January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

[Ralph Wiggum]

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it 

[BristowWx]

13 hours ago, AtlanticWx said:

i don’t get why this forum is so negative when tracking storms. yes we’ve had a lot of misses but not every storm works out. imo tracking is really fun and always coming in with low expectations for each storm just kinda ruins the whole vibe of winter storm tracking yk. even if it misses u won’t be happy you were right that nothing happened, just enjoy tracking while you can even if the storm suddenly becomes a buffalo blizzard or a fish storm

no hate just an observation with the mojo of this forum compared to say 33andrain

Not sure either. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS….model still figuring out track…

We all know how this is going to end

[StormyClearweather]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it 

Right where we... want... it?

[WinterWxLuvr]

All about timing. If whatever stops this cut in its tracks is in place a bit sooner …

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You can't win...you can't break even...you can't even quit the game!! 

(A Murphy's type law, don't remember who originated it, but it's quite appropriate!!)

[Its a Breeze]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it 

And folks are getting all bent out of shape, lol

It clearly doesn't know what to do with this storm yet. We still have plenty of time before panicking....

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Its a Breeze said:

And folks are getting all bent out of shape, lol

It clearly doesn't know what to do with this storm yet. We still have plenty of time before panicking....

 

Canadian pretty much doing the same thing

[Ji]

coastals that go to Cutters almost always end up back at Coastals

[Ji]

as always....it wont matter till the Euro shows the same thing. the Icon showed a favorable solution with a more robust 50/50 low

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2023010512&fh=180

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

go back to the piano dude.

 

@psuhoffman Global Warming Alert. This is heavy rain in Mid January

"Go back to the piano" I don't know if you meant that as an insult, but if you did  All I said was that it was the 50/50 (or in this case lack therof) that made the difference, that's all

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

coastals that go to Cutters almost always end up back at Coastals

I’ll go one further … cutters that slam on the brakes over central Ill/Ind don’t do that at all and end up on a track that works for us. 1040 highs don’t usually disappear in 6 hours either

[DE2PA]

Someone start the ‘23 Lawn Care thread yet?

[Heisy]

It all comes down to what the prior event does, if the tpv phases with it we have a 50/50 and a snow chance, if it doesn’t it will cut. Period… no in between.

One positive from 12z runs is the ukie was phasing tpv so maybe some hope for Euro


.

[Kevin Reilly]

23 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

at least it's warm rain!

All about wind flow off the warm Atlantic or Gulf death to snow chances around here.  near 60 degrees at Cape Hatteras and still in the mid and some places upper 70's in the Gulf.  The oceans Pacific, Gulf, and Atlantic right now are wrecking our snow chances and the wind flow off of those warm bodies of water.  We need a plunge of arctic air to create the monster storm I suppose. 

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it 

Sounds like the models are in chaos to me which is better than nailing down a Cutter to Hudson bay all solutions are on the table LOL but that is the reality.  Wiggum rule though could it be?

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh jeez, GGEM on the cutter parade too all of a sudden.

 

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This was wrong, but way too warm and wrapped up now

IMO the bigger issue here why we don't get a frozen event out of the GGEM/GFS 12z permutation is simply a lack of enough cold.  YES if we want to drill down to specifics the failure of the Jan 11 system to phase into a sub 960 bomb cyclose and stall in exactly the perfect location is why it went from a cold enough to not cold enough solution this run.  But take a step back for a second...if we are relying on a complicated multiple stream phase into a super bomb cyclone that stalls in exactly the perfect location to get cold enough to snow...well umm...come on man.  Was that ever really something we were expecting to go down exactly like that?  

 

What happened this run is the phase didn't happen but we still ended up with enough confluence to our northeast, a 1040 high, and the correct wave spacing such that the system is forced under us.  The storm tracks from St Louis to Georgia then the Outer Banks and up off the coast.  The problem is there just isn't any cold air.  It's raining to Canada with a low off the coast of NC!  If there was even just anything close to a normal January airmass in front of this...with a 540 line like near DC v up in Quebec, this would be a frozen event at least to some degree in our area.  Sure focus on the failure of a perfectly placed triple phased bomb cyclone to drive cold 1000 miles due south in front of the system if you want.  But if the only way for us to get snow is through some ridiculous nonsense like that...well ya know my take.  

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

go back to the piano dude.

