psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just worth noting 8/10 current top pattern analogs are ninos. 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Even if this happens it would be too late and highly unpredictable as to the target zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time get back Sunday 35 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, frd said: Even if this happens it would be too late and highly unpredictable as to the target zone. Not totally true, a SSW around then in 2018 led to an amazing pattern in March and one big snowstorm and a couple other minor snows. With some luck it could have been even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between. that sounds exactly right. GEFS knows climo. anywhere but here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but it had that same spread at 12z it was just masked on the mean by that one member that dropped 40” over DC lol. I’m amused that we are discussing the snow maps. My point is that the 12Z EURO suite is much more robust for a bigger storm than any other models….hopefully it is correct. and I am subdued because we have seen the EPS and EURO flip so I am trying to keep myself from getting disappointed. Believe me if we start seeing a significant increase in GEFS, I will be happy!!! The 12Z EPS members have several hits that would make people smile… But I would caution last night’s 0Z EPS run (last picture) was not as robust so we really don’t have a trend yet even on the EPS. Bottom line is that I will keep my expectations in check until we see more consistency within models and a greater consensus among models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time get back Sunday Last pic is most definitely a dog running. Or maybe that's the ever elusive unicorn, hmmmm. Good to hear from you btw. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I’m so mad when I miss 1/2 a day of awesome analysis of our rain pattern. Please someone tell me that’s a snow pattern?? Lol. Sorry. I didn’t read one damn thing previous to my dumb ass comments right now. Other Half Brewing - DC might have something to do with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just worth noting 8/10 current top pattern analogs are ninos. hopefully we can get back to a Nina next year. This Nino has been a disaster 1 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing. I take the southern slider for 200 Alex… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time get back Sunday Hey there Bob! Those are AWESOME shots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Gimme 300 on the inside runner that no models are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Hey there Bob! Those are AWESOME shots! My phone has a cracked lens so there's always some sort of washout stuff happening. Pics are actually terrible. It's all about location with my photo posts lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS mean looks pretty good, but despite the much improved 50-50 low depiction, actually seems like there are more cutters in the individual members based on my eyeballing relative to previous runs today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WPC Day 7 map. I’ll take my chances with this look. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Exactly I want snow just as much as anyone else, but the scorch marks are taking their toll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Just worth noting 8/10 current top pattern analogs are ninos. Hollllld up...Did you just deliver positive analogs news???? *faints* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 hours ago, frd said: Interesting outcomes should an event unfold. 2009, you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: hopefully we can get back to a Nina next year. This Nino has been a disaster We're apparently in a Ninano this year! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: WPC Day 7 map. I’ll take my chances with this look. 1012 low is a weak high. That’s what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Nam wants to play ball with weekend event 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Nam wants to play ball with weekend event All of a sudden. Place faith in the NAM, Confusius says. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Just worth noting 8/10 current top pattern analogs are ninos. But how many of those were dead ratters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Someone should start a thread for Sunday. It’s short range and will help keep this focused on late week potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Someone should start a thread for Sunday. It’s short range and will help keep this focused on late week potential. Just did - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: But how many of those were dead ratters? Don't encourage him, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gfs going to be ugly for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Canadian looking better this round, GFS gonna be on an island alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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