Terpeast Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just when you’re ready to move on, it pulls you back in with a bit of hopium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Just when you’re ready to move on, it pulls you back in with a bit of hopium Every time, don’t fall for its evil tricks. Guess we got to see what 0z says now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Well at least it’s heading in the right direction…for now. That could be how the area scores frozen on the front end - either keep the primary from getting too far north (not sure that’s likely as of now) or get some precip to “break off” or get shunted east of the low far enough so we take advantage of the column before we lose it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Every time, don’t fall for its evil tricks. Guess we got to see what 0z says now. Saturday evenings a week before are it's favorite time too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: That could be how the area scores frozen on the front end - either keep the primary from getting too far north (not sure that’s likely as of now) or get some precip to “break off” or get shunted east of the low far enough so we take advantage of the column before we lose it. I think the second scenario you pointed out is the best shot. Need that good confluence to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The antecedent high pressure has trended better on the GFS for the late week event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though . Hope so, especially since the ensembles are run off of an older version of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS…P14 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS…P14Horrible. Going the wrong way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. .Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, Heisy said: All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. . Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26 We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26This also sort of aligns with MJO phase shift… HECS incoming Jan 25th . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, Heisy said: All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. . Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26 I doubt you miss much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Heisy said: All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change. . For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: 18 minutes ago, ravensrule said: We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms. I'm sorry you've reached your maximum for the number of bad news posts in a day. Please try again tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet. It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The SPV looking somewhat stretched in the long range on the 18z GEFS. Doesn't necessarily imply anything good in the troposphere but I like seeing it better than a big blue consolidated bowling ball. Note the warm anomaly growing in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though First step of getting out of a hole is: stop digging. I'll be happy if the mild pacific air actually cuts off and then I'll worry about the recovery time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms. Heck of a cold snap taking place on the exact opposite part of the hemisphere.. it's like a Jan 2006 style month in terms of those temp differences. I believe that might've been a similar h500 pattern for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm sorry you've reached your maximum for the number of bad news posts in a day. Please try again tomorrow Ok. That looks great. It’s gonna be a snowstravaganza around Jan 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm sorry you've reached your maximum for the number of bad news posts in a day. Please try again tomorrow So have you. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms. Honest question. Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss? The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: So have you. As I typed I predicted someone would come back and say something like this...I was right, lol Now technically, I don't deliver bad news...I complain about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, cbmclean said: Honest question. Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss? The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time. Same question...That week is gonna be one to watch to see if we can re-establish some kind of cold before the next weekend/beginning of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The mood in here is dark. So here’s the radar for next week. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok. That looks great. It’s gonna be a snowstravaganza around Jan 25. we are due for the son of jan 25,2000(how was that storm 23 years ago)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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