January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO late weekend disturbance.

[Maestrobjwa]

Actually...If this one perfect tracks and rains...that's not only a problem for our climo but even further north up the corridor too...so at least we wouldn't be alone, lol I mean so far there has been a grand total of 1" for ALL the major 4 airports from BWI north! This everybody's "base state"?

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO late weekend disturbance.

We have a separate thread for this one.

@ravensrule I'm sure you meant to  the other post not this one.

[Weather Will]

Comparing WB OZ v 12Z through Th. I don’t think this will be a good run.  Much warmer.

Hopefully EPS will still be positive.  Good night.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing WB OZ v 12Z through Th. I don’t think this will be a good run.  Much warmer.

Hopefully EPS will still be positive.  Good night.

When the 540 line is near the Hudson Bay…. I’d say you’re right.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing WB OZ v 12Z through Th. I don’t think this will be a good run.  Much warmer.

Hopefully EPS will still be positive.  Good night.

EPS is also warmer and suggests mostly rain outside of the higher terrain. Big picture is we are in a progressive flow regime with limited cold available, and in order to get cold enough air in place/remain in place even with a favorable low track off the coast, we need a mechanism for confluence to our NE to keep HP in a favorable position so that some of the cold in eastern Canada can drain southward. This requires a that a vortex moving through the 50-50 region be both strong enough and in a favorable position as low approaches, but it's going to be on the move too. If it is weaker or the spacing is not good(moves away too soon) we lose the required confluence in order to keep the HP in place and we lose the cold feeding in from the north. On the latest runs that vortex is weaker/not timed as well, and HP shifts east/NE allowing milder marine air to overwhelm. This is a classic thread the needle deal for MA snow in a progressive pattern that offers limited cold air.

[CAPE]

Surface depiction from the 0z EPS run vs the 12z run. Note the differences to our north. Timing is different between the 2 runs so I used the panels where the surface low is just off the NC coast for comparison.

 

 

[BristowWx]

Hr 180-192 on 6z should be snow in mid Jan with that track.  It’s not as depicted it’s just not cold. What can you do. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I wanted to note this yesterday but for fear of debbing the board I refrained, But since guidance is now leaning more more thread the needle I jist wanted to say we aren't tapping much of a cold air source, with virtually NO SNOWPACK to our north. Sure, a transient cold HP could work for a bit but even with these perfect track looks, once mids start flooding with an amped low closing off, dynamics will work for a bit, but there isn't the help that we usually see where cold ir is locked in or keeps funneling in. I realize there is more to storm dynamics than this, alot more, but there is no denying this is a big problem now and will he a problem for the foreseeable future. Just my $.02

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wanted to note this yesterday but for fear of debbing the board I refrained, But since guidance is now leaning more more thread the needle I jist wanted to say we aren't tapping much of a cold air source, with virtually NO SNOWPACK to our north. Sure, a transient cold HP could work for a bit but even with these perfect track looks, once mids start flooding with an amped low closing off, dynamics will work for a bit, but there isn't the help that we usually see where cold ir is locked in or keeps funneling in. I realize there is more to storm dynamics than this, alot more, but there is no denying this is a big problem now and will he a problem for the foreseeable future. Just my $.02

Really great point.  My family lives north of DTW.  No snow.  None. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wanted to note this yesterday but for fear of debbing the board I refrained, But since guidance is now leaning more more thread the needle I jist wanted to say we aren't tapping much of a cold air source, with virtually NO SNOWPACK to our north. Sure, a transient cold HP could work for a bit but even with these perfect track looks, once mids start flooding with an amped low closing off, dynamics will work for a bit, but there isn't the help that we usually see where cold ir is locked in or keeps funneling in. I realize there is more to storm dynamics than this, alot more, but there is no denying this is a big problem now and will he a problem for the foreseeable future. Just my $.02

I said it several times- limited cold available. I think most folks probably get that our source region isn't very cold right now.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS is colder.  But there are more lows to the west this run that look like they transfer to the coast,

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I said it several times- limited cold available. I think most folks probably get that our source region isn't very cold right now.

you have for sure.  nothing good or bad lasts forever usually so we just watch it unfold since moving to Maine is not an option for most of us.

[Weather Will]

I may have no idea what I am talking about, but looking at the WB 6Z GFS pressure maps you can see that the model is trying to consolidate the low to the coast but it takes too long for our latitude.  Still need to see how this plays out.  With marginal cold air we need an earlier consolidated transfer to the coast.

[Terpeast]

Oh well. Not enough cold air, as that was the issue all along. 

Next time it’s D5 or shorter only for tracking. Nothing performs well beyond that. Best we can hope at this point is for something to sneak up on us like last year’s January storm. 

