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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well at least it’s heading in the right direction…for now. 

8D454847-1424-4137-A192-0E4D2F70DDCD.gif

That could be how the area scores frozen on the front end - either keep the primary from getting too far north (not sure that’s likely as of now) or get some precip to “break off” or get shunted east of the low far enough so we take advantage of the column before we lose it. 

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That could be how the area scores frozen on the front end - either keep the primary from getting too far north (not sure that’s likely as of now) or get some precip to “break off” or get shunted east of the low far enough so we take advantage of the column before we lose it. 

I think the second scenario you pointed out is the best shot. Need that good confluence to the north.

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19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS is phasing part of the TPV with that southern vort, miniature version of what euro was doing a few days ago. Do we buy? Idk? I bet GEFS will come in colder and with some weenie hits because of it though


.

Hope so, especially since the ensembles are run off of an older version of the GFS. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, Heisy said:
All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change.


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Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26

We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
31 minutes ago, Heisy said:
All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change.


.

Of course...ill be in Florida Jan 24-26

I doubt you miss much. :lol:

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29 minutes ago, Heisy said:

All three ensembles have a Pos PNA/-EPO setting up around the 20th. We’ve been teased all winter with this, but at least we got some signal for positive change.


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For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.

 


 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
18 minutes ago, ravensrule said:
We will miss you like people miss their hemorrhoids. 

I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now

Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great

but…

2FEF1060-A44A-4726-9C4B-A05BCCD7EA78.thumb.png.97304da889535ed4c400d2d7d8757522.png

Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.  

 

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19 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

For the first half of Jan it seems to me that there will be an -EAMT event, retracting the extremely extended Pacific jet. But then we get another +EAMT(HP moving through east Asia) that starts extending the jet again into a spot thats more ideal for western ridging / aleutian low. Far out, but we'll see what happens when we get closer to it. Last time in December what happened was that the +EAMT was strong and overextended the jet.

 


 

image.png

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It will take some time to recover from the mild Pacific air though

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great

but…

2FEF1060-A44A-4726-9C4B-A05BCCD7EA78.thumb.png.97304da889535ed4c400d2d7d8757522.png

Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.  

 

Heck of a cold snap taking place on the exact opposite part of the hemisphere.. it's like a Jan 2006 style month in terms of those temp differences. I believe that might've been a similar h500 pattern for us too. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great

but…

2FEF1060-A44A-4726-9C4B-A05BCCD7EA78.thumb.png.97304da889535ed4c400d2d7d8757522.png

Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.  

 

Honest question.  Is that just the lag from the Pac Puke or is something else amiss?  The pac jet doesn;t look horrible at that time.

 

 

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