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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho

I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time  get back Sunday :tomato:

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

Even if this happens it would be too late and highly unpredictable as to the target zone. 

 

 

Not totally true, a SSW around then in 2018 led to an amazing pattern in March and one big snowstorm and a couple other minor snows.  With some luck it could have been even better. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I counted around 7 that have a low tracking pretty far NW at least initially. Some others are pretty far SE, so quite a bit of spread. The snowfall mean reflects this as it has 2 'enhanced' areas- one over northern half of PA into SNE and another across much of VA, with most of our area in between.

that sounds exactly right. GEFS knows climo. anywhere but here. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it had that same spread at 12z it was just masked on the mean by that one member that dropped 40” over DC lol. 

I’m amused that we are discussing the snow maps.   My point is that the 12Z EURO suite is much more robust for a bigger storm than any other models….hopefully it is correct.

and I am subdued because we have seen the EPS and EURO flip so I am trying to keep myself from getting disappointed.

Believe me if we start seeing a significant increase in GEFS, I will be happy!!!  

The 12Z EPS members have several hits that would make people smile…

But I would caution last night’s 0Z EPS run (last picture) was not as robust so we really don’t have a trend yet even on the EPS.

Bottom line is that I will keep my expectations in check until we see more consistency within models and a greater consensus among models.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho

I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time  get back Sunday :tomato:

20230105_171254.jpg

20230105_171652.jpg

Last pic is most definitely a dog running. Or maybe that's the ever elusive unicorn, hmmmm.  Good to hear from you btw.

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I’m so mad when I miss 1/2 a day of awesome analysis of our rain pattern. Please someone tell me that’s a snow pattern?? Lol. Sorry. I didn’t read one damn thing previous to my dumb ass comments right now. Other Half Brewing - DC might have something to do with it.  :drunk:

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48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho

I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time  get back Sunday :tomato:

20230105_171254.jpg

20230105_171652.jpg

Hey there Bob! Those are AWESOME shots! 

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