[Steve25]

Can someone explain in simple terms where the cold air is for this potential period? I see very very marginal chilly air the next few days, followed by the "red" on the models creeping back in, followed by a slight dip by the marginal blues again, then that storm threat you've been talking about, but with seemingly no significant source of legit cold air anywhere. To my untrained eye, it looks like even with a perfect track, this storm would need to manufacture its own cold air. There also appears to be no semblance of cold air behind this potential.  

I'm just looking at the models and having trouble seeing the potential that's being hyped up without a legitimate source of cold air. 

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Oh well. Not enough cold air, as that was the issue all along. 

Next time it’s D5 or shorter only for tracking. Nothing performs well beyond that. Best we can hope at this point is for something to sneak up on us like last year’s January storm. 

well we are not a D5 so we can still watch it.  maybe this will sneak up on us and just get some of us on the board. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Can someone explain in simple terms the cold air is for this potential period? I see very very marginal chilly air the next few days, followed by the "red" on the models creeping back in, followed by a slight dip by the marginal blues again, then that storm threat you've been talking about, but with seemingly no significant source of legit cold air anywhere. To my untrained eye, it looks like even with a perfect track, this storm would need to manufacture its own cold air. There also appears to be no semblance of cold air behind this potential.  

I'm just looking at the models and having trouble seeing the potential that's being hyped up without a legitimate source of cold air. 

 

yesterday was hyped up because the Euro showed the 50/50 in place linked with a part of the PV locking in the HP and a good track.  That gave us confluence and cold.  potential was there...still is...but you can't shovel potential. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

EPS is also warmer and suggests mostly rain outside of the higher terrain. Big picture is we are in a progressive flow regime with limited cold available, and in order to get cold enough air in place/remain in place even with a favorable low track off the coast, we need a mechanism for confluence to our NE to keep HP in a favorable position so that some of the cold in eastern Canada can drain southward. This requires a that a vortex moving through the 50-50 region be both strong enough and in a favorable position as low approaches, but it's going to be on the move too. If it is weaker or the spacing is not good(moves away too soon) we lose the required confluence in order to keep the HP in place and we lose the cold feeding in from the north. On the latest runs that vortex is weaker/not timed as well, and HP shifts east/NE allowing milder marine air to overwhelm. This is a classic thread the needle deal for MA snow in a progressive pattern that offers limited cold air.

Perfect write up but let me summarize this….

On the coldest week of the year it’s simply too warm no matter how a storm tracks and there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us. 

[H2O]

This track lays down the atmospheric memory for all our future storms. Weenie handbook says so

[Weather Will]

It’s too soon to give up.  6Z GEFS is an improvement over 0Z.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Perfect write up but let me summarize this….

On the coldest week of the year it’s simply too warm no matter how a storm tracks and there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us. 

Oh you mean this isn't good?

[anotherman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Oh you mean this isn't good?

Disgusting, infuriating, enraging, sad.....

[cbmclean]

Are there any realistic hopes for a more favorable pattern in say late January?  Obviously the current one is unlikely to get it done.

[CAPE]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Are there any realistic hopes for a more favorable pattern in say late January?  Obviously the current one is unlikely to get it done.

I made a post about this yesterday. The answer is yes there is some hope for that, but it is based on the depicted pattern progression on the latest ensemble runs in the LR plus the extended products, all highly subject to change ofc.

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Can someone explain in simple terms where the cold air is for this potential period? I see very very marginal chilly air the next few days, followed by the "red" on the models creeping back in, followed by a slight dip by the marginal blues again, then that storm threat you've been talking about, but with seemingly no significant source of legit cold air anywhere. To my untrained eye, it looks like even with a perfect track, this storm would need to manufacture its own cold air. There also appears to be no semblance of cold air behind this potential.  

I'm just looking at the models and having trouble seeing the potential that's being hyped up without a legitimate source of cold air. 

 

I don’t see much blue anywhere over any mid latitude land masses. 

[CAPE]

0z EPS- not a bad look beyond mid month, and has our next trackable threat. 

 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t see much blue anywhere over any mid latitude land masses. 

So did we transition from Pac puke fail to ++++++AO fail?  I missed the memo.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

So did we transition from Pac puke fail to ++++++AO fail?  I missed the memo.

The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.

[WinterWxLuvr]

48 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Oh well. Not enough cold air, as that was the issue all along. 

Next time it’s D5 or shorter only for tracking. Nothing performs well beyond that. Best we can hope at this point is for something to sneak up on us like last year’s January storm. 

So you don’t trust models past day 5 but you trust that a day 8 or 9 depiction of a storm that is not going to deliver snow to be correct?