January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Chris78]

980 low sitting off the delmarva and rain to Canada lol.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Chris78 said:

980 low sitting off the delmarva and rain to Canada lol.

If it is going to rain, may as well bomb this bad boy as low as we can and enjoy the mini-cane 

[87storms]

Just now, LP08 said:

Problem now too is the NS wave that phases with the ULL way too soon and yanks the surface to Cleveland before transfer.  

Exactly.  You need an arctic airmass in place when dealing with cutters, which (at this moment) is turning into with the HP sliding right off the coast.  The northern stream has not been in our favor the last several winters which can be seen by the lack of Alberta Clippers.

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

980 low sitting off the delmarva and rain to Canada lol.

There is almost no snow anywhere on the backside of the low, it looks like an October or April storm, not one in prime climo. 

[Blizzard Hunter]

I look at this model run and laugh. Yes i get that warm water/SE winds will lead to rain on the coast in this scenario at least initially. However, there is no way a storm that powerful would not generate it's on cold air on backside. If such a storm like this materialized and was moving ENE, many areas would turn to snow at some point. Too early to write this off in my opinion. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don’t know, still think track is key.  We don’t get snows with primary dying in Northern Ohio and secondary forming over DC…

Need that primary in Tn

[Wonderdog]

12 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Man I’m not sure I’m cut out for this hobby.  Massive rain storm in Jan and there is warm air pushing in behind it.  Warm and wet. Warm and dry.  

If we get lucky brother, we could squeeze out a few flakes on Friday before we need the Ark.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Problem now too is the NS wave that phases with the ULL way too soon and yanks the surface to Cleveland before transfer.  

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don’t know, still think track is key.  We don’t get snows with primary dying in Northern Ohio and secondary forming over DC…

25 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Exactly.  You need an arctic airmass in place when dealing with cutters, which (at this moment) is turning into with the HP sliding right off the coast.  The northern stream has not been in our favor the last several winters which can be seen by the lack of Alberta Clippers.

You're using an effect as a cause.  Let me explain.

Look at the longwave pattern setup here...

This is ideal in every single way.  Textbook.  Pacific trough off the west coast (if you look at past big snowstorms this is exactly where it typically is) PNA ridge is actually slightly east of where we want it and under normal circumstances might even indicate the threat of an off the coast track.  The SW in question is amplifying and about to go neutral as it enters the TN valley and look at the flow over the top suppressing the ability for the upper level features to lift.  

Now look at the surface...

1038 high nosing into New England with 1036 all the way down into VA.  But look at the thermal boundary.  Despite that pressure configuration look at where the thermal boundary is!  The thermal boundary is north of Chicago and already pushing north of DC and Pittsburgh before the wave even approaches!  

Surface lows will seek out the baroclinic boundary.  The upper low tracks from southern MO through the TN valley and then through southern VA.  It's a perfect track because the longwave pattern is perfect in every way.  The reason the surface low ends up north of the upper low and cuts is because the thermal boundary is way up there.  

It's just too warm.  That's it.  Why is everyone trying to find complicated excuses for what is a very simple problem.  If the thermal boundary was where it typically should be given that pressure and longwave pattern presentation (the purple line) the surface low would not cut to northeast Ohio.  The reason this system is cutting is NOT the longwave pattern or some flow in the setup its simply because its so warm that is where the thermal boundary is.  The surface low ends up meandering north of the upper level support even because of it.  There is nothing in terms of pattern features that can prevent that if its warm all the way to the upper great lakes despite a perfect longwave setup.  

[Wonderdog]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Need that primary in Tn

Yep, six days out gives us 24 hours until the models are locked in.

[Kevin Reilly]

42 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

980 low sitting off the delmarva and rain to Canada lol.

zero cold high up north this in the not-so-distant past would be 1-2 feet of snow for most locations.  What is this telling you then?  (Again, don't mean to beat a dead horse but warm warm warm off the ocean and other places to our south southwest, and southeast.  It's a dam shame because with a cold high up north this is a MECS or even blizzard for a few locations.  I will say that 981mb is getting close to a storm that can produce its own cold air?

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

If we get lucky brother, we could squeeze out a few flakes on Friday before we need the Ark.

Luck seems in short supply when it’s rain to Maine.  

[Terpeast]

When I look at this temp map, I don’t know how even a good track is going to help us. 

EDIT: it would be one thing if it was just slightly warm, like a couple degrees C AN. But +10C across the board? 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE we were talking about this as a test case for a Hudson High setup.  I think we might have the answer.  Those setups are almost never arctic air cold.  It would be almost impossible to have true cross polar flow in that setup.  They need to work with a domestic airmass.  But look at the setup on the GFS (right or wrong doesn't matter because it wasn't cold enough).

