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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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This is obviously still a D9 event with all associated caveats, but as we’ve seen today, what happens around the 10-12th is critical to setting up confluence and any semblance of a workable airmass. That shortwave actually enters the CONUS over California in 72 hours! Here it is north of San Francisco.

E3B471C2-8244-4492-A68E-49A29BD99266.thumb.png.e26a8748d0f5b3347a9a853fcdbfbf97.png

24 hours later it’s out over the Plains.

2D4BF5C4-D7F7-4976-B7AE-7814033D3726.thumb.png.72a359b4e1958c19ffcc4621f144b07c.png

At the same time, the piece of the PV it merges with is swinging south on the west edge of Hudson Bay. So the table setters, so to speak, are not far off.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS/EPS/Euro combo is a pretty solid team. Just need it to hold for awhile.

I think the most important thing is to see the 50/50 signal strengthen. if we have that, then this threat is legit. if not, it becomes a lot harder to pull off

hopefully we have more clarity by the end of the weekend. I do like this event more than the late December one, though. the ridge axis is much more ideal for a coastal storm

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the most important thing is to see the 50/50 signal strengthen. if we have that, then this threat is legit. if not, it becomes a lot harder to pull off

hopefully we have more clarity by the end of the weekend. I do like this event more than the late December one, though. the ridge axis is much more ideal for a coastal storm

so really, we're probably gonna know how this storm pans out with the energy around the 12th given its our table setter

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the most important thing is to see the 50/50 signal strengthen. if we have that, then this threat is legit. if not, it becomes a lot harder to pull off

hopefully we have more clarity by the end of the weekend. I do like this event more than the late December one, though. the ridge axis is much more ideal for a coastal storm

There's a cap on how strong we want the 50/50 though, right?

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Latest GEFSX and Euro weeklies have a similar pattern progression beyond mid month, with the deep trough along the west coast splitting off from the negative anomalies over AK as a ridge develops. This causes the trough to progress eastward into the western/central US as the lower heights near AK retrograde into a more favorable position near the Aleutians. Pretty good agreement and a decent h5 look for the east coast.

1674950400-jCGCqYOnRyA.png

1674950400-hbWljb1QU2E.png

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSX and Euro weeklies have a similar pattern progression beyond mid month, with the deep trough along the west coast splitting off from the negative anomalies over AK as a ridge develops. This causes the trough to progress eastward into the western/central US as the lower heights near AK retrograde into a more favorable position near the Aleutians. Pretty good agreement and a decent h5 look for the east coast.

1674950400-jCGCqYOnRyA.png

1674950400-hbWljb1QU2E.png

If this lines up with the MJO 8-1 as depicted for this time frame, we could probably get another wave with the right pieces in place, including cold air. Maybe the first week of February.

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