January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is not looking good at all. 

And we’re experts in not looking good 

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Glad I went to Hamburg for the lake effect event. Least I got to enjoy something. 

That’s about the amount of snow we’ll see here for the next 10 years + lol. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is not looking good at all. 

For me end of January is my line of demarcation. Feels like if we have another 2016 in us where we get a brief period of decent cold to get one storm, that (or perhaps early Feb) would be the time. I'm not putting all my money on it...but that's about how long I'd let it play out before just unplugging completely (eh who am I kidding I'll probably peek through the blinds through PD, lol)

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

And we’re experts in not looking good 

It is pretty crazy to have such a drought all the way north into New England like this. Even upslope events have been sparse. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Believe it or not...I'm more at peace with this season being a dud then I am about future duds happening this way and more often (and a longer snow drought if things don't work out next year). One bad season ain't my issue...I get over fails that don't even make inside 5 days rather quickly, actually.

You’ve been unhappy 7 years in a row. Isn’t it time you make a change. Stop waiting for external forces to change your situation and do it yourself. I’m not saying this again. So I’m gonna be as blunt as possible then I’m done forever with this. Just accept the snow climo here isn’t going to make you happy. Accept that. Really accept it in every way Damnit. Then do whatever you have to to be happy.  Please. I’m not trying to be an ass. I do care. You’re torturing yourself. Stop it. Accept the reality and then do what is necessary to be happy. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

You do realize this is snow right? Frozen crystals that fall from the sky. A life significance factor of 0.001 out of 10, and most of the depression is over digital snow. The Mid Atlantic region is in a prolonged snow drought. There is nothing in place now or in the near future to shift this pattern. If you want to find meaningful snow head to the west coast, Rockies or northern Plains. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a complete shutout for our region this season. Even snowshoe is paltry. Skiing is some of the worst I’ve seen in years. It’s not just us, much of the MA to New England is hurting. But seriously, find joy in other areas. 

Thanks for this.  It's disappointing, to be sure, for anyone who is a snow lover (myself included).  But what the hell can one do?  You don't have control over what does or doesn't fall from the sky, but you DO have control over how you react and deal with that.  I won't pretend that I'm not disappointed or feel frustrated.  But there are many other things I can do and have been doing, weather be damned.  It shouldn't run one's life.  I still take photos (the sky the other evening was simply amazing at sunset!) which I truly enjoy doing, go for walks, and if I can get back in the right mood for it (since moving a couple months ago), will get on the bike and ride again for a bit.

My only hope, I guess, is that we don't have mosquitos or other annoying bugs start showing up while it's still technically winter! 

[ers-wxman1]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I understand these posts upset you but some of here like to be realistically informed about if it will snow, that is why it is always appreciated when @psuhoffman posts IMO. It’s better than Mets who just hype up storms when it’s far more likely they fail.

Who is doing the hype? Lol nothing to hype about. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is pretty crazy to have such a drought all the way north into New England like this. Even upslope events have been sparse. 

Here’s how bad it’s been the last 7 years…DCA could avg 27” the next 3 seasons and it would still end the 10 year period below avg.  A 30 year avg already pathetically lower than previous historical periods!!!  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I understand these posts upset you but some of here like to be realistically informed about if it will snow, that is why it is always appreciated when @psuhoffman posts IMO. It’s better than Mets who just hype up storms when it’s far more likely they fail.

OK, come on now...leave the National League team from New York out of this!! 

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Here’s how bad it’s been the last 7 years…DCA could avg 27” the next 3 seasons and it would still end the 10 year period below avg.  A 30 year avg already pathetically lower than previous historical periods!!!  

Impressive stats!  We had those incredible seasons… 09/10, 13/14, 15/16 and a couple in between years after, now the drought. Usually see an 18”+ event in the area every 5 years or so but now 7 years and counting. Not just snow, we haven’t had a meaningful tropical system since Irene in 11 and Sandy in 12, derecho in 12. Void of exciting weather for more than 10 years. At some point whether it’s winter, severe, or tropical we will have a big event, pattern won’t be like this forever. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Who is doing the hype? Lol nothing to hype about. 

