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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But we used to get a lot of snowstorms around here from a hudson high setup and a positive NAO.  They were very marginal in most cases...storms where the snow fell mostly at 32-33 degrees and in many cases they did mix and were like a 6" snow in DC and more NW.  Lately those setups aren't even close anymore.  A 50/50 was always necessary for the southern mid atl to get a 20" snowstorm.  But we used to be able to get a messy 6-10" storm that mixed without one from a setup like this.  Yes maybe with a true block and a locked in 50/50 this could have worked out...but man come on how much snow are we really gonna get if we need to stack this many dominoes our way to get snow?  

We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️

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1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

We’ve always gotten perfect train rain storms in DC even mid winter but now places like Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse are raining w a low off the coast in mid January☹️☹️

And Montreal could be next.

btw @psuhoffman I agree with you, and wrt that CFS map I posted I was speaking in general terms, not that I expect it to verify. I hope, yes. But expect? No. 

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9 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Could it be it’s because the Pacific Ocean is the largest body of water on earth and is consistently waaaaay warmer than it should be and is now driving the Earth’s climate?

no its because we didnt get a triple phased bomb cyclone to happen in exactly the right spot and stall and we didnt have a -4 std dv nao block with a full latitude EPO PNA ridge centered exactly where we need it with a 1050 arctic high over lake Placid and a storm that phases exactly as it reaches the NC coast and tracks to 37 miles east of Ocean City, not 36 miles, not 38 miles...it has to be 37 miles, and the deform band sets up right on top of us for 17 hours...not 16 hours because it takes at least 17 straight hours of heavy precip to dynamically cool the column.  If all that didn't happen its obvious the problem is that all that failed not because it was too warm.  

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Obviously the Pacific is warmer now than it was 40 years ago so that could add on a couple of degrees but with a trough from Alaska to Mexico, there’s nothing but Pacific air throughout the US and Canada. Is it really that different than a month like January 1990 that had the same set up but with a cooler Pacific Ocean? 

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3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Just take note of the ocean water temps Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Carribean or any other body of water in the world?   Why too do you think you are seeing the extreme events around the Buffalo area all you had to do is look at the temps of the water in the Great Lakes. 

Great point, the climate change induced record warm water temps clashing with cold enough air is leading to big lake effect snows in the Buffalo area. In the past 10 years or so it seems like early winter (Dec to mid Jan) is becoming more unfavorable. The ocean temps are warmer during this early part of winter, that has always been climo but when you warm those ocean temps even more due to climate change, that really fucks over coastal areas during this part of the winter. In the second half of winter, those temps cool off, the dominant storm track shifts south and you have canadian air masses clashing with the cooler but still well above normal ocean temps that leads to bigger storms in the second half of winter. Eventually the temps will become so warm that will become unfavorable as well, but for now it almost seems like climate change made December to mid Jan less favorable, and late Jan to mid March climo more favorable for big storms. The data indicates that we have had both more ratters and more big winters than in the past.


I wish climate change wasn’t real, and it sucks that it’s happening but I have to say, it’s quite an interesting topic trying to figure out how climate change is currently impacting our winter patterns and how it will change our winters in the future. Long term it will lead to warmer and less snowy winters overall, but there are a lot of nuances ya know? I wish this weather board in general was more open to discussing the role of climate change on our weather rather than people trying to blame everything else and avoid the topic altogether. 

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26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I've already lost productivity this week. Even right now there's something I really need to do but I'm stuck thinkin' about this mess now just because I peeked back in for a few minutes. Now I'm depressed again and can't focus.

I’m gonna say looking at the Euro run coming up might not be your best option.  You might want to pass on this one.  If you think the GFS can deal out a shit taco the Euro will serve up a shit stew.  

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22 minutes ago, George001 said:

I wish this weather board in general was more open to discussing the role of climate change on our weather rather than people trying to blame everything else and avoid the topic altogether. 

Climate change should not be a polarizing topic on a weather board, yet somehow it is. 

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43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I've already lost productivity this week. Even right now there's something I really need to do but I'm stuck thinkin' about this mess now just because I peeked back in for a few minutes. Now I'm depressed again and can't focus.

Just accept that we don't snow well here, and that the only time the ensembles really showed a good system was 9 days out, that is way too far out to get invested. If you need to get an app or chrome extension that blocks tropical tidbits, pivotal and amwx. I use one for school that is called stay focused on the chrome store. 

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mostly cover all bases flopping away from big coastal low and going to cutter again.  It might be snow and 30 or rain and 50.  We are not predicting which but give you examples of each. Whata science!!

Isn’t it up to us to look at the permutations presented by various simulations and determine what the most likely outcome is?   I’m not sure what your point is. Do you think we have the ability to make simulations that are perfectly accurate at 5-10 days and are choosing to intentionally have variability?   If so why?  

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

I am a newbie so I don't feel right doing it, but shouldn't we create separate thread for 1/13-1/14 threat. Despite the negativity on here, it is still up in the air and has MECS potential. 

Welcome - separate thread only if we are within about 72 hours and it looks like some part of the area will see snow/frozen…

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO….perhaps it will be correct but seems the model can’t decide between the Ohio valley low and a coastal transfer.  By the time it consolidates, it is too far north and off the coast for our latitude.  Transfer sooner, closer to the coast then you can worry about temps…

AD8506BF-9E1D-40B9-A20C-2AF8BCED576F.png

B811909D-92C2-489A-8382-A56151865EB7.png

 

Agreed. It is like it is trying to place bets on both scenarios happening on the same run. If a coastal low is going to develop near North Carolina, there is no way as much warmth shown here is going to flow that far north. 

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