January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

We had to wait a year??

Feb and March 2015 were pretty awesome. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

sleet ruined a potential 30 inch storm for dulles. Only got 18 or so

Dulles got 15. Where you are now got  18-20”. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. 

I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now

Awwww, I can’t wait. I hope we get a HECS on January 25th. Have a safe trip. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You can’t win, but you do sound truly beaten down my friend. The last few years have not been kind to snow lovers in the east. 

I’m about as pessimistic as I’ve ever felt wrt snow but I don’t feel it’s unwarranted   

[psuhoffman]

@Ji

thank god the mjo is going into phase 8 or it could be a 110% chance of above normal!  

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m about as pessimistic as I’ve ever felt wrt snow but I don’t feel it’s unwarranted   

Yeah but just consider the thread though...I mean we are as downtrodden as we ever have been already. I mean your position is like crystal clear, seriously. It's like a constant reminder even if based on how things have been

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but just consider the thread though...I mean we are as downtrodden as we ever have been already. I mean your position is like crystal clear, seriously. It's like a constant reminder even if based on how things have been

It’s not my position. 90% of my posts are simply statistics, observations and guidance products. It’s not my fault all the objective evidence sucks. 
 

Back in October when I was saying this season was likely gonna hurt that was me making forecasts and opining. You had more of a case then. But now all I’m doing is posting what we’re all seeing. I didn’t make the models say that. I didn’t make it +10 all over the continent. I didn’t issue that NWS forecast. And you know how bad it is. Yet you continue to read then complain when it’s exactly what you know it will be?  
 

What do you want a hug?  Ok I’ll try. Here’s an uplifting nugget. Life sucks but it’s ok because someday you die. 

[Heisy]

This model is horrible. This is 48 hours out dif between 18/00z GFS. My guess is now GFS won’t phase the s/w with tpv piece.




.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not my position. 90% of my posts are simply statistics, observations and guidance products. It’s not my fault all the objective evidence sucks. 
 

Back in October when I was saying this season was likely gonna hurt that was me making forecasts and opining. You had more of a case then. But now all I’m doing is posting what we’re all seeing. I didn’t make the models say that. I didn’t make it +10 all over the continent. I didn’t issue that NWS forecast. And you know how bad it is. Yet you continue to read then complain when it’s exactly what you know it will be?  
 

What do you want a hug?  Ok I’ll try. Here’s an uplifting nugget. Life sucks but it’s ok because someday you die. 

I didn't mean "position" like it's a matter of opinion. What you're saying about what's happening right now is right (it is)...you're just saying it a LOT. Why you gotta say it over and over and over--it only reinforces depression in an already depressed thread. It's kinda like...yeah we know, we heard ya, it's horrible (it actually is).

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa I suggest you learn to laugh about this. It’s all you can do. Ignoring it won’t change it. Getting upset won’t make you feel better. Just laugh and find other things that give you joy in life. Or chase the snow. Or move somewhere that gets snow. But for the love of god don’t stay here and be depressed that it’s not snowing when you know it’s not going to snow 99% of the time. 

[TSSN+]

Lol this model

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa I suggest you learn to laugh about this. It’s all you can do. Ignoring it won’t change it. Getting upset won’t make you feel better. Just laugh and find other things that give you joy in life. Or chase the snow. Or move somewhere that gets snow. But for the love of god don’t stay here and be depressed that it’s not snowing when you know it’s not going to snow 99% of the time. 

Listen KNOWING it's bad doesn't make the pain go away, dude. I'm not sure you understand what if feels like. For some of us the present reality is not what we came up with like at at all. This problem is potentially bigger than now...but the FUTURE. It's not just bad now, but talkin' worse in the future. That part is NEW. Before ya had duds then hits, not 7 straight duds with no guarantee it breaks. That's pain, dude, and it's a tough pill to swallow this new reality.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This model is horrible. This is 48 hours out dif between 18/00z GFS. My guess is now GFS won’t phase the s/w with tpv piece.




.

Ya we probably aren’t talking enough about the fact the Gfs has been a real train wreck since the last update.  People say this all the time and usually it a joke but they really did break the thing. Not that it was great before but honestly I found the Gfs more useful 10 years ago when it had more consistent biases and I felt I could adjust and figure out what the error was. Now the only consistent bias is being horribly wrong. 

[Heisy]

Check these differences out before day 4, lol what in the world



.