Look at the predominant airflow.  It's not straight mid lat pac puke.  The predominant flow is out of the Yukon!  Yes its mixed with the southern stream flow off the pacific but that is ALWAYS going to be true.  If polar continental air is obliterated and dominated by the pacific air that will always get mixed into the equation simple because were at the mid latitudes and the pacific is what is upstream, it's never going to work.  Even with a predominant flow that should be good enough, I am not saying truly cold, this would have been marginal in any era...but its not marginal now, its a straight torch.  Yea we can point out the strong pac jet but thats been non stop for almost a decade now.  At some point we need to just accept that as a permanent thing now.  In that paradigm this setup no longer can work.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

When I look at this temp map, I don’t know how even a good track is going to help us. 

EDIT: it would be one thing if it was just slightly warm, like a couple degrees C AN. But +10C across the board? 

Yea I think we're just cooked here.  I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us.  We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter.  But this just can't work out.  The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close.  I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore.  

ETA: it doesn't seem north america can sustain a cold profile anymore once cross polar flow is cut off.  The pacific wins and obliterates any cold from the entire continent.  This has happened over and over again in recent years.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I think we're just cooked here.  I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us.  We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter.  But this just can't work out.  The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close.  I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore.  

i don’t think it’s that. i think it’s that the 50/50 just moves out too quickly due to the lack of blocking, which is why a -NAO is so important

[yoda]

Will in the SNE forum was mentioning more about the TPV and PV lobe being the issue as well... in addition to what you two mention above in your respective posts

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I think we're just cooked here.  I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us.  We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter.  But this just can't work out.  The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close.  I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore.  

ETA: it doesn't seem north america can sustain a cold profile anymore once cross polar flow is cut off.  The pacific wins and obliterates any cold from the entire continent.  This has happened over and over again in recent years.  

Alright so it doesn't work anymore. I'm not sure it's gonna take any longer explanations to explain that further. We're screwed for the future, the entire continent is the south now. Got it.

I swear everytime I come in here it messes up my day. I was in a good mood till I came on here and read this (true but frustrating) mess. And that's my fault for even peeking in here.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think it’s that. i think it’s that the 50/50 just moves out too quickly due to the lack of blocking, which is why a -NAO is so important

But we used to get a lot of snowstorms around here from a hudson high setup and a positive NAO.  They were very marginal in most cases...storms where the snow fell mostly at 32-33 degrees and in many cases they did mix and were like a 6" snow in DC and more NW.  Lately those setups aren't even close anymore.  A 50/50 was always necessary for the southern mid atl to get a 20" snowstorm.  But we used to be able to get a messy 6-10" storm that mixed without one from a setup like this.  Yes maybe with a true block and a locked in 50/50 this could have worked out...but man come on how much snow are we really gonna get if we need to stack this many dominoes our way to get snow?  

[George001]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I think we're just cooked here.  I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us.  We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter.  But this just can't work out.  The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close.  I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore.  

ETA: it doesn't seem north america can sustain a cold profile anymore once cross polar flow is cut off.  The pacific wins and obliterates any cold from the entire continent.  This has happened over and over again in recent years.  

People are in denial and looking for reasons to blame everything except the elephant in the room…. Global warming.

[Terpeast]

I know it’s the CFS and it’s a month away. But a map like this would work so much better for us. 

[cbmclean]

So... Was Viceroy right all along?

[anotherman]

Yea I think we're just cooked here.  I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us.  We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter.  But this just can't work out.  The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close.  I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore.  
ETA: it doesn't seem north america can sustain a cold profile anymore once cross polar flow is cut off.  The pacific wins and obliterates any cold from the entire continent.  This has happened over and over again in recent years.  

Could it be it’s because the Pacific Ocean is the largest body of water on earth and is consistently waaaaay warmer than it should be and is now driving the Earth’s climate?

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

People are in denial and looking for reasons to blame everything except the elephant in the room…. Global warming.

Just take note of the ocean water temps Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Carribean or any other body of water in the world?   Why too do you think you are seeing the extreme events around the Buffalo area all you had to do is look at the temps of the water in the Great Lakes. 

[87storms]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're using an effect as a cause.  Let me explain.

Look at the longwave pattern setup here...

This is ideal in every single way.  Textbook.  Pacific trough off the west coast (if you look at past big snowstorms this is exactly where it typically is) PNA ridge is actually slightly east of where we want it and under normal circumstances might even indicate the threat of an off the coast track.  The SW in question is amplifying and about to go neutral as it enters the TN valley and look at the flow over the top suppressing the ability for the upper level features to lift.  

Now look at the surface...

1038 high nosing into New England with 1036 all the way down into VA.  But look at the thermal boundary.  Despite that pressure configuration look at where the thermal boundary is!  The thermal boundary is north of Chicago and already pushing north of DC and Pittsburgh before the wave even approaches!  

