Weather Will Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 And here's your weenie maps 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS…weekend flizzard. That is a BRUTAL cutoff just to my south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Lots of spread/timing differences for the 10th on the GEFS. I count a few that have frozen for the area; majority favor a southern slider / OTS redeveloper. We track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Agreed, but if the GFS can bust by hundreds of miles with any given precip from 5 days out, then it can be off with surface temps by 2 degrees. Of course, that works both ways. do with the information what you feel like doing with it. just saying as shown today those snow maps are probably wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 If the model with the least snow has at least an inch for us, then I’ll start to get more invested in this upcoming window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 40 minutes ago, mappy said: do with the information what you feel like doing with it. just saying as shown today those snow maps are probably wrong. Will do eta: We all don’t live in the exact same place, latitude, or elevation in this forum, so what the models show varies accordingly. God forbid I say anything positive in this MidAtlantic forum concerning short-term or long-term snow prospects. Sheesh. This is a special place! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 This sounding says probably white rain and the following 6 hr panel has me as rain so just because it says blue doesn't mean it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Temperature issues during peak climate. Edgar Allen Poe has written happier pieces than the story of this mid-atlantic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 It’s below freezing all the way down to 1000 mb. I’ll take my chances with that - GFS’ upgrade could be overdoing the warmth in boundary situations. But whatever, I’d even enjoy watching white rain in the patio lights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, H2O said: This sounding says probably white rain and the following 6 hr panel has me as rain so just because it says blue doesn't mean it will snow. It’s really close. At DCA or in the city center, probably white rain as light precip, or wet non-sticking snow under heaviest rates. N&W of the cities probably snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 56 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month. Hmm, CFS has decent wave going into 1,2. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Rather large changes for the weekend event on the euro. We’ll see where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: If the model with the least snow has at least an inch for us, then I’ll start to get more invested in this upcoming window. you don't have to get invested just yet and can keep the window shut as per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Rather large changes for the weekend event on the euro. We’ll see where it goes. Putting all the eggs into the 9th-10th basket, I don't know how that will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Rather large changes for the weekend event on the euro. We’ll see where it goes. Down a steep embankment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Down a steep embankment Into a rain soaked ditch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, LP08 said: Putting all the eggs into the 9th-10th basket, I don't know how that will work out. Euro going the extra mile to piss us off. Better cold push, so shred that wave to nothing and wait for the cold to retreat before bringing in the precipitation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Putting all the eggs into the 9th-10th basket, I don't know how that will work out. Omelettes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Into a rain soaked ditch Still failing good in 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro going the extra mile to piss us off. Better cold push, so shred that wave to nothing and wait for the cold to retreat before bringing in the precipitation. HR 168 doesn't look like a terrible set up....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow. Nothing will pan out for this month. Heading for the Reaper.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already. This is the one setup that has my interest "some". It's not a high probability but its a workable enough look and high stakes enough (if it did go right and max potential it could be the kind of storm that makes a season itself ala Feb 2006). But my god the airmass...ugh. The airmass kinda reminds me of Jan/Feb 2021 a little. Maybe you all will have to come crash up here for that one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Event at end of OP Euro is the one the ensembles have been hinting at for a few days now. Imo this is the best shot all year for a brief window for success.So many shortwaves crashing from the PAC prior my hope is that they lead to a transient 50/50 setup like the Euro has. Euro vs CMC at end of run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the one setup that has my interest "some". It's not a high probability but its a workable enough look and high stakes enough (if it did go right and max potential it could be the kind of storm that makes a season itself ala Feb 2006). But my god the airmass...ugh. The airmass kinda reminds me of Jan/Feb 2021 a little. Maybe you all will have to come crash up here for that one. Yeah, airmass is rough. Euro has a workable airmass coming in as the storm develops. GGEM looks like April at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already. yeah, this is definitely our best shot. the C Canada ridging actually leads to some nice HP over the top as well due to the initial confluence. not that convinced that the airmass will be bad if there's a nice LP off the coast there are some 1030-40 HPs in really nice spots in SE Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Yeah, airmass is rough. Euro has a workable airmass coming in as the storm develops. GGEM looks like April at 850mb.I like how Euro kind of traps the prior shortwaves in a confluence pattern over SE Canada/NE. Long way to go but good start today . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow. Nothing will pan out for this month. Heading for the Reaper. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk If this belongs even anywhere it belongs in banter Ji II is not being sought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month. Well that is looking much better than it did last week. Maybe I was ready to jump too soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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