[Interstate]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:11 PM, clskinsfan said:

Nope. But I would sure as S like to be in phase 8/1 in January than 4/5. 4/5 is pretty much a death nail. 

someone got pee in their cheerios tonight. 

[Amped]

Just now, Heisy said:

Check these differences out before day 4, lol what in the world



.

We need to stop trusting models 10 days out when they can't even be trusted 4 days out.  I'm not sure if it barfed this run or what,

[Heisy]

Ya we probably aren’t talking enough about the fact the Gfs has been a real train wreck since the last update.  People say this all the time and usually it a joke but they really did break the thing. Not that it was great before but honestly I found the Gfs more useful 10 years ago when it had more consistent biases and I felt I could adjust and figure out what the error was. Now the only consistent bias is being horribly wrong. 

This. Even if the GFS was wrong it did tend to slowly adjust to trends. This new updated GFS is abysmal trainwreck and needs serious work. It’s been horrific this winter.


.

[Interstate]

Just now, Amped said:

We need to stop trusting models 10 days out when they can't even be trusted 4 days out.  I'm not sure if it barfed this run or what,

I have been saying that for years. Models should only be available out to 5 days for the public. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen KNOWING it's bad doesn't make the pain go away, dude. I'm not sure you understand what if feels like. For some of us the present reality is not what we came up with like at at all. This problem is potentially bigger than now...but the FUTURE. It's not just bad now, but talkin' worse in the future. That part is NEW. Before ya had duds then hits, not 7 straight duds with no guarantee it breaks. That's pain, dude.

You think I spent thousands of hours pouring over every text and studying every snowstorm we’ve ever had because I don’t like snow???  Dude I know.  But you need to just accept it.  Seriously.

Try this…assume it’s never going to snow again. Just accept that. Then what are you going to do?  Ball up and cry forever?  Or…find other things to invest in emotionally that bring you joy. Or move to where it snows. Or chase snowstorms. Take some control of your situation.  Own your story. Do what it takes to make you happy instead of wallowing in defeat.  Man up and deal. 

[Ji]

Gfs took away the blue on tomorrow and next week

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This. Even if the GFS was wrong it did tend to slowly adjust to trends. This new updated GFS is abysmal trainwreck and needs serious work. It’s been horrific this winter.


.

It’s not just anecdotal it’s verification scores are a mess 

[ers-wxman1]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen KNOWING it's bad doesn't make the pain go away, dude. I'm not sure you understand what if feels like. For some of us the present reality is not what we came up with like at at all. This problem is potentially bigger than now...but the FUTURE. It's not just bad now, but talkin' worse in the future. That part is NEW. Before ya had duds then hits, not 7 straight duds with no guarantee it breaks. That's pain, dude, and it's a tough pill to swallow this new reality.

You do realize this is snow right? Frozen crystals that fall from the sky. A life significance factor of 0.001 out of 10, and most of the depression is over digital snow. The Mid Atlantic region is in a prolonged snow drought. There is nothing in place now or in the near future to shift this pattern. If you want to find meaningful snow head to the west coast, Rockies or northern Plains. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a complete shutout for our region this season. Even snowshoe is paltry. Skiing is some of the worst I’ve seen in years. It’s not just us, much of the MA to New England is hurting. But seriously, find joy in other areas. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs took away the blue on tomorrow and next week

Don’t worry CFS says a pattern change is only 20 days away!  

[TSSN+]

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a complete shutout for our region this season. 

Oh no you said it.  He might be jumping off a building right now. 
 

Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it. 

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Oh no you said it.  He might be jumping off a building right now. 
 

Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it. 

It is not looking good at all. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It is not looking good at all. 

Glad I went to Hamburg for the lake effect event. Least I got to enjoy something. 

[MDstorm]

The competition in this thread for this award is intense!

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh no you said it.  He might be jumping off a building right now. 
 

Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it. 

Believe it or not...I'm more at peace with this season being a dud then I am about future duds happening this way and more often (and a longer snow drought if things don't work out next year). One bad season ain't my issue...I get over fails that don't even make inside 5 days rather quickly, actually.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Better  Of course I know you're just calling balls and strikes...but man, every now and then if ya don't have good news to post...

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but just consider the thread though...I mean we are as downtrodden as we ever have been already. I mean your position is like crystal clear, seriously. It's like a constant reminder even if based on how things have been

I understand these posts upset you but some of here like to be realistically informed about if it will snow, that is why it is always appreciated when @psuhoffman posts IMO. It’s better than Mets who just hype up storms when it’s far more likely they fail.