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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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28 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow.
Nothing will pan out for this month.
Heading for the Reaper.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

There are open rooms in the Panic Room. Hope to see you there…. Soon

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It’s a very wet and non typical Nina so models can’t get things right except for cutters.  Analogs from back on 12/24 showed the two week mild up with a cool/cold down two weeks later.  That starts Thursday.  Cold air is only thing that matters for DC, without it the placement and tracks of the lows  mean zero and right now models cannot predict low pressure movements anyway. 

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50 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow.
Nothing will pan out for this month.
Heading for the Reaper.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

You certainly are. 

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Pure speculation at this point, but these cutoff lows can be decent for you guys if they head east at the right latitude. They tend be slow moving so mid Atlantic/SE take advantage of any transient 50/50 first.

Ensemble members show a big mix of direct hits, NE hits, interior hits etc, as expected at this range, but solid signal this far out


.

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Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day.  I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years.  This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot.  In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day.  I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years.  This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot.  In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track.

Hopefully the MJO index will help with cold  if forecast verifies w/ a move into 8/1

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day.  I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years.  This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot.  In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track.

even 2001-2002 gave us a 3-5 inch in storm

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So there’s two possible waves in the LR. One around 11th and then the 13-15th which is what we saw at end of euro/cmc run today. I personally like our odds better for the latter.

Since it is happy hour I’ll post the 12z JMA which developed the 11th shortwave into what would have been a big event lol
feeced0c4ed10de4c11ae70a7160830e.jpg


.

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