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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

This is just a really bad winter in the East. But it's been a great winter out west, with storm after storm burying the Rockies and the Sierra. Many, if not most of our great winters happen at their expense, where they have a massive ridge and end up snow-starved, so it seems this is one of those years where it is the other way around.

Yep, and they need it. Badly. 

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13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looking at the 12Z models for late week….still a cold air issue, but ICON shifted SE with track compared to 0Z.

C12D0016-72A4-4C6A-A073-4F07FB1DFC4C.png

97CA2213-815C-41ED-AFB2-CFC22C0D346E.png

That's most likely due to the progressive flow this is more east than it is south.  The storm is being shewed along quicker.  The main issue as you said is lack of cold that's the title of this winter "Lack of Cold, Except 5 days"

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Decided to really drill down into the stats/trends of IAD snowfall. I'm sure it's nothing new, but the median really drives home the point that we no longer "average" 20 inches a season. It's more like 14-15 now, and that's with the big snow years thrown in. Take those away, we're at more like 8-12" median... and the downtrend is so striking compared to the "average" skewed by the occasional big dog. 

And this year we may not even get to the median! 

1839173269_Screenshot2023-01-08at11_47_56AM.png.8e61b050e2c2910207b33172e13dad4d.png913964601_Screenshot2023-01-08at11_48_02AM.png.fd080144bdba7bba0d82daf5ded94576.png

 

Excuse the ugly charts, but this shows the average 20" snowfall year is increasingly out of reach. 

And we're talking IAD numbers. I haven't even bothered to look at DCA.

*Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

One glimmer of hope in 12Z GFS fantasy range is that central and eastern Canada much colder after Day 10 this run.  That is the thing to track over the next 10 days…how quickly we can get cold enough air back into the east.

F0E1EAC8-469C-45D6-9DEA-EB08319D38A3.png

If cold is going to rebuild quickly up top, this is peak climo for that to happen, so we do have that on our side.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CFS is all aboard for first half of Feb at the very least....probably overloads us with extreme cold and dry again but it relaxes towards the middle of the month.....just in time for PD4....calling it now:cfs-avg_T2maMean_nhem_5.thumb.png.f4e2f37b14dcad2ca7d56c0ff476f2a2.pngcfs-avg_T2maMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.5471035b6c04882be14a00e3a6424e70.png

Monthly (Feb):cfs-mon_01_T2ma_nhem_1.thumb.png.7ae1d669e67b09676eb6be242851b54d.png

So now we're punting to mid February? :lol:

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40 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been

honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first

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11 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first

That's what I've been saying. Every day that passes, BWI gets a little closer to setting the all time record!

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