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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Agreed, but if the GFS can bust by hundreds of miles with any given precip from 5 days out, then it can be off with surface temps by 2 degrees.  Of course, that works both ways.

do with the information what you feel like doing with it. just saying as shown today those snow maps are probably wrong.

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40 minutes ago, mappy said:

do with the information what you feel like doing with it. just saying as shown today those snow maps are probably wrong.

Will do

eta:  We all don’t live in the exact same place, latitude, or elevation  in this forum, so what the models show varies accordingly.  God forbid I say anything positive in this MidAtlantic forum concerning short-term or long-term snow prospects.  Sheesh. This is a special place!  Lol

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14 minutes ago, H2O said:

This sounding says probably white rain and the following 6 hr panel has me as rain so just because it says blue doesn't mean it will snow.  

image.thumb.png.e3079bfef294dcc85b529902450de082.png

It’s really close. At DCA or in the city center, probably white rain as light precip, or wet non-sticking snow under heaviest rates.

N&W of the cities probably snow. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

Putting all the eggs into the 9th-10th basket, I don't know how that will work out.

Euro going the extra mile to piss us off. Better cold push, so shred that wave to nothing and wait for the cold to retreat before bringing in the precipitation.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro going the extra mile to piss us off. Better cold push, so shred that wave to nothing and wait for the cold to retreat before bringing in the precipitation.

HR 168 doesn't look like a terrible set up....lol :bike:

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Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already.

This is the one setup that has my interest "some".  It's not a high probability but its a workable enough look and high stakes enough (if it did go right and max potential it could be the kind of storm that makes a season itself ala Feb 2006).   But my god the airmass...ugh.  The airmass kinda reminds me of Jan/Feb 2021 a little.  Maybe you all will have to come crash up here for that one.  

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Event at end of OP Euro is the one the ensembles have been hinting at for a few days now. Imo this is the best shot all year for a brief window for success.

So many shortwaves crashing from the PAC prior my hope is that they lead to a transient 50/50 setup like the Euro has.

Euro vs CMC at end of run

b1b1233e7aaba357fa178f3cd121badb.jpg
21211ff2825825cdd3c28f9c28623302.jpg


.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the one setup that has my interest "some".  It's not a high probability but its a workable enough look and high stakes enough (if it did go right and max potential it could be the kind of storm that makes a season itself ala Feb 2006).   But my god the airmass...ugh.  The airmass kinda reminds me of Jan/Feb 2021 a little.  Maybe you all will have to come crash up here for that one.  

Yeah, airmass is rough. Euro has a workable airmass coming in as the storm develops. GGEM looks like April at 850mb.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro, GGEM, and GEFS all have a pretty similar look D8-9 with a developing storm in the Plains, brief PNA spike, and “some” high pressure nosing into the Lakes and northeast. This is the time period that has been advertised for several days already.

yeah, this is definitely our best shot. the C Canada ridging actually leads to some nice HP over the top as well due to the initial confluence. not that convinced that the airmass will be bad if there's a nice LP off the coast

there are some 1030-40 HPs in really nice spots in SE Canada

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh204-252.thumb.gif.8949b54df7385d9130d8b2cc0df3a21c.gifgfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.thumb.png.024883d1e24739452417c29ac807dcbb.png

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24 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Might as well start a February Mid/Long Range thread at this point. January is cooked for the Mid-Atlantic. Forget about measurable snow.
Nothing will pan out for this month.
Heading for the Reaper.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

If this belongs even anywhere it belongs in banter

Ji II is not  being sought. 

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