The usual suspects on Twitter. And some get overly excited by every model run that shows digital blue. Then get mad when reality sets in. 

[ers-wxman1]

7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thanks for this.  It's disappointing, to be sure, for anyone who is a snow lover (myself included).  But what the hell can one do?  You don't have control over what does or doesn't fall from the sky, but you DO have control over how you react and deal with that.  I won't pretend that I'm not disappointed or feel frustrated.  But there are many other things I can do and have been doing, weather be damned.  It shouldn't run one's life.  I still take photos (the sky the other evening was simply amazing at sunset!) which I truly enjoy doing, go for walks, and if I can get back in the right mood for it (since moving a couple months ago), will get on the bike and ride again for a bit.

My only hope, I guess, is that we don't have mosquitos or other annoying bugs start showing up while it's still technically winter! 

Honestly I just wrapped up 3.5 months of Florida weather support for Ian and Nicole, both on-site and remote support. I’ve seen enough carnage for a while and if the R & R comes in the form of a quiet winter I’m not going to balk… lol. I used to go into F5 aggravation over lack of snow but putting things into perspective after a few significant life events and working the Florida incident have honed things in for me. 

[Solution Man]

Don’t chase the true Subject Matter Experts away, we need them.  They also double as therapist and humorist, and are the true voice of reason in the mid-Atlantic forum. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Impressive stats!  We had those incredible seasons… 09/10, 13/14, 15/16 and a couple in between years after, now the drought. Usually see an 18”+ event in the area every 5 years or so but now 7 years and counting. Not just snow, we haven’t had a meaningful tropical system since Irene in 11 and Sandy in 12, derecho in 12. Void of exciting weather for more than 10 years. At some point whether it’s winter, severe, or tropical we will have a big event, pattern won’t be like this forever. 

I agree in a general sense. I do have a concern wrt snow though. I’ve thought this a while and not voiced it but wth. What if the period from 2000-2015 was the big +snow period we’ve been waiting for and we simply missed it (with the exception of a few great years) because of warming?  Places not far north of us that historically we have a decent correlation wrt snow had an amazing run. Many places not far from us has like 11/15 years above avg.  Meanwhile the best we did most years during that stretch was ok and had more below than above snowfall years. It’s always run in cycles but my fear is that was the snowy period we’ve been waiting for and we just missed out because we are too far south to really ever get a truly snowy long term stretch like previous historical ones. 

[ers-wxman1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The usual suspects on Twitter. And some get overly excited by every model run that shows digital blue. Then get mad when reality sets in. 

These guys are an embarrassment to all meteorologists out there. They give all the rest of us a bad look. Trying to hit a home run to drive publicity. I end up putting out fires over bad information often, and it is difficult to walk back once it’s out there. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Impressive stats!  We had those incredible seasons… 09/10, 13/14, 15/16 and a couple in between years after, now the drought. Usually see an 18”+ event in the area every 5 years or so but now 7 years and counting. Not just snow, we haven’t had a meaningful tropical system since Irene in 11 and Sandy in 12, derecho in 12. Void of exciting weather for more than 10 years. At some point whether it’s winter, severe, or tropical we will have a big event, pattern won’t be like this forever. 

Yup, those are some good winter seasons to remember!  One thing I've found interesting, and this could just be total chance and luck, is how March has tended to be a month that gives us a decent event and one last cold blast before spring settles in.  More so in the last decade, it seems.  I don't know what that means, if anything, and it is anecdotal to be sure.  But just ticking off years that I can immediately call to mind that had some kind of March snow/wintry event include 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022.  I may have missed a year in there, too.  They weren't huge storms or anything like that but there was some legit cold and a few inches (2009. 2014, 2015 did have solid warning events in March).

