Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 If it degrades even slightly the crappy air mass will be insurmountable. Eta: Well maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but truthfully there is not a lot of wiggle room.Yea.. the good thing is things always seem to break in our favor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 00z gefs has more stream separation. N/S digs more but is faster so there’s less interaction. Might still phase enough for a 50/50 low but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate the gfs with every fiber I have Ji and the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: If it degrades even slightly the crappy air mass will be insurmountable. Eta: Well maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but truthfully there is not a lot of wiggle room. So, a thread the needle type situation, so-to-speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS still looks amazing 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 gefs still gets the job done for a 50/50 low but just be wary that there’s still time and ways we can lose a 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gefs noticeably weaker at 192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS has stronger western ridging this run due to stronger trough in Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: gefs still gets the job done for a 50/50 low but just be wary that there’s still time and ways we can lose a 50/50 Pretty big move actually on the GEFS that went from a consolidated 50/50 towards more separation and less phasing among individual members....thus this change on the means. Plenty of time tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty big move actually on the GEFS that went from a consolidated 50/50 towards more separation and less phasing among individual members....thus this change on the means. Plenty of time tho. yeah tho the issue this run was just everything being weak tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Different situation but similar setup to a system we had in Dec where we were pinning hopes on a 50/50 at the same range and a transient PNA spike. I can't remember if it did the same thing ie didn't really phase in time or phased in the 50/50 area but moved out too quickly. I want to say the latter. We'll know in a few days I guess what this decides to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 50/50 low is weaker and less consolidated but the S/W is more amped this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: yeah tho the issue this run was just everything being weak tbh Not sure I agree. Western trof stronger, ridge downstream from there stronger, trof in E/SE slightly stronger/deeper. Vorticity in the stj that was going to phase with the PJ into the 50/50 just kept moving due E or slight N of E and stayed separate too long. Again, plenty of time and noise for now but we want the Euro and other guidance to move towards a better consolidated 50/50 over the next several days, not the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 At least with a stronger ridge up top over canada it’s hard to imagine this will cut. But stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Still a good signal for coastal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Still a good signal for coastal The stronger S/W is more noticeable this run 18z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Still a good signal for coastal Yep. No arguing that. Does look like we lost some of those cutter members from earlier today due to the better ridging to the N probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce… One takeaway of mine is that if we’re not going to get a solid 50/50 low, we should probably root for a weaker wave that slides under us to retain the little cold air we have. Too strong, and it pumps too much warm air up from the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce… That’s actually a good signal for that range. There will be spread holding down a mean from that lead. The bigger issue is way too many perfect track rainstorms among the members. Like p1 here. This is a rainstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 @Ji you probably hate the GFS because you start hugging it 5+ days before you should ever start taking it’s outcomes with anything more than a grain of salt. The main system we’re all tracking as the potential “biggie” is what, 9 days out? And depends partially on what the first system does. Until models - especially OPs - get that data, they are simply spitting out a wide envelop of outcomes - which is their literal purpose. Analyzing slight differences in the heights out west or the strength of the 50/50 low in SE Canada is also a waste of time this far out. Are the players still on the field? Yes. Is there still a storm? Yes. That’s all that really matters right now. We won’t get meaningful details nailed down until we are closer to the 9th-10th timeframe, and even then, we are simply shrinking the outcome envelope. Stick with a blend of the ensembles this far out (heaviest lean on EPS) to get a general idea of the setup at 500/H5. Parsing details any farther than that is a complete waste of your time. They will change 50 times between now and the 14th. What looks crappier now may very well look good tomorrow, and then back to crappy the run after. When the outcome for us is dependent on so many factors, there is literally NO USE in obsessing over the details at D9. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s actually a good signal for that range. There will be spread holding down a mean from that lead. The bigger issue is way too many perfect track rainstorms among the members. Like p1 here. This is a rainstorm! Yup, not much snow…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: One takeaway of mine is that if we’re not going to get a solid 50/50 low, we should probably root for a weaker wave that slides under us to retain the little cold air we have. Too strong, and it pumps too much warm air up from the south. Unfortunately I’m not sure if that path even exists because with the ridging over the top the weaker permutations among all 3 ensembles get squashed. That’s why the snow mean is pretty disappointing compared to the h5 and mslp looks, especially on the gefs and ggem ensembles. It’s basically 3 camps. A minority cutter camp. A minority weak suppressed. And the majority camp with a perfect track but a lot of rain storms among that group. Frankly almost all of them are rain on the 0z geps and gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce…0.4” of QPF from an ensemble is weak sauce? Interesting. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 If we actually get a perfect track 985 low on Jan 15 and it’s rain I really am done. What’s the point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: 0.4” of QPF from an ensemble is weak sauce? Interesting. . Just now, psuhoffman said: If we actually get a perfect track 985 low on Jan 15 and it’s rain I really am done. What’s the point. Water table….:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s actually a good signal for that range. There will be spread holding down a mean from that lead. The bigger issue is way too many perfect track rainstorms among the members. Like p1 here. This is a rainstorm! Never am I more annoyed with an exclamation point than when you use them...because It's always a bad thing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: 0.4” of QPF from an ensemble is weak sauce? Interesting. . Was comparing to 4 runs ago….I am fringed in western suburbs. i jinked this getting up. Will wait for EURO to put me back to sleep… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we actually get a perfect track 985 low on Jan 15 and it’s rain I really am done. What’s the point. That would be in a framed log book hanging on your wall of winter shame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Well at least we go below freezing area wide Sunday am to remind us it is winter on the EURO. WB 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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