Terpeast Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: This is just a really bad winter in the East. But it's been a great winter out west, with storm after storm burying the Rockies and the Sierra. Many, if not most of our great winters happen at their expense, where they have a massive ridge and end up snow-starved, so it seems this is one of those years where it is the other way around. Yep, and they need it. Badly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looking at the 12Z models for late week….still a cold air issue, but ICON shifted SE with track compared to 0Z. That's most likely due to the progressive flow this is more east than it is south. The storm is being shewed along quicker. The main issue as you said is lack of cold that's the title of this winter "Lack of Cold, Except 5 days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 WB 12Z GFS….primary dies in N. Ohio, and primary coastal pops too little too late for our latitude due to lack of cold air etc… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Basically a frontal passage for MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Basically a frontal passage for MA. Yup, 599 pages of analysis for a cold front…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yup, 599 pages of analysis for a cold front…. One of the few hobbies that improving your skills doesn’t improve the result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Decided to really drill down into the stats/trends of IAD snowfall. I'm sure it's nothing new, but the median really drives home the point that we no longer "average" 20 inches a season. It's more like 14-15 now, and that's with the big snow years thrown in. Take those away, we're at more like 8-12" median... and the downtrend is so striking compared to the "average" skewed by the occasional big dog. And this year we may not even get to the median! Excuse the ugly charts, but this shows the average 20" snowfall year is increasingly out of reach. And we're talking IAD numbers. I haven't even bothered to look at DCA. *Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 One glimmer of hope in 12Z GFS fantasy range is that central and eastern Canada much colder after Day 10 this run. That is the thing to track over the next 10 days…how quickly we can get cold enough air back into the east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 50 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Basically a frontal passage for MA. I’m going TDY 2-12 Feb to CA. You know what going to happen. Get your shovel ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This winter and this thread in a nutshell 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 CFS is all aboard for first half of Feb at the very least....probably overloads us with extreme cold and dry again but it relaxes towards the middle of the month.....just in time for PD4....calling it now: Monthly (Feb): 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 ^i like your optimism. A Few train cars still on the tracks…Good show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: One glimmer of hope in 12Z GFS fantasy range is that central and eastern Canada much colder after Day 10 this run. That is the thing to track over the next 10 days…how quickly we can get cold enough air back into the east. If cold is going to rebuild quickly up top, this is peak climo for that to happen, so we do have that on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: And for Hoffman, colder anomalies building in lol . Still don't like the warm anomalies from coast to coast in Canada. They should be cooling down first right? It's certainly better than current conditions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CFS is all aboard for first half of Feb at the very least....probably overloads us with extreme cold and dry again but it relaxes towards the middle of the month.....just in time for PD4....calling it now: Monthly (Feb): 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: ^^this thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Checking in the long range, at 10 MB, both the GEFS and the GEPS have the SPV somewhat stretched and off to the side with significant warmth over Siberia. Hopefully is a sign that it is not well coupled to the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CFS is all aboard for first half of Feb at the very least....probably overloads us with extreme cold and dry again but it relaxes towards the middle of the month.....just in time for PD4....calling it now: Monthly (Feb): So now we're punting to mid February? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 How we all should be when we see the long term models looking "good" 1 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ^^this thread Oh we’re long past that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 46 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: This winter and this thread in a nutshell IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ^^this thread 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first That's what I've been saying. Every day that passes, BWI gets a little closer to setting the all time record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first Or most consecutive weekends it rains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Right in time for Ji vacation . 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This hobby sucks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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