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup, those are some good winter seasons to remember!  One thing I've found interesting, and this could just be total chance and luck, is how March has tended to be a month that gives us a decent event and one last cold blast before spring settles in.  More so in the last decade, it seems.  I don't know what that means, if anything, and it is anecdotal to be sure.  But just ticking off years that I can immediately call to mind that had some kind of March snow/wintry event include 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022.  I may have missed a year in there, too.  They weren't huge storms or anything like that but there was some legit cold and a few inches (2009. 2014, 2015 did have solid warning events in March).

March is the change of seasons, change of the jet stream, clashing air masses. Almost always get something of interest in March. Our issue is cold air. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

These guys are an embarrassment to all meteorologists out there. They give all the rest of us a bad look. Trying to hit a home run to drive publicity. I end up putting out fires over bad information often, and it is difficult to walk back once it’s out there. 

Whatever can generate clicks, in this age, I suppose.  Sadly, that's what it's all about so often...apologies for my cynicism.  It's not just weather either...that extends to news as well.

[ers-wxman1]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Whatever can generate clicks, in this age, I suppose.  Sadly, that's what it's all about so often...apologies for my cynicism.  It's not just weather either...that extends to news as well.

It’s everything nowadays. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

March is the change of seasons, change of the jet stream, clashing air masses. Almost always get something of interest in March. Our issue is cold air. 

Yes, very true.  March is cruel and kind (weather-wise, that is!) which makes it interesting at least to me.  I grew up in northeast Ohio and March was always a "winter" month more often than not.  Nobody in that area got suckered in by a nice weekend thinking winter was over, LOL!!  I recall many storms then, and some of the most dramatic turn-arounds from a fine spring day to winter.  The best example I remember was 1987, it was in the 70s the last weekend of March.  The following day, Cleveland got 16" snow.  (ETA:  And the Cleveland Indians/Guardians getting snowed out occasionally for opening day in April!)

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Honestly I just wrapped up 3.5 months of Florida weather support for Ian and Nicole, both on-site and remote support. I’ve seen enough carnage for a while and if the R & R comes in the form of a quiet winter I’m not going to balk… lol. I used to go into F5 aggravation over lack of snow but putting things into perspective after a few significant life events and working the Florida incident have honed things in for me. 

You're not the first person I've heard say that on here...almost the exact same thing actually--She also said she used to get upset then had some losses and gained perspective. It's always kinda stuck in my mind...I mean I hope that ain't what it's gonna take for me to break out of it, though. Logically ya know there are more important things...and yet ya find yourself getting upset--all because somehow it looks larger than literally everything else in life at that moment. But it ain't so and really is just snow...far worse things can happen than it not snowing. But Iogic is one thing, emotion is another, lol If ya feel like you need it, ya gonna think you can't live without it.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree in a general sense. I do have a concern wrt snow though. I’ve thought this a while and not voiced it but wth. What if the period from 2000-2015 was the big +snow period we’ve been waiting for and we simply missed it (with the exception of a few great years) because of warming?  Places not far north of us that historically we have a decent correlation wrt snow had an amazing run. Many places not far from us has like 11/15 years above avg.  Meanwhile the best we did most years during that stretch was ok and had more below than above snowfall years. It’s always run in cycles but my fear is that was the snowy period we’ve been waiting for and we just missed out because we are too far south to really ever get a truly snowy long term stretch like previous historical ones. 

