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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I’m gonna say looking at the Euro run coming up might not be your best option.  You might want to pass on this one.  If you think the GFS can deal out a shit taco the Euro will serve up a shit stew.  

 

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just accept that we don't snow well here, and that the only time the ensembles really showed a good system was 9 days out, that is way too far out to get invested. If you need to get an app or chrome extension that blocks tropical tidbits, pivotal and amwx. I use one for school that is called stay focused on the chrome store. 

Hey I'm not even mad at mext week's threat failing (was a tad annoyed but that's it. I wasn't too far in on investinf) as much as WHY it's failing. I'm worried about little to no snow in future years, every January looking like this, and no positive admist the more normal usual ways we fail. Like even if it was just A bad season, that would be one thing. But now this could be all future winters. Like legit the main thing to look forward to in DJF ain't gonna be there even as occasional as it was.

Thanks for telling me about the app, snowen...will definitely consider making use of it.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Hey I'm not even mad at mext week's threat failing (was a tad annoyed but that's it. I wasn't too far in on investinf) as much as WHY it's failing. I'm worried about little to no snow in future years, every January looking like this, and no positive admist the more normal usual ways we fail. Like even if it was just A bad season, that would be one thing. But now this could be all future winters. Like legit the main thing to look forward to in DJF ain't gonna be there even as occasional as it was.

Thanks for telling me about the app, snowen...will definitely consider making use of it.

Dw we will get an above average winter soon, while yes our climo is decreasing, I think weve just been sort of unlucky these past 7 years with all of the ninas we've had.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO….perhaps it will be correct but seems the model can’t decide between the Ohio valley low and a coastal transfer.  By the time it consolidates, it is too far north and off the coast for our latitude.  Transfer sooner, closer to the coast then you can worry about temps…

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Not much chance it develops until offshore. There is so much relative warmth surrounding the storm it takes that long for any notable cold on the backside to get to that point and create enough of a thermal boundary to initiate a low forming. Plus the longwave pattern is very progressive, so it's moving away as it develops.

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2 hours ago, roardog said:

Obviously the Pacific is warmer now than it was 40 years ago so that could add on a couple of degrees but with a trough from Alaska to Mexico, there’s nothing but Pacific air throughout the US and Canada. Is it really that different than a month like January 1990 that had the same set up but with a cooler Pacific Ocean? 

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Jan 1990 is a pretty bad comp to now.  It was an awful longwave pattern regardless of background temps.  A better comp looking at some historical analogs would be Jan 1992, Jan 1987, Jan 1964, Jan 1998, Late Jan early Feb 1983...and some others.  The majority of the comps I see weren't that great, they were all above average temp periods...but guess what, almost all of them also featured some snow.  Jan 1992 is the top analog and DC had 4" that month which is close to average.  Jan 1987 is a top analog and DC got 2 snowstorms that month.  Feb 87 is another decent analog and that month was very warm but DC got a 10" snowstorm from a wave that snuck under them despite it being 50-60 degrees a couple days before and after the storm.  Same with some of the other analogs...they were all pretty warm but also most featured some snow.  Even 1998 featured quite a bit of snow not that far NW of the cities.  My area NW of DC/Balt had several snows by now that year.  This year just perfect track rainstorms.  I think the degradation is there.  It's not like we went from epic cold periods to torch...but some warm but still able to snow periods have become absolute no hope torch patterns IMO.  

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26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, if it’s trending that way, it’s not even worth a chase to Deep Creek

Ehh… they’ve been getting a decent upslope event even from the most meager progs and has been trending pretty steady. As warm as it is for the lowlands, as depicted, the highlands will be cold enough for moist, northwest flow.

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This year just perfect track rainstorms. 

Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter?  I thought this was the first.  Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter?  I thought this was the first.  Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.

Don't make him pull out the other instances the last 7+ years...lol

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Another contributing factor to our decrease in snowfall is the success of measures put into place to reduce sulfate emissions by power plants.   Fifteen years ago, a sizable amount of the warming associated with greenhouse gases was offset by cooling by aerosols - no longer the case.

As a side the decrease in aerosols may also play a role in the disappearance of the weekend effect.  While I was never fully on-board with the idea, the rule held that large east-coast snow storms were much more likely on weekends than weekdays.  If true, a possible explanation is day-of-the-week variations in aerosol emissions.  Aerosols act as cloud-condensation nuclei with the number of aerosols affecting the rate and consequently the altitude at which cloud droplets turn into rain drops or graupel.  Today, day-of-the week variations still occur but their amplitude is much weaker. 

Finally, while warming will continue for the foreseeable future, a sizable portion of our poor snow prospects the last several years may be due to decadal oscillations in the Pacific.  Years with 20-30" of snow in the DC area may not be extinct. 

Each of the last 7 winters I've tracked the weather in DC and also in a New England location that I visit later in the winter.  This year I'm going to the Winter Carnival in Quebec City.  Last year I was in the southern Adirondacks the day of the MLK storm.   Hopefully going all of the way to the Laurentian mountains will prove to be unnecessary but we'll see. 

Like many here I'm still hoping for snow next weekend and later this winter.   May those proclaiming the death of the weekend effect, Alberta clippers, as well as packed isotherms on the north side of storms be dead wrong. 

 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not disputing your general point, but how many other perfect attack rainstorms have there been this winter?  I thought this was the first.  Doesn't seem like there has really been that many strong storms period other the pre-Christmas monster.

That comment wasn’t specific to here. Over the last 7 years we’ve had several comps to this pattern with a favorable longwave setup in a torched thermal regime and they all ended this way. This winter I’ve noted a lack of snow to the NW of waves even well to our north on several occasions.  

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

You know folks…. 99.9999% of people are perfectly happy with no snow….

But we continue our insanity of watching/hoping for snow knowing that most of the time we will fail, just the way it is….

That’s what we do…obsess over frozen water vapor.  Thankfully there are others or I’d feel weird.  

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3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Climate change should not be a polarizing topic on a weather board, yet somehow it is. 

Yeah, totally agree.  It's sad in so many ways that politically and otherwise, it's become a contentious issue when it shouldn't be.  Yet it has become that despite a mountain of evidence.  At this point, it would be akin to arguing that gravity isn't a thing, or that the sun actually does goes around the earth (sorry, Galileo!), etc.  You get the idea.

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50 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

The store had a full display of snow shovels so I think we’re okay. Maybe that only works in the short range though? We’ll see I guess.

There's a store nearby me that always had snow shovels out, no matter what time of year.  I even saw them in mid-summer, sitting up atop a couple of the shelves.  I guess they were hoping for the rare July 4 blizzard!

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