Surface lows will seek out the baroclinic boundary.  The upper low tracks from southern MO through the TN valley and then through southern VA.  It's a perfect track because the longwave pattern is perfect in every way.  The reason the surface low ends up north of the upper low and cuts is because the thermal boundary is way up there.  

It's just too warm.  That's it.  Why is everyone trying to find complicated excuses for what is a very simple problem.  If the thermal boundary was where it typically should be given that pressure and longwave pattern presentation (the purple line) the surface low would not cut to northeast Ohio.  The reason this system is cutting is NOT the longwave pattern or some flow in the setup its simply because its so warm that is where the thermal boundary is.  The surface low ends up meandering north of the upper level support even because of it.  There is nothing in terms of pattern features that can prevent that if its warm all the way to the upper great lakes despite a perfect longwave setup.  

I can see that as one of the reasons, but what then is the true cause?  I see the Pacific mentioned the most, but at the end of the day I guess it's the overall SSTs (yea, I know, climate thread).  My point re the northern stream wasn't meant to be cause/effect, but more so that we've lacked even simple clippers which by default would indicate to me our cold blasts are fewer and farther between (I'm not really sure what else it could mean other than that).  Maybe we just need an El Nino to shake things up again.

Now watch this storm trend south and east lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

I don't wanna hear another complaint about threads being unreadable--there is literally nothing to discuss of any weather importance to anybody in terms of the next week or to. We got every right to rant and rave now in whatever thread (again, nothing in the immediate to discuss). If this is our future then we all need time to process it. And yes, ranting is a part of that. May as well let it all out!

[Blizzard Hunter]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But we used to get a lot of snowstorms around here from a hudson high setup and a positive NAO.  They were very marginal in most cases...storms where the snow fell mostly at 32-33 degrees and in many cases they did mix and were like a 6" snow in DC and more NW.  Lately those setups aren't even close anymore.  A 50/50 was always necessary for the southern mid atl to get a 20" snowstorm.  But we used to be able to get a messy 6-10" storm that mixed without one from a setup like this.  Yes maybe with a true block and a locked in 50/50 this could have worked out...but man come on how much snow are we really gonna get if we need to stack this many dominoes our way to get snow?  

I share your frustration, and if we were talking March/April I would easily dismiss this system. This time of year, marginal air is good enough. We will have too see how 50/50 low plays out and how much phasing occurs and where. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I know it’s the CFS and it’s a month away. But a map like this would work so much better for us. 

yea we can still snow, hope my pessimism regarding the situation NOW isn't interpreted as a "its never gonna snow again".  But I think its becoming pretty impossible for us to get snow during "non cold" patterns when there are lots of examples in my archive of all snowstorms at BWI of a fluke snowstorm in an otherwise very warm pattern.  Those don't seem to be a thing anymore.  That's a problem when were in a warm pattern a very large percentage of the time.  

 

My other concern with these long range looks is unless my memory is wrong back around xmas didn't the period RIGHT NOW look like that on the guidance?  I thought we were supposed to "flip right back to cold" by January 10 or something back when this current torch was starting.  I was skeptical back then...arguing that historical climo data argued we probably wouldn't just flip back cold so fast...and climo usually beats guidance.  Hopefully that doesn't happen again...but the longer we go into the season warm the less likely we are to suddenly flip cold according to past records in enso neutral and cold.  Maybe the fact we have been in a more nino pattern though could mean its more likely this year than in past similar enso seasons.  Hopefully...Im grasping here.  

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright so it doesn't work anymore. I'm not sure it's gonna take any longer explanations to explain that further.

I swear everytime I come in here it messes up my day. I was in a good mood till I came on here and read this (true but frustrating) mess. And that's my fault for even peeking in here.

It’s good to step away.  Do other stuff. When the discussion is about how things look a month away you know it’s time.  Or trust me you will go insane.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s good to step away.  Do other stuff. When the discussion is about how things look a month away you know it’s time.  Or trust me you will go insane.  

I've already lost productivity this week. Even right now there's something I really need to do but I'm stuck thinkin' about this mess now just because I peeked back in for a few minutes. Now I'm depressed again and can't focus.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So... Was Viceroy right all along?

VIce and MDECOY both had a point, they were just obnoxious and ridiculous in how they presented it.  And both have a penchant to exaggerate beyond reason.   Example...was VIce right about it warming yes...but he claimed Cape May would be under water in 20 years.  And he would try to destroy every thread to force people to talk about the issue.  MDECOY was right its been bad but then he claims he has had no plowable snowstorms in 8 years.  That's just ridiculous.  I didn't engage when he said that a few weeks ago but I know where he lives...and I know there have been several storms that were like 4-6" at every reporting station around him and plenty cold enough over that period.  Just last winter where he is got like 4" from the late Janaury storm that happened overnight with temps in the 20's.  If he didn't get a plowable event from that then his roads must be heated or something.  They are bad posters because of how they engage in discussion not the main points they try to make.