January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[dallen7908]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Would it make things better if I threw a fit and jumped off the roof? 

No but please send one if you are jumping into a 3 foot drift - make that snow drift

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Would it make things better if I threw a fit and jumped off the roof? 

Nope not at all.

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

These images are bad for mental health. Like literally how are some of you taking this in stride and not having it mess up your entireday? Smh I ain't gotten a thing done

I am having a beer, then a bit of sativa, then going on a nice hike. Get out and enjoy nature. Beautiful and peaceful, even without snow.

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa its a long weekend next weekend...take off Friday and go chase the storm if you are that upset about it.  There are healthier ways to cope.  

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

These images are bad for mental health. Like literally how are some of you taking this in stride and not having it mess up your entireday? Smh I ain't gotten a thing done

Ultimately it IS disappointing but many (not all of course) of the folks on here pick up other hobbies to fill the gaps in tracking. It can definitely be a downer...but without other activities we'd all be a dumpster fire mentally (some are!). 

I know others have recommended this to you - but you are going to find yourself being very mentally unwell if you tie all of your happiness to snow in the DC area. It's just a losing proposition 95% of the time. 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

These images are bad for mental health. Like literally how are some of you taking this in stride and not having it mess up your entireday? Smh I ain't gotten a thing done

it’s best not to get too worked up over things you can’t control. goes for stuff other than weather too

[CAPE]

This is as far as you can get from ideal up top on the Atlantic side for MA snow. Completely inverted.

I'm off to enjoy some fresh air before it gets dark.

[TSSN+]

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

while its still 8 days out and we won't know until the 11th energy gets sampled and sent into guidancde, i would still lower expectations just so that if samplation proves to be bad, you won't be as disappointed. on the bright side, at least GFS/CMC and their ensembles improved today. winter is not over after this storm too, and in the shorter range we have the 8th-9th threat that snuck up on us for the potential to be some of the region's first measurable snow

What is this stuff you keep saying about data not being sampled properly? Is this seriously still a thing in 2023?

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is as far as you can get from ideal up top on the Atlantic side for MA snow. Completely inverted.

I'm off to enjoy some fresh air before it gets dark.

It's not that far off, yea this run of the euro totally lost the 50/50 so that part is not good but there is way more right than wrong with the picture 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am having a beer, then a bit of sativa, then going on a nice hike. Get out and enjoy nature. Beautiful and peaceful, even without snow.

Go with the indica and sleep thru 18z....it's probably a healthier choice.

[DarkSharkWX]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What is this stuff you keep saying about data not being sampled properly? Is this seriously still a thing in 2023?

By sampling I mean when the energy got the 11th moves onshore and that data gets inserted into the models

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

By sampling I mean when the energy got the 11th moves onshore and that data gets inserted into the models

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

[IronTy]

Remember that time when Boston got like 500" of snow in 3wks?   Lol.  

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

Those Southwest planes ain’t worth crap ya know? Lol. 

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

Don't think so, at least in east Pacific, prob should ask someone else with more knowledge on that than me tho lmao

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

. It's just a losing proposition 95% of the time. 

Not to get super technical about it, but take the winter season as 1/4 of the year, which is 365 days. 

That gives us 91.25 days to get snow. 

But using your 95% figure, we don’t get snow on 95% of those days. 

That leaves the remaining 5%, and we get roughly 4.6 snow days. 

Well, if I’m being honest, I’d take my 4.6 snow days and run laughing all the way to the bank. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not to get super technical about it, but take the winter season as 1/4 of the year, which is 365 days. 

That gives us 91.25 days to get snow. 

But using your 95% figure, we don’t get snow on 95% of those days. 

That leaves the remaining 5%, and we get roughly 4.6 snow days. 

Well, if I’m being honest, I’d take my 4.6 snow days and run laughing all the way to the bank. 

I totally threw the 95% out as an arbitrary number and you went full math nerd on me  

But yes - 4.6 snow days sounds like a hell of a deal right now. 

[psuhoffman]

We have the PNA AO and EPA all good on the coldest week of the year. So of course we shouldn’t expect it to be cold enough to snow. 

[Kleimax]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is mind boggling to watch the snow line recede across the Eastern US as we approach peak climo

Can't believe Buffalo has no snow on the ground after the 200 inches they've received this year

[Ruin]

that snow map dont look legit lol

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have the PNA AO and EPA all good on the coldest week of the year. So of course we shouldn’t expect it to be cold enough to snow. 

Wait a minute…I see what you did there…you tried to Superman 2 us…when he was in the chamber in the fortress of solitude…they thought he lost his powers…but the others did…pretty sneaky sis

[DarkSharkWX]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Data sampling I understand. So there are no instruments gathering PAC data at the moment? 

But adding onto this - even if there is when it goes onshore we will get a lot more data of the system rather than it just being in the PAC

[IronTy]

The US and Europe needed exceptional warmth this winter to avoid natural gas price armageddon.   Call it manifest destiny.  

[chris21]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa its a long weekend next weekend...take off Friday and go chase the storm if you are that upset about it.  There are healthier ways to cope.  

I’ll be at Beech Mountain, NC for my bachelor party! Hopefully we see a couple flakes at least

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I’ll be at Beech Mountain, NC for my bachelor party! Hopefully we see a couple flakes at least

Hope you’re talking about snow

[DE2PA]

15 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The US and Europe needed exceptional warmth this winter to avoid natural gas price armageddon.   Call it manifest destiny.  

That’s one way to spin it 

[IronTy]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will keep my opinion to myself on this one. Suffice it to say, which I've said repeatedly, there is something more in play here than just AgW.

Aliens.  They practically own South America.  

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I am having a beer, then a bit of sativa, then going on a nice hike. Get out and enjoy nature. Beautiful and peaceful, even without snow.

Good for you. No beer for me just a nice heavy indica for a hike. I totally agree. Gotta enjoy life and get out there. 

[George001]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have the PNA AO and EPA all good on the coldest week of the year. So of course we shouldn’t expect it to be cold enough to snow. 

Climate change. That’s what it is, people don’t want to hear it but it is the truth. It takes more and more to go right to get snow, I’m noticing it even in SNE.