Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12Z EPS yawning at snow potential for late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I’m gonna say looking at the Euro run coming up might not be your best option. You might want to pass on this one. If you think the GFS can deal out a shit taco the Euro will serve up a shit stew. 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just accept that we don't snow well here, and that the only time the ensembles really showed a good system was 9 days out, that is way too far out to get invested. If you need to get an app or chrome extension that blocks tropical tidbits, pivotal and amwx. I use one for school that is called stay focused on the chrome store. Hey I'm not even mad at mext week's threat failing (was a tad annoyed but that's it. I wasn't too far in on investinf) as much as WHY it's failing. I'm worried about little to no snow in future years, every January looking like this, and no positive admist the more normal usual ways we fail. Like even if it was just A bad season, that would be one thing. But now this could be all future winters. Like legit the main thing to look forward to in DJF ain't gonna be there even as occasional as it was. Thanks for telling me about the app, snowen...will definitely consider making use of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12Z EPS yawning at snow potential for late week.Most of that comes from Sunday’s “storm” too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey I'm not even mad at mext week's threat failing (was a tad annoyed but that's it. I wasn't too far in on investinf) as much as WHY it's failing. I'm worried about little to no snow in future years, every January looking like this, and no positive admist the more normal usual ways we fail. Like even if it was just A bad season, that would be one thing. But now this could be all future winters. Like legit the main thing to look forward to in DJF ain't gonna be there even as occasional as it was. Thanks for telling me about the app, snowen...will definitely consider making use of it. Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had. And at least when we do get a good winter/good storm after all these winters it's going to feel soo satisfying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS yawning at snow potential for late week. Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS yawning at snow potential for late week. Given how the Op had the impossible dual scenario of both a primary Ohio low and a coastal low, I don't think the euro overall has a good handle on this right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: And at least when we do get a good winter/good storm after all these winters it's going to feel soo satisfying Nobody will deserve that more than we do. Feels like we've suffered enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nobody will deserve that more than we do. Feels like we've suffered enough! Fr lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO….perhaps it will be correct but seems the model can’t decide between the Ohio valley low and a coastal transfer. By the time it consolidates, it is too far north and off the coast for our latitude. Transfer sooner, closer to the coast then you can worry about temps… Not much chance it develops until offshore. There is so much relative warmth surrounding the storm it takes that long for any notable cold on the backside to get to that point and create enough of a thermal boundary to initiate a low forming. Plus the longwave pattern is very progressive, so it's moving away as it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, roardog said: Obviously the Pacific is warmer now than it was 40 years ago so that could add on a couple of degrees but with a trough from Alaska to Mexico, there’s nothing but Pacific air throughout the US and Canada. Is it really that different than a month like January 1990 that had the same set up but with a cooler Pacific Ocean? Jan 1990 is a pretty bad comp to now. It was an awful longwave pattern regardless of background temps. A better comp looking at some historical analogs would be Jan 1992, Jan 1987, Jan 1964, Jan 1998, Late Jan early Feb 1983...and some others. The majority of the comps I see weren't that great, they were all above average temp periods...but guess what, almost all of them also featured some snow. Jan 1992 is the top analog and DC had 4" that month which is close to average. Jan 1987 is a top analog and DC got 2 snowstorms that month. Feb 87 is another decent analog and that month was very warm but DC got a 10" snowstorm from a wave that snuck under them despite it being 50-60 degrees a couple days before and after the storm. Same with some of the other analogs...they were all pretty warm but also most featured some snow. Even 1998 featured quite a bit of snow not that far NW of the cities. My area NW of DC/Balt had several snows by now that year. This year just perfect track rainstorms. I think the degradation is there. It's not like we went from epic cold periods to torch...but some warm but still able to snow periods have become absolute no hope torch patterns IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek Ehh… they’ve been getting a decent upslope event even from the most meager progs and has been trending pretty steady. As warm as it is for the lowlands, as depicted, the highlands will be cold enough for moist, northwest flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This year just perfect track rainstorms. Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter? I thought this was the first. Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter? I thought this was the first. Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster. Don't make him pull out the other instances the last 7+ years...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Another contributing factor to our decrease in snowfall is the success of measures put into place to reduce sulfate emissions by power plants. Fifteen years ago, a sizable amount of the warming associated with greenhouse gases was offset by cooling by aerosols - no longer the case. As a side the decrease in aerosols may also play a role in the disappearance of the weekend effect. While I was never fully on-board with the idea, the rule held that large east-coast snow storms were much more likely on weekends than weekdays. If true, a possible explanation is day-of-the-week variations in aerosol emissions. Aerosols act as cloud-condensation nuclei with the number of aerosols affecting the rate and consequently the altitude at which cloud droplets turn into rain drops or graupel. Today, day-of-the week variations still occur but their amplitude is much weaker. Finally, while warming will continue for the foreseeable future, a sizable portion of our poor snow prospects the last several years may be due to decadal oscillations in the Pacific. Years with 20-30" of snow in the DC area may not be extinct. Each of the last 7 winters I've tracked the weather in DC and also in a New England location that I visit later in the winter. This year I'm going to the Winter Carnival in Quebec City. Last year I was in the southern Adirondacks the day of the MLK storm. Hopefully going all of the way to the Laurentian mountains will prove to be unnecessary but we'll see. Like many here I'm still hoping for snow next weekend and later this winter. May those proclaiming the death of the weekend effect, Alberta clippers, as well as packed isotherms on the north side of storms be dead wrong. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looking ahead to the third week of January… WB 12Z EPS..we are not done yet…. 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 29 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter? I thought this was the first. Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster. That comment wasn’t specific to here. Over the last 7 years we’ve had several comps to this pattern with a favorable longwave setup in a torched thermal regime and they all ended this way. This winter I’ve noted a lack of snow to the NW of waves even well to our north on several occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Anyways I feel like we’ve exhausted this topic. Time to go back to day 15 pattern chasing. Maybe this time it actually works out. We’re due and all that. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 You know folks…. 99.9999% of people are perfectly happy with no snow…. But we continue our insanity of watching/hoping for snow knowing that most of the time we will fail, just the way it is…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: You know folks…. 99.9999% of people are perfectly happy with no snow…. But we continue our insanity of watching/hoping for snow knowing that most of the time we will fail, just the way it is…. That’s what we do…obsess over frozen water vapor. Thankfully there are others or I’d feel weird. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The store had a full display of snow shovels so I think we’re okay. Maybe that only works in the short range though? We’ll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Climate change should not be a polarizing topic on a weather board, yet somehow it is. Yeah, totally agree. It's sad in so many ways that politically and otherwise, it's become a contentious issue when it shouldn't be. Yet it has become that despite a mountain of evidence. At this point, it would be akin to arguing that gravity isn't a thing, or that the sun actually does goes around the earth (sorry, Galileo!), etc. You get the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: The store had a full display of snow shovels so I think we’re okay. Maybe that only works in the short range though? We’ll see I guess. There's a store nearby me that always had snow shovels out, no matter what time of year. I even saw them in mid-summer, sitting up atop a couple of the shelves. I guess they were hoping for the rare July 4 blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Lol love getting new solutions every 6 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Get your drinks out. HH GFS with the digital blue for next weekends storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Get your drinks out. HH GFS with the digital blue for next weekends storm. 50/50 low back on GFS lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Get your drinks out. HH GFS with the digital blue for next weekends storm. It's the weekend...drinks have been out long before HH GFS!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Weenies after seeing 18z gfs… it ain’t over yet! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Remember when many were worried about a southern slider? Those were the days… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Remember when many were worried about a southern slider? Those were the days… Well at least it’s heading in the right direction…for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now