This is interesting.  So I moved to this area in 2001.  Thinking of the big or really good/memorable winters here in that time period you list, I'd say 2002-03, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 come to mind.  And 2014-15 was an amazing period compressed into about a 4 week period (mid-Feb to early Mar); it absolutely sucked before then.  2013-14 was amazing in that it was essentially wall-to-wall from December through March.  I'd almost argue that 2006-07 was pretty good and often overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow.  But that February was remarkably cold and consistently so (much like 2015 was too).  We just missed a big event over Valentine's Day and ended up with 3" sleet instead.  I've said this before, but if that had worked out and the DC area got a foot of snow, I often wondered if people would look at that season differently.  It was another one that turned around after being sucky through mid-January or so.  But anyhow, outside those winters I listed above, there's nothing else from 2000-2015 that really stands out, so perhaps that's in line with what you're saying...i.e., we got "some", but didn't exactly cash in (relatively speaking) like other areas that made out big in that time frame.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

This is interesting.  So I moved in to this area in 2001.  Thinking of the big or really good/memorable winters here in that time period you list, I'd say 2002-03, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15 come to mind.  And 2014-15 was an amazing period compressed into about a 4 week period (mid-Feb to early Mar); it absolutely sucked before then.  2013-14 was amazing in that it was essentially wall-to-wall from December through March.  I'd almost argue that 2006-07 was pretty good and often overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow.  But that February was remarkably cold and consistently so (much like 2015 was too).  We just missed a big event over Valentine's Day and ended up with 3" sleet instead.  I've said this before, but if that had worked out and the DC area got a foot of snow, I often wondered if people would look at that season differently.  It was another one that turned around after being sucky through mid-January or so.  But anyhow, outside those winters I listed above, there's nothing else from 2000-2015 that really stands out, so perhaps that's in line with what you're saying...i.e., we got "some", but didn't exactly cash in (relatively speaking) like other areas that made out big in that time frame.

Exactly. There was a decoupling between our area and places just to our north around 2000. Before that there was a better correlation between snowy and non snowy periods. But since 2000 it’s been way more common for places like NYC to get a ton of snow in same seasons we are way below avg.  My fear is that was the up cycle and the best we got out of it during that 15 year period was that we were a little less below avg than we were before and after  if true it makes the trend alarmingly worse  

 

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly. There was a decoupling between our area and places just to our north around 2000. Before that there was a better correlation between snowy and non snowy periods. But since 2000 it’s been way more common for places like NYC to get a ton of snow in same seasons we are way below avg.  My fear is that was the up cycle and the best we got out of it during that 15 year period was that we were a little less below avg than we were before and after  if true it makes the trend alarmingly worse  

 

Yeah I lived in NYC from 2010-2018, and really there was one bad winter in that stretch (in terms of little snow) - 2011-12.  15/16 would've been bad had it not been for the January storm that year (and the fluke -1F reading on Valentine's day, possibly the last time Manhattan will ever dip below zero lol).   But yeah it's been a struggle here.

[cbmclean]

Ok.  So as of today the pattern could improve ~Jan 20th, with probably at least a week to recover temperatures after that.  So by ~ Jan 27th there could be hope.  All we can do is take it 1 day at a time.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet

Just saw a tweet from Eric Webber about that.  Hopefully it leads to improvements.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Just saw a tweet from Eric Webber about that.  Hopefully it leads to improvements.

The thread:

This adds another reason why I won't pull the plug on this winter unless we don't get anything by late Jan/early Feb. If we could get just a week of cold...

[Ji]

If the track was better...euro is willing to give alot of snow to nearby areas

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

If the track was better...euro is willing to give alot of snow to nearby areas

I’ll post a picture people can actually see:

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't mean "position" like it's a matter of opinion. What you're saying about what's happening right now is right (it is)...you're just saying it a LOT. Why you gotta say it over and over and over--it only reinforces depression in an already depressed thread. It's kinda like...yeah we know, we heard ya, it's horrible (it actually is).

And there are ppl here who are mets and hobbyists and absolutely loathe the cold and snow. So when we enter a period in a year or so where it's wall to wall cold and storms do we all just stop posting about the cold stats in fear their feelings might get hurt? You can't please everyone. I don't want you to take this the wrong way, but this is a public weather forum. If you or anyone else here gets upset by scientific stats, you probably shouldn't be here tbh.