psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Best confluence over the NE in several runs actually. Sorta bootleg, but there is a defined 50-50 through 150hrs. At this point I don’t care if it works out because Satans Arse pops out of the clouds in Nova Scotia and farts the cold air down to us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gfs looks better with more confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 blue approaching Loudoun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 holy shit 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just when I thought I was out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Snow starts at 177 hr. But it gets dicey and we lose 850s at 183 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 the changes at 500mb are hilarious--and there does seem to be a closed low in the 50 50 domain as opposed to 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 that is a really nice look at 500mb though. I’ll take that at this range the big thing this run was the positive change in the confluence. that’s the make or break feature 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Ji said: the changes at 500mb are hilarious--and there does seem to be a closed low in the 50 50 domain as opposed to 6z It's a very positive development. Now let's see what the Doctor has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Right direction…we call it victory for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This is actually the best/closest solution gfs has yet had for this storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? - joking. In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A full phase could also do the trick. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Hopefully gefs follows the leader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy shit Ok root for the full phase it is. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Hell of a rainstorm after the initial snow tho. But again..good direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? - joking. In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top. LOL, just as I post this… we get another huge change in a subsequent run. Point = proven. Precisely why we shouldn’t care about minute details this far out. It’ll probably lose it at 18z and get it back at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok root for the full phase it is. where is the freaking Cad? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 This board is a psychiatrists dream 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok root for the full phase it is. This is kinda a combo of what I mentioned this am with the 6z gfs. Some 50-50 and some northern stream phasing. But as you can see, it’s still not quite enough for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Slow mover, just like yesterday. 180-198 hours its basically parked off NC. Gonna be a nuke job for PA's northern tier/upstate NY. And rain for the whole I-95 megalopolis corridor so at least we've got that going for us. I'm still in after this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Foot of snow in the mountains, I'll take it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, mdhokie said: Foot of snow in the mountains, I'll take it Wooooh boy, love that run for the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This board is a psychiatrists dream We all are. We chase frozen water. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I sense a PSU post after this map 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 where is the freaking Cad?That high pressure in Canada is in a shitty position for starters. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I really thought we had it guys. I hate it here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: That high pressure in Canada is in a shitty position for starters. . ive seen worse...that should still be Cadding us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Foot of snow in the mountains, I'll take it Kuchera has over 2' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: I really thought we had it guys. I hate it here. try being a snow fan and a redskins fan 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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