance(esp the CMC op). Temperature issues ofc. Late next week into the weekend continues to look like the best window for a combination of a stronger event with some decent cold- the signal for frozen precip on the ens means is clearly the highest during that period. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Latest GEFSX indicates that the persistent trough off the west coast will shift eastward with a ridge building in the PNA/EPO space for late Jan. There are hints of that at the end of the latest GEFS runs. Perhaps an indication of the MJO forcing shifting into the western Pac, with some modulation of the Pacific jet. The general HL look is also better, with hints of a -NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The fast, rather zonal flow tends to produce weak waves with little chance for surface development, so the chances of seeing anything of significance over the weekend looks pretty low. The wave for early next week looks to have a bit more potential across guidance(esp the CMC op). Temperature issues ofc. Late next week into the weekend continues to look like the best window for a combination of a stronger event with some decent cold- the signal for frozen precip on the ens means is clearly the highest during that period. Is the late next week deal the first time the EPS has shown something trackable this winter? I just may not have been paying attention but it seems to be. A good cluster of LPs off the NC coast but the trough is still positively tilted so the mean is a bit more offshore than we’d like. But a signal for a coastal low and this far out, all we can ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFSX indicates that the persistent trough off the west coast will shift eastward with a ridge building in the PNA/EPO space for late Jan. There are hints of that at the end of the latest GEFS runs. Perhaps an indication of the MJO forcing shifting into the western Pac, with some modulation of the Pacific jet. The general HL look is also better, with hints of a -NAO. That’s a preferred look IMO. A broad trough as opposed to a sharp one. Different ways to score. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Is the late next week deal the first time the EPS has shown something trackable this winter? I just may not have been paying attention but it seems to be. A good cluster of LPs off the NC coast but the trough is still positively tilted so the mean is a bit more offshore than we’d like. But a signal for a coastal low and this far out, all we can ask for. Not sure on that, but it has been pretty consistent with a signal around mid month, as has the GEFS. The mean low position is a tad offshore which is pretty typical in a progressive pattern. The exact position/amplitude of the western ridge as it shifts east will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFSX indicates that the persistent trough off the west coast will shift eastward with a ridge building in the PNA/EPO space for late Jan. There are hints of that at the end of the latest GEFS runs. Perhaps an indication of the MJO forcing shifting into the western Pac, with some modulation of the Pacific jet. The general HL look is also better, with hints of a -NAO. Despite a trough in the west, that’s actually a colder look I’ve seen in a while. Worth noting that trough entering the aleutians with a poleward alaskan ridge beginning to pop. Previous runs were mostly zonal flow right from the pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a preferred look IMO. A broad trough as opposed to a sharp one. Different ways to score. Agree. That is an active look verbatim, and even better if we get a little help in the NAO domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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