DarkSharkWX Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 even with a 50/50 low it becomes a cutter probably because the storm is more amped(phases over plains), but the 11th being more north and closer to a phase is a step in the right direction as well as stronger confluence, hopefully it continues and gets picked up by other guidance. CMC looks like coastal rainstorm obv wouldnt take op runs too seriously because they are op runs and we are 7-8d out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Snow showers in Northern Alabama…..we suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Positive: Confluence better Negative: Vort stronger through the plains and phased with NS energy so it cut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The primary low transfers to a new low near.... check notes.... Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Could be a nasty flood event. Been wet lately and a 2-3”+ rain storm will probably cause issues. More flood watches this winter than winter storm watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Might be good 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Might be good Why not just...let it play out more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 CMC ends as snow for the mountains…I guess a glass half full look at that for the ski resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: CMC ends as snow for the mountains…I guess a glass half full look at that for the ski resorts. CMC is an inside runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 We got this 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: CMC ends as snow for the mountains…I guess a glass half full look at that for the ski resorts. Ya got to wipe out a bunch the base to replace it with some slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are finding more ways to fail, gonna take up a new hobby in 2050 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Next this thing is going to morph into a glorified cold front like the 2 or 3 other 'threats' we've had. I'm taking up watching paint dry as a hobby instead of winter weather from now on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is an inside runner. Yes…rain to start everywhere but mountains transition to heavy, wet snow (verbatim) from Saturday night on. This thing isn’t set in stone so I expect it could end up a cutter, a redeveloper from TN valley, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We are finding more ways to fail, gonna take up a new hobby in 2050 Man I’m not sure I’m cut out for this hobby. Massive rain storm in Jan and there is warm air pushing in behind it. Warm and wet. Warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next this thing is going to morph into a glorified cold front like the 2 or 3 other 'threats' we've had. I'm taking up watching paint dry as a hobby instead of winter weather from now on. Watching the drama of the House Speaker vote is far more entertaining than this! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Watching the drama of the House Speaker vote is far more entertaining than this! I'm really unsure right now just which is the larger trainwreck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm really unsure right now just which is the larger trainwreck. It is a very tough call for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Watching the drama of the House Speaker vote is far more entertaining than this! Let’s keep politics out of here. Don’t need the train wreck that ensues with any mention of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Let’s keep politics out of here. Don’t need the train wreck that ensues with any mention of it. Whatever. I only mentioned it because probably nearly everyone finds it amusing on some level regardless of one's views, and it's as crazy as some of these model solutions! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Last night I was going to bet on snow? Well tonight as I look at a screaming jet off the pacific and crazy ocean warmth sitting in the Gulf and off the southeast coast I’d think we will be seeing more in the way of tornado outbreaks. It wouldn’t shock me to see 70s in February with 50-65 mph winds heavy rain severe thunderstorms along with tornadoes Mid Atlantic like we saw in February 2017. I think it was that year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Yes…rain to start everywhere but mountains transition to heavy, wet snow (verbatim) from Saturday night on. This thing isn’t set in stone so I expect it could end up a cutter, a redeveloper from TN valley, etc. Some winters are just like this. We will get a big snowstorm again, and when it happens it will be 100X more satisfying………..I hope right? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Some winters are just like this. We will get a big snowstorm again, and when it happens it will be 100X more satisfying………..I hope right? . Just in a sucky state of things. It’ll snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The trend in a nutshell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Back to looking for cold air. WB 0Z CFS gives sustained cold starting the period after January 20 through February 20 (with the peak of the cold in the first part of February). EPS also has the EPO going negative at the end of its run around the 20th, We will see but our winter chances are not over yet…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Now that all guidance is depicting a phasing of the 2 shortwaves, I think we need the PNA ridge (that is progressing eastward) to be more progressive- further east so the phase occurs later. No amount of temporary confluence out in front is going to help much with marginal cold and a wrapped up bowling ball with southerly winds driving warm air up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Now that all guidance is depicting a phasing of the 2 shortwaves, I think we need the PNA ridge (that is progressing eastward) to be more progressive- further east so the phase occurs later. No amount of temporary confluence out in front is going to help much with marginal cold and a wrapped up bowling ball with southerly winds driving warm air up the east coast. Another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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