January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Buddy1987]

Nuked by GFS 81 west. No way I’m getting pulled into this until Monday at least. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

GFS will have this thing in Bermuda next run (or Buffalo) so who knows lol.  All I know is Wisp and Canaan really need the snow so a coastal bomb is good for them (and us :)).  

I like coastal bombs very much

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's Nora actually.  My son is 8 now, and yea he likes to play in the snow but he is way more indifferent about it.  But Nora's little heart is broken by the fact is hasn't snowed yet.  

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well you DID imply that snow north and west would at least be a little more normal...and there it is 

Except snow NW is supposed to be common in a good but flawed progression with some snow here. This gave us that solution with a damn near perfect synoptic progression. 
 

@WxUSAF was just thinking looking at the snow distribution from the Gfs it looks a lot like the early Dec 1992 storm. But that storm was early Dec not the coldest week of the year and the synoptic progression of that was way way worse with a storm that initially cut way west then formed a secondary basically right over DC. 
 

This simulated the same result as we got from a severely flawed setup early Dec out of a nearly perfect progression in mid January. Yay. 

[umdterps29]

Can someone post the Kuchera just for giggles? Would love to see what it looks like for Deep Creek. They need it bad.

[WesternFringe]

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Wooooh boy, love that run for the mountains.

Yeah, I will take my 14" and run with it!  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a very positive development.  Now let's see what the Doctor has to say.

No JMA love?

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

Can someone post the Kuchera just for giggles? Would love to see what it looks like for Deep Creek. They need it bad.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Looks more like a Hurricane

I mean I have been saying for days and months how warm the oceans are this is the result!  Dumping warm air into the oceans... water takes longer to cool down then the land so maybe we have a shot in February or March?

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I like coastal bombs very much

Yep. Give us a bomb parked over Norfolk and we are dancing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, jayyy said:

All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? - joking.

In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet

Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A full phase could also do the trick. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top.

You mentioned data sampling in the PAC regarding the 2 sw's that would be responsible for the 50/50. Is this still a real thing wrt data sparse areas? I mean, 20 years ago I know that was always legit but aren't there other atmospheric measuring devices in play now? Or is this missing data really still a thing?

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the freaking Cad?

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There would definitely be some CAD at least at the beginning. Of course this is assuming this unfolds as projected, but if so, I would definitely expect a colder profile at game time.

And there is CAD at the beginning, although not super strong. I guess I see things differently but with no blocking, a transient 50-50 low hauling ass up into the NA, and a wound up low hugging the coast, not sure how HP is supposed to just sit there.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I mean I have been saying for days how warm the oceans are this is the result!

Just looked up the ocean water temp in Va Beach today. It is 47 and the mean temp for the climate period 1981-2005 was 53 for this date. Not gonna look this up at every site but Atlantic and Gulf water temps are always pretty warm relative to freezing this time of year. They are colder later in the winter which is probably one reason we are snowier late in the season as opposed to earlier.

I don’t think the sky is falling yet.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

Sloppy phase that’s too late and too far north and east. Hence the 850 low/trough is NW of us.

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I sense a PSU post after this map

He's jotting something in his log, give him a second.

[brooklynwx99]

HP looks stronger here due to slightly improved confluence. nice

seeing more NS involvement too

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I sense a PSU post after this map

I am not getting excited about that it's not even close to snow really for the I-95 crew but a week away the winds are coming right out of the east and in some cases east-southeast may want to gander at the water temps this thing needs to be further east and northeast. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

And there is CAD at the beginning, although not super strong. I guess I see things differently but with no blocking, a transient 50-50 low hauling ass up into the NA, and a wound up low hugging the coast, not sure how HP is supposed to just sit there.

I don’t necessarily think it will sit there but I think the initial temps will be colder than currently modeled. This often happens in CAD setups. I know you know that though.

[BristowWx]

 

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

at least we are somewhat in the game.  move it 50 miles east and it would be better for more of us...I think...at least W-95.

[CAPE]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t necessarily think it will sit there but I think the initial temps will be colder than currently modeled. This often happens in CAD setups. I know you know that though.

I guess I was more responding to Ji and Psu than you lol. I was agreeing with you there should be CAD initially.

[WxUSAF]

@brooklynwx99 yes, lots more N stream phasing on GEFS. Confluence maybe a hair better than 6z, bit worse than 0z.

[Terpeast]

By Tuesday-ish, I'll make a decision whether to chase this in Deep Creek/Canaan (and take my family & our sleds with me)... or stay home.

[AlexD1990]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

Raising the next generation of weather weenies right!

[Ralph Wiggum]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Count the lows. thought I was looking at a GEFS member low location panel for a minute.

Signaling a broadly occluded slp IMHO. Nothing will erode a CAD or antecedent cold airmass faster....so alot of this is making sense and coming together.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

By Tuesday-ish, I'll make a decision whether to chase this in Deep Creek/Canaan (and take my family & our sleds with me)... or stay home.

no matter what happens i can't see going to deep creek being a bad decision.  unless it really turns due east.  either way you get snow unless cutter but you will see that way in advance.  I'll drive!

[LP08]

GEFS is a pefect track of some of out biggies, from N TN to off of the NC/SC border but temps again are just not great.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

no matter what happens i can't see going to deep creek being a bad decision.  unless it really turns due east.  either way you get snow unless cutter but you will see that way in advance.  I'll drive!

Yeah, if it starts to trend colder at least on the onset and it appears we get a front end thump, I'm staying put. But if it basically shows all rain east of the blue ridge, I'm chasing. Just gotta sell the wife on this...

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Snow hole over my house in SE PA....lock it up.

[clskinsfan]

That GEFS map is pretty much textbook. Maybe not ideal placement for the HP. But Lets just get to that actual setup and I will take my chances from there.