AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18z gfs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: 18z gfs Who cares about January 9th? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, PCT_ATC said: Who cares about January 9th? i'm just posting a map lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i'm just posting a map lmao Got snow in it….post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: Where is Will with his % maps. Lol Please no 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If this lines up with the MJO 8-1 as depicted for this time frame, we could probably get another wave with the right pieces in place, including cold air. Maybe the first week of February. Fwiw but the Euro weeklies have negative 2m temp anomalies spreading across much of the lower 48 towards mid Feb as the mean trough shifts into the central US, with a -EPO and neutral/slightly +PNA. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: 18z gfs 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Looks like 18z GFS gonna miss the tpv phase with the 11th wave…. However there is better confluence vs 12z and main wave isn’t as strong so maybe it still works out? We’ll see…Here are differences in Atlantic vs Euro and 18z GFS… still lots to sort out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Looks like 18z GFS gonna miss the tpv phase with the 11th wave…. However there is better confluence vs 12z and main wave isn’t as strong so maybe it still works out? We’ll see… Here are differences in Atlantic vs Euro and 18z GFS… still lots to sort out . Man, if I was high right now and stared at this.... 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Looks better up top, but still not Euro-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Man, if I was high right now and stared at this....I’ve been staring at it for 10 mins . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Who cares about January 9th? NAM shows nothing for 1/9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, if I was high right now and stared at this.... Well the op GFS HAS been high, so it would be a high looking at a high looking for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Next Euro/eps/gefs vs Gfs/cmc... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has less confluence in the northeast than it did at 12z I actually think it looks a bit better. a TPV lobe sits over SE Canada and acts to lower heights over the NE, so the HP is stronger than 12z there also isn't any phasing with the northern stream. let's see where it goes. not going to be the ECMWF, but it's still workable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 either way, the ensembles are king at this range. just seeing a vigorous SLP and strong HP in SE Canada is half the battle. also, the GFS OP blows. it has been performing horribly this winter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Next As @brooklynwx99 said, a couple things a little better, couple little worse. At D9 it’s basically a hold on it’s crappy solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The features at 84 hrs we are looking for upstream to work into our 50/50 look decent at least. GFS was pretty close to a good solution wrt to that but just mistimed the phase offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Didn't someone say they wanted to move to North Carolina not too long-ago LOL! Come on now we know better we all know where this will be in 4-5 days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Euro/eps/gefs vs Gfs/cmc... I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs That sums it up. Nice post… tough combo to beat at D9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 gefs looks better this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Please no I’m more conservative this year and very busy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I will put $ on Euro/eps/gefs How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How much we talking? And what are we using to measure verification? I know a guy that might be interested. Hmmm my first initial thought was to keep it conservative like $20.00 lol. I am sure if we did this especially this year we would fail knowing the track record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 38 minutes ago, Xeonon said: I’ve been staring at it for 10 mins . Hey Xerox pass the blunt this way 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS actually has stronger confluence. looks great Is stronger confluence a good thing tho? (thinking about suppression) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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