 

@psuhoffman Global Warming Alert. This is heavy rain in Mid January

Yea I know, but I'm trying real hard not to go on and on about this and annoy everyone...but damnit crap like this isn't helping.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll go one further … cutters that slam on the brakes over central Ill/Ind don’t do that at all and end up on a track that works for us. 1040 highs don’t usually disappear in 6 hours either

The track isnt the problem, the high isnt the problem.  The point of a "perfect track and high" is to create the "flow" needed to get cold air or keep cold air over us during the storm.  If there is simply no cold air it doesn't matter.  What good is a NE flow if the air to our NE is warm also?  The issue here is some past runs phased a super bomb to our NE which created a ridiculous northern fetch behind it and drilled what cold there was way up in Canada all the way down into our area in front of the storm.  This run that feature wasnt there and so all we have to work with is what we usually 99% of the time will have to work with which is whatever air mass is immediately to our north...and its crap.  

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman, I agree as you know. But yeah, I’d hope the fresh 1040mb high pressure in a perfect spot could do SOMETHING useful. 
 

On a happier note, GEFS has a much more robust 50-50 feature and looks workable so far.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It all comes down to what the prior event does, if the tpv phases with it we have a 50/50 and a snow chance, if it doesn’t it will cut. Period… no in between.

One positive from 12z runs is the ukie was phasing tpv so maybe some hope for Euro


.

It didn't cut though. It wobbled around like a drunken sailor and ended up off the SE coast. You are partly correct- we need to have a mechanism for confluence to our north or HP is going to exit stage right. The big picture issues are the progressive flow regime and lack of true cold air. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, I agree as you know. But yeah, I’d hope the fresh 1040mb high pressure in a perfect spot could do SOMETHING useful. 
 

On a happier note, GEFS has a much more robust 50-50 feature and looks workable so far.

But is it a step down from yesterdays GEFS runs?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

But is it a step down from yesterdays GEFS runs?

Someone else will have to check the digital blue report, but I like the surface and H5 evolution so far through hr192.

[Ji]

[mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention], I agree as you know. But yeah, I’d hope the fresh 1040mb high pressure in a perfect spot could do SOMETHING useful. 
 
On a happier note, GEFS has a much more robust 50-50 feature and looks workable so far.

The op models have been brutal to us this year...and unfortunately they have been right

[psuhoffman]

On a more positive note...the GEFS went the other way, still has more phasing with the Jan 11 system which leads to an even stronger 50/50 feature 12z v previous runs...and a colder look for the threat on the 15th.  So a better/colder outcome is very much still on the table.  But my point is still valid... even if we do actually get the ridiculous course of events needed here to get snow...doesn't change the fact that I would like it if we didn't need crazy rare things to all happen perfectly in a convoluted domino setup for us to simply get a snowstorm. 

I would like to just see a freaking simple wave slide under us and have it be cold enough to snow without some crazy progression.  

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks great. no need to panic lmao

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Someone else will have to check the digital blue report, but I like the surface and H5 evolution so far through hr192.

Better surface depiction than the last several runs.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On a more positive note...the GEFS went the other way, still has more phasing with the Jan 11 system which leads to an even stronger 50/50 feature 12z v previous runs...and a colder look for the threat on the 15th.  So a better/colder outcome is very much still on the table.  But my point is still valid... even if we do actually get the ridiculous course of events needed here to get snow...doesn't change the fact that I would like it if we didn't need crazy rare things to all happen perfectly in a convoluted domino setup for us to simply get a snowstorm. 

I would like to just see a freaking simple wave slide under us and have it be cold enough to snow without some crazy progression.  

Didn't we get this last January? (About a year from Tuesday in fact) Jan 2019...didn't that slide under us and gave DC a foot? (And let's not forget the one that slid TOO far under us a month before and nailed SOVA/NC). It still happens...

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS looks great. no need to panic lmao

That actually looks better than 0z, lol

[Its a Breeze]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But my point is still valid... even if we do actually get the ridiculous course of events needed here to get snow...doesn't change the fact that I would like it if we didn't need crazy rare things to all happen perfectly in a convoluted domino setup for us to simply get a snowstorm.

What we want doesn't match the geography of our area...

99% of our storms are crazy rare things happening at the right time.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

What we want doesn't match the geography of our area...

99% of our storms are crazy rare things happening at the right time.

Yeah, and some good ones just sneak right up on us at the last possible minute. Like last year. 

And (not directed at you - but in general) no need to panic, but no need to get super invested at this point. We still have a trackable event next week, and that's all we can say for now.