CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers. We are still at the 'general idea' stage. Low pressure developing off the SE coast, with marginally cold air available. Going forward as the models figure out the subtle interactions between the key features, we will get a better idea of exactly where low pressure will form/whether there will there be multiple lows involved/will there be enough cold air available for the lowlands etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 Never take comfort in a south and east solution is my line of thinking. It matters not what the temps are at that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Best look of the season. The two previous events were more thread the needle but this does have a little more cold available. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never take comfort in a south and east solution is my line of thinking. It matters not what the temps are at that point. That's kinda where I'm at too. Not buying into this until we some more north solutions...Don't wanna get in the business of trying to will something north from Georgia. I mean, we ain't dealt with a ton of suppression this season yet, but all it would take is that 50/50 we need being TOO strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like our 2 minor potential events in the mid range went POOF. Too fast of a flow. Maybe some mangled wet passing flakes Sunday night but temps are still marginal. Other system races/slides South that will be one of the player for the Jan 14ish system. 6z GFS brought back the minor snow deal for Sunday night. 6z Euro has it too at the end of the run. With marginal cold, should it occur the overnight timing might allow for a little stickage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS brought back the minor snow deal for Sunday night. 6z Euro has it too at the end of the run. With marginal cold, should it occur the overnight timing might allow for a little stickage. 6z icon too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Time to start a thread. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never take comfort in a south and east solution is my line of thinking. It matters not what the temps are at that point. In fairness, one should never take comfort in a flush hit solution or a north and west solution either. In general, never take comfort. And, man, this board lives up to that. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, North Balti Zen said: In fairness, one should never take comfort in a flush hit solution or a north and west solution either. In general, never take comfort. And, man, this board lives up to that. Even until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, North Balti Zen said: In fairness, one should never take comfort in a flush hit solution or a north and west solution either. In general, never take comfort. And, man, this board lives up to that. And exactly what one takes comfort in is location dependent ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never take comfort in a south and east solution is my line of thinking. It matters not what the temps are at that point. 1200’ elevation in the Blue Ridge not worried about temps. Got to get that precip here! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Time to start a thread. It’s close…maybe tomorrow am if it’s still a thing by then? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 so many indies smoke us between EPS, GEFS & GEPS. two of them have like 30-40” here lmao. obviously won’t verify but tells you the ceiling of the 15th threat 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s close…maybe tomorrow am if it’s still a thing by then? That sounds reasonable. This is the one that always had some sneaky potential imo. What mostly makes it work is that NS shortwave digs a bit more it moves across Hudson Bay. I mentioned yesterday it was a little too flat and north, but if it tracked a bit further south we might get a little colder and a better track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1200’ elevation in the Blue Ridge not worried about temps. Got to get that precip here! Finally, somebody gets it. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where ya thinking about chasing? Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's kinda where I'm at too. Not buying into this until we some more north solutions...Don't wanna get in the business of trying to will something north from Georgia. I mean, we ain't dealt with a ton of suppression this season yet, but all it would take is that 50/50 we need being TOO strong. Well the operational GFS was way north. It literally almost cut. That is if we are talking about the second threat (1/13-1/15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Well the operational GFS was way north. It literally almost cut. That is if we are talking about the second threat (1/13-1/15) At least it’s the GFS. If this were the Euro, it’s lights out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's kinda where I'm at too. Not buying into this until we some more north solutions...Don't wanna get in the business of trying to will something north from Georgia. I mean, we ain't dealt with a ton of suppression this season yet, but all it would take is that 50/50 we need being TOO strong. In my experience it's always better to have a threat north and west of us on the GFS a week out vs. south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: In my experience it's always better to have a threat north and west of us on the GFS a week out vs. south and east. really? NW a week out? ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: really? NW a week out? ok Bet. Remember I gave up on tracking storms and am tracking the SER these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, IronTy said: In my experience it's always better to have a threat north and west of us on the GFS a week out vs. south and east. You are 100% correct. If this was opposite day. Under no circumstances, does that ever work out for us, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z ICON keeps a snowy solution on the table for Sunday and that's all the details that make sense to pull away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: You are 100% correct. If this was opposite day. Under no circumstances, does that ever work out for us, lol. 60% of the time it works every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Some 30,000 foot thought this morning Good, the high latitude pattern (which I’m including the prevalence of a Hudson high here) is good enough we probably will continue to have hope for these random systems to cut across and if we get lucky time up with cold. It’s a long shot pattern but not completely hopeless like it would be if we had a raging positive AO like 2020. Bad, the PNA spike, if we can even call it that, is super temporary. It leads to one shot and then we go back to a very warm look. The hope that the pacific was going to quickly morph to a more favorable look is fading. I really hope we hit on one of these long shot threats the next 10 Days or it could get insufferable in here if it’s Jan 20th with no measurable snow and nothing but torch on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z GFS also keeping hope alive for Sunday - need some help on surface temps though 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 GFS serving mashed potatoes for Sunday dinner 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some 30,000 foot thought this morning Good, the high latitude pattern (which I’m including the prevalence of a Hudson high here) is good enough we probably will continue to have hope for these random systems to cut across and if we get lucky time up with cold. It’s a long shot pattern but not completely hopeless like it would be if we had a raging positive AO like 2020. Bad, the PNA spike, if we can even call it that, is super temporary. It leads to one shot and then we go back to a very warm look. The hope that the pacific was going to quickly morph to a more favorable look is fading. I really hope we hit on one of these long shot threats the next 10 Days or it could get insufferable in here if it’s Jan 20th with no measurable snow and nothing but torch on the horizon. You forgot the ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: You forgot the ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Pretty borderline but it does the job verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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