Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Ahh memories. Remember when the GFS was a good model and could nail a storm 10 days out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The mood in here is dark. So here’s the radar for next week. We will never see that again. Never 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We will never see that again. Never We will when we get out of La Niña 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok. That looks great. It’s gonna be a snowstravaganza around Jan 25. Better Of course I know you're just calling balls and strikes...but man, every now and then if ya don't have good news to post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ahh memories. Remember when the GFS was a good model and could nail a storm 10 days out? now that storm would be in NW indiana 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Better Of course I know you're just calling balls and strikes...but man, every now and then if ya don't have good news to post... unless we are 4-5 days from snow....99% of his posts will be negative/heartbreaking. Just got to deal with it. If you cant--take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We will never see that again. Never not true at all. We have seen 7-8 once in a lifetime snowstorms or so since 1979 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 unless we are 4-5 days from snow....99% of his posts will be negative/heartbreaking. Just got to deal with it. If you cant--take a breakThey’re not negative, they’re factual/scientific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: now that storm would be in NW indiana And the snow would be confined to a 7 mile wide swath on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, anotherman said: They’re not negative, they’re factual/scientific. yes but they are still negative lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging. I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time. We're already in an -EAMT that's retracting the jet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 yes but they are still negative lolHahahaha…..that’s just because this winter sucks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: not true at all. We have seen 7-8 once in a lifetime snowstorms or so since 1979 So if life expectancy is about 70 years, give or take, and 1979 was 44 years ago, how have we gotten 7 or 8 "once in a lifetime" storms? Now 1993....THAT is a once in a lifetime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We will when we get out of La Niña Umm I think 1995-96 was a La Niña year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We will never see that again. Never we will we've just been unlucky. lr forecasts have nina turning into mdt-strong nino by next winter and there are already some signs nina will start to fade soon like losing deep-layer cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ahh memories. Remember when the GFS was a good model and could nail a storm 10 days out? That’s like the only 10 day winter storm the models have ever locked on and never let go lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Umm I think 1995-96 was a La Niña year? Was coming out of Nino and going into Niña. But we all know most our good winters are ninos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So if life expectancy is about 70 years, give or take, and 1979 was 44 years ago, how have we gotten 7 or 8 "once in a lifetime" storms? Now 1993....THAT is a once in a lifetime event. 79/83/93/96,2003,2010(twice-for some 3 times) and 2016. Thats 8-9 once in a lifetime storms ive lived through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 That’s like the only 10 day winter storm the models have ever locked on and never let go lolThe ‘93 storm was actually modeled very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: sleet ruined a potential 30 inch storm for dulles. Only got 18 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, Ji said: 79/83/93/96,2003,2010(twice-for some 3 times) and 2016. Thats 8-9 once in a lifetime storms ive lived through If they ever create a time machine before we pass, we need to have an amwx gathering for a Jebwalk during every one of these. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, anotherman said: The ‘93 storm was actually modeled very well. As was 96 overall...8 days lead time. Just shifted N at the last 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question. Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss? The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time. Lag to some degree. But over the last several years it seems the cycle is this…whether by ridge or trough we get a period where the pac flow attacks and within 48 hours obliterates cold from the whole continent. Then it takes weeks to recover once the flow weakens and before enough cold can build another pac onslaught slams the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We will when we get out of La Niña 1996 was during a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: The ‘93 storm was actually modeled very well. 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As was 96 overall...8 days lead time. Just shifted N at the last 36 hours. Right. Eight days, not ten 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I remember in January 2015 you were all getting mad at me for being too optimistic because we were getting screwed but I kept saying be patient it’s gonna turn around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I remember in January 2015 you were all getting mad at me for being too optimistic because we were getting screwed but I kept saying be patient it’s gonna turn around. You can’t win, but you do sound truly beaten down my friend. The last few years have not been kind to snow lovers in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I remember in January 2015 you were all getting mad at me for being too optimistic because we were getting screwed but I kept saying be patient it’s gonna turn around. We had to wait a year?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The 2016 map I posted was sort of a joke. It nailed the blizzard in 2016 but if you look at the prog it was actually about 5 days early with it the model still sucks it was never really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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