Interstate Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: that fringed humor got a lot less funny when I moved up this way and we actually started getting...fringed. Yeah but now you are in the Fringed zone and not the rain zone. I would take your chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I’d rather have the low tracking too far to our SE at this range than it show a flush hit given the 500mb evolution. Plenty of room for things to work out with this setup. Maybe it’s not a KU, but it’s likely somethin’. Now let’s get some ensemble support. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 i mean... this is pretty classic stuff here, no exaggeration. let's see if we can start to nail that 50/50 down on the ensembles 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 EURO: 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, DE2PA said: EURO: As long as we aren't riding like Russell Wilson. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 You guys say that big ones get sniffed early … I think this may very well be a big one. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, osfan24 said: As long as we aren't riding like Russell Wilson. If the Euro does a hard flip to mid 50’s and 3 1/2 inches of rain. I will swap this out for Russ cooking up a shit sandwich. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Honestly, I love the thrill of the hunt for the big storms even though they average like 5-7 years apart. But that’s a classic look on the Euro and it buried central VA verbatim. I just want a crawling storm and let the chips fall as they may. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, jayyy said: Days 8-10 (GEFS / EPS ensembles) Days 5-7 (euro, with a lean on the CMC/Ukie for similarity confirmation) Days 3-5 (GFS / Euro - less euro as we approach D3) Days 1-3 (NAM / GFS - outcome typically splits the two in some way shape or form) Damn, this is one of the best posts I've seen here in months! Kudos. I'm no expert on models, and know almost nothing about their skill, but this seems like a great way to track without getting burned too much. So to recap the 12z runs... - ensemble mean goes south of us - Op GFS cuts with 50s and rain - Op Euro dumps 2 ft over NC & S central VA, cold solidly in the 20s - Canadian? Who cares until we get under 7 days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 not really sure if there's much of a better longwave setup. strong S/W crossing the US into confluence 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The fact that @Bob Chill has remained quiet is really all anyone needs to know at this point. When he pops in, it's go time. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 EPS at 186. I don't need to see the rest. I am sure there will be some stupid solutions in there. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, LP08 said: EPS at 186. I don't need to see the rest. I am sure there will be some stupid solutions in there. Gotta admit that one made me stand at attention. Not bad. Few days to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS at 186. I don't need to see the rest. I am sure there will be some stupid solutions in there. Probably one of the best maps I've seen this winter. This is a trip canceller for sure for me. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 50/50 low is way better this run! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 wow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: that fringed humor got a lot less funny when I moved up this way and we actually started getting...fringed. The joke is it doesn’t happen as often as I reference it and in the end over longer periods it doesn’t matter because for every fringe there are 5 storms that we get more. But…the fringe is real. I’m at the northern edge of this forum at 1100 feet. If we’re discussing a legit threat for the greater DC/Balt forum then by far the bigger risk to me getting left out is for a fringe. Odds of it shifting so north I get all rain are slim. Fringes happen here usually at least 1 a season but in a normal season they are offset by 4 storms we stay snow and south mixed. Last year was an anomaly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 holy shit 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Wow, strong signal continues to stay on EPS with many members having a 50/50 low 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: wow Worth noting zero members showing a cutter. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 hehe not saying anything similar is going to happen... just noting that setups like this can produce very large storms from NYC southward 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: hehe Don't you dare (please do) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The joke is it doesn’t happen as often as I reference it and in the end over longer periods it doesn’t matter because for every fringe there are 5 storms that we get more. But…the fringe is real. I’m at the northern edge of this forum at 1100 feet. If we’re discussing a legit threat for the greater DC/Balt forum then by far the bigger risk to me getting left out is for a fringe. Odds of it shifting so north I get all rain are slim. Fringes happen here usually at least 1 a season but in a normal season they are offset by 4 storms we stay snow and south mixed. Last year was an anomaly. I am sure it was. Then again, since it was my first year up here. let's just say that Jan 3, 2022 thing that gave 9 inches give or take Loudon over to DC up to Columbia area while we get about a 1/4 of an inch...left a mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 just for fun, please don’t believe this !! 5 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hehe not saying anything similar is going to happen... just noting that setups like this can produce very large storms from NYC southward That's quite uncanny!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 50/50 low is way better this run!Let’s get into the D7ish range with that look on the ensemble and we may be in business! After that, we look for the Euro OP to show something similar in the D5-D7 range and the GFS inside D5. That’s when we know things could truly be coming together. All of that aside, if we’re just analyzing THIS run, it doesn’t really get much better than that. That’s likely a slow mover too. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The fact that [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] has remained quiet is really all anyone needs to know at this point. When he pops in, it's go time.It’s too far out for BC to get invested. He doesn’t track storms outside of the D5-7 window nowadays. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: It’s too far out for BC to get invested. He doesn’t track storms outside of the D5-7 window nowadays. . makes sense to wait. Now if we see Wes in here...then we know its getting real 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Wow, strong signal continues to stay on EPS with many members having a 50/50 low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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